2021Q3 achieved revenue of 189 million yuan, year-on-year-65.01%, net profit of 19.7757 million yuan, year-on-year-87.69%, and non-return-to-mother net profit of 18.8329 million yuan,-87.86% of the same period last year. The company's performance declined sharply, mainly due to the high base performance of the company due to the rush installation of wind power last year. We are optimistic about the long-term development of wind power under carbon neutralization and other policies, and taking into account the pressure on the company's short-term performance, we have lowered the 202lb net profit forecast for 2022 to RMB 183 million (the original forecast is RMB 360 million), increased the forecast for 2023 to RMB 281 million, and lowered the company's target price to RMB 37, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The time for the rush to install wind power has passed, and the company's Q3 performance has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. 2021Q3 achieved revenue of 189 million yuan, year-on-year-65.01%, net profit of 19.7757 million yuan, year-on-year-87.69%, and non-return-to-mother net profit of 18.8329 million yuan,-87.86% of the same period last year. The company's performance dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the decline of wind power subsidies in the same period last year, which promoted the strong installation of wind power. As a first-tier wind power composite manufacturer in the industry, sales received a huge boost. Wind power rush installation time has passed, the company's performance under short-term pressure, do not change the wind power plate long-term high growth logic.
Benefit from the lightweight trend, automotive composite products are expected to increase. Under the policy background of energy saving and emission reduction, the process of automobile lightweight is developing rapidly. Glass fiber composites are expected to replace some traditional metal materials with the advantages of high strength, high temperature and corrosion resistance and good processability. The life anxiety of new energy vehicles will also accelerate the permeability of composites in the passenger car market. At the same time, considering the steady increase in domestic construction machinery sales, the application of composite materials in this field will also grow at the same time. We predict that the domestic composite market for passenger cars and engineering vehicles will have a market space of 12 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan respectively in 2030. As a domestic leader, the company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the market space.
The long-term development of wind power is expected to promote the company's performance. Against the background of carbon neutrality, we predict that by 2060, clean energy will account for more than 90% of China's energy structure, of which wind power is expected to account for 25%.
Sales of wind power products such as the cabin cover of the company are expected to increase significantly.
Risk factors: wind power installation continues to be lower than expected; the price of glass fiber composite fluctuates greatly; the penetration rate of composite material in the market is not as fast as expected.
Investment suggestion: in the context of carbon neutralization, the performance of the company's wind power-related products has a large incremental space, at the same time, the automotive composite market is rapidly cultivated under the lightweight demand, we are optimistic about the huge growth space of the company's income from a long-term point of view. Taking into account the pressure on short-term performance, the net profit forecast for 2021 in 2022 is reduced to 183 million yuan (the original forecast is 307 million yuan), the new forecast is 281 million yuan in 2023, and the company's target price is reduced to 37 yuan (corresponding to 2021 34xPE, reference to comparable company valuation) to maintain the "buy" rating.