Events. On October 28, 2021, the company disclosed the third quarterly report of 2021, of which the operating income was 822 million yuan (YOY15.08%) and the profit was 108 million yuan (YOY-3.45%).
Comments:
Revenue and profit in the third quarter alone are under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2021, revenue was at a gross margin, and the company's operating revenue increased by 15.08% year-on-year, but gross profit fell 1.68% year-on-year due to a year-on-year decline in gross profit margin (8.01pct). On the expense side, the expense rate declined 5.64pct compared with the same period last year (mainly because the sales expense rate decreased 6.83pct, the management expense rate increased 1.29pct, and the R & D expense rate and financial expense rate changed little compared with the same period last year). In addition, the income tax rate decreased by 4.12pct compared with the same period last year, so the final homed net profit decreased by 3.46% compared with the same period last year, and the homed net profit margin decreased by 2.51pct.
In terms of Q3 in 2021, the company's operating revenue fell 3.02% year on year, which was slower than the growth rate of Q1/Q2 revenue performance (Q1/Q2 revenue growth rate was 57.28% less than the same period last year). In addition, gross profit margin decreased 8.25pct year-on-year, expense rate decreased 7.13pct year-on-year (sales expense rate decreased 8.21pct, management expense rate increased 1.48pct). The financial expense rate decreased 0.49pct), so the return net profit margin decreased 1.23pct compared with the same period last year, and the home net profit decreased by 13.28% compared with the same period last year.
We believe that the company's Q3 revenue performance is under pressure month-on-month / year-on-year, while the decline in net profit margin may be related to rising raw material costs and increased product market fees. With the arrival of the peak season of Q4 hot food oat sales, the company's Q4 sales are expected to pick up.
Hot food oats have strong rigid demand properties. The company's pure oatmeal series mainly includes green oatmeal series, organic oatmeal series and oat + oatmeal series; compound oatmeal series mainly includes Western Australian sunshine milk oatmeal series, balanced nourishing oatmeal series, middle-aged and elderly nutritious oatmeal series and so on. In addition, in the first half of the year, the company launched 5 black grain oatmeal, high fiber oat bran, a variety of nut oats, etc., to improve and enrich the variety of hot food oat products. We believe that the company's total growth of 14.32% in pure oats and compound oats in the first half of 2021 reflects consumers' pursuit of health. In addition, pure oat / compound oat products also have stronger rigid demand and customer stickiness. In the future, with the upgrading of consumption / consumers' continuous attention to product functionality, and the continuous improvement of the company's related product types, the company's hot oat products still have a steady demand and a good room for growth.
The second growth curve of cold food oats has higher long-term growth. The company's cold food series of oatmeal mainly includes wheat crispy fruit extract series, baked oatmeal series, oat crispy series and so on. In the first half of the year, the company continued to launch probiotic oats and finger-sucking oats around the needs of consumers, and continued to enrich a series of products with different flavors.
Form the product matrix, at the same time upgrade the original product, the upgraded product does not contain white granulated sugar, the taste is richer and the taste is more crisp. We believe that cold oatmeal as the company's second product curve, on the one hand, it tends to be more casual snacks and has high growth in the future, on the other hand, it can also expand the company's consumer groups and channel types, and further enhance the company's collaborative competitiveness in the oat market.
The cost investment lays a solid foundation for future development. In the first half of 2021, the company gives full play to the advantages of the whole industry chain, continues to consolidate and enhance the dominant position of hot food oats, makes every effort to accelerate cold food oats as the company's second curve growth pole, and actively carries out product upgrading and channel construction. further stimulate the internal vitality of the organization through organizational change and equity incentives; at the same time, increase brand investment, official brand spokesman, enhance brand reputation. We believe that although the company's net profit performance is weaker than revenue performance in the first three quarters, the relevant investment can lay a better foundation for future development, taking into account the company's leading position in the oat field and offline dominant position. It is optimistic that the company's hot and cold food oat business will go hand in hand in the future and continue to gain a larger market share.
Profit forecast and investment advice. With reference to the three quarterly reports, we update our previous profit forecast and estimate that the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.491.310 billion yuan, respectively, and the return net profit will be 1.38 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit will be 1.54 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.62, 0.69 and 0.76 yuan per share, respectively. Combined with the comparable company valuation, the company will be given a PE valuation of 25-30 times in 2022, with a reasonable value range of 17.25-20.70 yuan per share, and will continue to be rated as "better than the market".
Risk tips. (1) the risk of food safety, (2) the intensification of market competition, (3) the expansion of new products and new channels is not as expected.