The scale of revenue jumped, and the aquaculture business dragged down the current performance, and maintained the "buy" rating. Aonong Bio released its three-quarter report for 2021: the company's Q3 realized operating income of 5.102 billion yuan (+ 57.15%) and net profit of-340 million yuan (- 307.02%). In the first three quarters of 2021, the company realized revenue of 13.322 billion yuan (+ 81.62%) and net profit of-503 million yuan (- 200.12%). The release of the company's new pig production capacity has been accelerated since 2021, but due to the sharp decline in pig prices, high costs and performance, the company has lowered its profit forecast for 2021-2022. Pig prices are expected to rebound by the end of 2022, and the company's production capacity will continue to release superimposed costs, raising its 2023 profit forecast. It is estimated that 2021-2023 net profit will be 1.295 billion yuan (the previous forecast is 1.659 pound 1.643 billion yuan), EPS-0.29/-0.97/1.89 yuan, and the current share price is corresponding to PE-36.4/-10.8/5.5 times. The integrated layout of the company's industrial chain, breeding upstream and downstream business profitability and provide stable cash flow, coupled with the breeding business cost control effect continues to show, maintain the "buy" rating.
The scale of live pigs increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the slaughtering business helped the downstream extension 2021Q1-Q3 company to produce 2.0512 million pigs (+ 166.90%), with an income of 2.784 billion yuan (+ 40.51%).
Among them, 648500 fattening pigs (+ 281.58%) had an income of 1.276 billion yuan (+ 77.20%), 1.2452 million piglets (+ 126.25%), an income of 1.117 billion yuan (+ 9.91%), and 148400 breeding pigs (+ 282.09%) with an income of 347 million yuan (+ 86.46%). Dragged down by the sharp decline in pig prices, the gross profit margin of the company's 2021Q1-Q3 farming business fell to 2.37% (- 52.39pct). The company extends to the downstream slaughtering and food business of aquaculture business ahead of time to enhance overall profitability. 2021Q1-Q3 slaughtering and food revenue is 1.12 billion yuan (+ 991.97%).
The volume and price of feed products rose at the same time, and profits increased significantly compared with the same period last year
Benefiting from the substantial increase in pig stock during the year, the company's feed product sales increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and 2021Q1-Q3 's feed business income was 7.446 billion yuan (+ 66.51%). At the same time, the company responded to the rise in feed raw material prices with an increase in product prices, with a gross profit margin of only 6.32 per cent lower than in the same period in 2020. In terms of breakdown, the average sales prices of pig feed, poultry feed and aquatic feed in the first three quarters of the company were 3695.76, 2978.52 and 4391.05 yuan per ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 9.43%, + 15.21% and + 10.43%, respectively. The company's feed business shows a strong growth momentum, escorting the company's stable cash flow, supporting the integrated development of the company's industrial chain and realizing the bottom scale leapfrogging.
Risk tips: pig prices continue to fall, feed raw material prices are high, the expansion of production volume is not as expected, and so on.