Event: according to the company's three-quarter report for 2021, from January to September, the company achieved operating income of 1.834 billion yuan, an increase of 37.54% over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 326 million yuan, up 40.10% from the same period last year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was 321 million yuan, up 45.73% over the same period last year; basic earnings per share was 0.82 yuan, up 26.15% over the same period last year.
Q3's operating income is growing rapidly and its net profit is growing strongly. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 1.834 billion yuan, an increase of 37.54% over the same period last year and 52.07% over the same period in 2019.
Quarter by quarter, 2021Q1, Q2, Q3 revenue increased by 29.10%, 14.82%, 75.33% Q3 revenue rapid growth. During the period, the company achieved a net profit of 326 million yuan, an increase of 40.10% over the same period last year, and a significant increase of 18.55 pct over the same period last year (+ 21.55%). Among them, Q1, Q2, Q3 single-quarter return net profit growth rate was 25.75%, 53.95%, 38.74% strong growth rate of Q2 and Q3 performance. The company is a high-quality leading enterprise in the field of rail survey and design, with a substantial expansion of business scale and a high increase in revenue performance in the first three quarters of 2021. According to the seasonal characteristics of the survey and design industry, the annual revenue performance scale is worth looking forward to.
Gross profit margin and net profit margin are higher than the same period last year, and performance pay expenditure affects the level of cash flow. 2021Q1-Q3 's gross profit margin was 37.93%, up 2.10 pct from a year earlier. During the period, the company's expense rate was 12.22%, a decrease of 0.94 pct over the same period last year, of which the sales expense rate, management expense rate and R & D expense rate decreased by 0.08,0.36 and 0.64 pct, respectively. During the period, the company achieved a net interest rate of 17.99%, an increase of 0.14 pct over the same period last year. The company has sufficient money, and the capital on hand at the end of 2021Q3 is 783 million yuan, accounting for 17.84% of the total assets. With the expansion of the company's business scale, accounts receivable and contract assets increased to 255 million yuan and 1.422 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 83.07% and 76.74% respectively over the same period last year. During the period, the company had a net operating cash outflow of 249 million yuan, an increase over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in performance pay for employees during the period.
The urban rail design leader has abundant orders on hand, giving priority to the release of urban rail construction demand, and the multi-layout has achieved remarkable results. The company is a high-quality leader in the field of urban rail transit design, with the highest qualification of double Class An in the survey and design industry, sufficient experience in major and complex projects, significant technical competitiveness, sufficient controlling shareholder projects, and significant advantages in project resource channels. According to the announcement, at the end of 2021H1, the company has orders on hand of 12 billion yuan, which is 6.4 times of 2020 revenue, and the future performance is highly deterministic. The outline for the Construction of a Traffic Power and the outline for the Planning of the National Comprehensive three-dimensional Transportation Network both make requirements for the construction objectives of urban rail transit. The new and adjusted plans for multi-land rail transit have been approved, and the investment of lines under construction in the mainland has reached 4.52893 trillion yuan by the end of 2020. According to the 14th five-year Development Plan of Guangdong Comprehensive Transportation system, Guangdong will invest about 2.002 trillion yuan in major transportation projects during the 14th five-year Plan period, including 880 billion yuan for rail transit. The company is based in Guangdong, the national layout, is expected to fully benefit from the release of national rail transit market demand, market share can continue to increase. In addition, the company takes rail transit as the core, horizontally develops the business dimension, actively participates in complex development projects with rail transit stations as the core, extends business to many areas such as architecture and municipal design, and undertakes a number of projects. and extend the length of the business chain, the layout of civil air defense project general contracting, continue to create new business growth points, the comprehensive strength continues to improve.
Valuation and investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the future growth of the company and raise our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, 3.063 billion yuan and 3.675 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, up 31.0%, 25.0% and 20.0% respectively over the same period last year. Net profit reached 382 million yuan, 483 million yuan and 590 million yuan, up 33.3%, 26.3% and 22.3% respectively over the same period last year. The EPS is 0.96,1.21,1.48yuan respectively, the dynamic PE is 19.6,15.5and 12.7times, and the PB is 3.4,2.8,2.3times respectively. The "buy-A" rating is maintained and the target price is 26.4yuan.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations; epidemic control is not as expected; policy promotion is not as expected; fixed investment is declining; personnel turnover; local government financial performance is not as expected.
