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抄底or避险?港股基金仓位分歧巨大,首尾相差超30%

Digging the bottom or taking refuge? There are huge differences in Hong Kong stock fund positions, with a difference of more than 30% between beginning and end

券商中國 ·  Nov 1, 2021 08:24

Since February this year, Hong Kong stocks have undergone considerable adjustments, and there have been obvious differences in the operation of Hong Kong equity funds. Specific operation direction, many Hong Kong stock funds reduced the weight of the Internet plate, increased the allocation of new energy direction. XIAOMI Group-W, Meituan-W, Tencent and other Internet technology stocks have suffered a substantial reduction in fund holdings, while China Electric Power, China Resources Power Holdings, China Longyuan Power Group Corporation and other power stocks have received more positions.

Due to the continuous decline in Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stock funds are generally having a hard time this year, with a number of funds falling by more than 15% this year, and even some funds fell by about 20% in the third quarter alone. Some fund managers said frankly in the three quarterly reports: "Thank you investors for continuing to support our fund in such a difficult quarter. As a manager, I am very moved." "

In the face of market correction, from the three quarterly reports, the stock positions of Hong Kong stock funds vary greatly, with the highest reaching 94.79% and the lowest only 64.10%, with a difference of more than 30 percentage points between the beginning and the end. Some funds choose to reduce positions to avoid risk, some funds fall more and more buy, and some funds choose to remain unchanged to cope with changes, maintaining the basic stability of positions and positions.

Specific operation direction, many Hong Kong stock funds reduced the weight of the Internet plate, increased the allocation of new energy direction.$XIAOMI Group-W (01810.HK) $$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $$Tencent (00700.HK) $A number of Internet technology stocks have suffered significant reductions in fund holdings, andChina Electric Power (02380.HK) $$China Resources Power Holdings (00836.HK) $$China Longyuan Power Group Corporation (00916.HK) $And so on a number of power stocks have been more positions.

Copy the bottom of or to avoid risk, and the positions of Hong Kong stock funds are divided.

In the third quarter of this year, under the negative influence of policies in education, real estate, Internet and other industries, Hong Kong stocks remained weak, includingHang Seng Index (800000.HK) $Down 14.75%Hang Seng Technology Index (800700.HK) $It fell by 25.18%. Individual stocks$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $Down 57.55%$Bilibili Inc.-SW (09626.HK) $、阿$BABA-SW (09988.HK) $And Tencent fell by 46.97%, 35.36% and 20.99% respectively.

In the face of such a large level of adjustment, there are differences in the operation of Hong Kong stock funds, some funds choose to reduce positions to avoid risk, some funds fall more and more buy, taking advantage of the adjustment to attract a large number of funds in the secondary market.

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For example, Zhang Kun's Yi Fangda Asia Select recently released three-quarter results, and its stock position rose to 92.29% from 89.91% at the end of the second quarter, an increase of 2 percentage points. Specifically, the top ten heavy stocks of the fund are all Hong Kong stocks, and their positions have been increased.$China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) $Hong Kong stocks, making it the largest heavy stock, in addition, Tencent,$JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $$China Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) $Wait for a number of Hong Kong stocks to be increased.$PICC Property and Casualty (02328.HK) $$China Vanke (02202.HK) $Newly entered the list of the top ten heavy stocks selected by Yi Fangda Asia.

Southern Hong Kong Best selection, managed by Bikai, also significantly increased its stock position, with the share market capitalization of the fund rising from 88.16% to 93.55% of the fund's net worth, an increase of 5 percentage points. Kuaishou Technology-W, which made a sharp pullback, was favored by Bikai. For the first time, it directly jumped to the largest heavy stock by the fund, accounting for 6.71% of the fund's net value. Huaxia audio-visual education, which is greatly affected by the bad policy, has also received a substantial increase in the position of Bikai.

Bi Kai believes that the sharp market adjustment in the third quarter of 2021 is mainly due to the marginal slowdown in China's economic growth and policy changes in some industries superimposed by downward consumption. Looking to the future, the most important policy risk of suppressing Hong Kong stocks has been basically released, and the adjustment of industry policy will have a positive impact on the long-term development of China's economy.

However, compared with the above-mentioned fund managers' courage to go against the trend, there are obviously more cautious fund managers. About nine Hong Kong stock funds reduced their stock positions by more than 5 percentage points in the third quarter, and some even reduced their positions by nearly 20%.

For example, the stock positions selected by Huaxia Greater China enterprises have dropped sharply from 91.39% to 73.54%, a decrease of nearly 18 percentage points. In addition, a number of Hong Kong stock funds, such as Jianxin emerging Markets selection, Warburg Zhiyuan, Castrol overseas China stocks, and Haifutong Greater China Select, significantly reduced their positions in the third quarter, by more than 10 percentage points.

Huang Fang, a selected fund manager for Huaxia Greater China Enterprises, said in the third quarterly report that he avoided reducing positions in industry stocks with large short-term policy risks and strong uncertainty in the future, and increased their holdings in companies with sustainable performance and long-term logic. Specifically, the fund reduced its holdings of ANTA Sports Products, Li Ning Co. Ltd., Shenzhou International Group and Tencent, while Hagia Medical and Country Garden Services Holdings increased their holdings.

On the whole, the stock positions of the above Hong Kong stock funds vary greatly, with the highest Huatai Perry Asian enterprise reaching 94.79%, and the lowest Jianxin emerging market preferred only 64.10%, with a head-to-tail difference of more than 30 percentage points.

Reduce the position of Internet, increase the position of new energy

In the face of market adjustment, in the direction of operation, many Hong Kong stock funds have reduced the weight of the Internet sector and increased the allocation of new energy direction.

For example, Xu Cheng, a fund manager selected by Guo Fu Greater China, said that in the third quarter, the performance of the Hong Kong market was mediocre. In terms of overall strategy, the fund reduced the weight of the Internet sector and increased the allocation of new energy operators. According to the three quarterly reports, Tencent, the largest position before, has withdrawn from the top 10 stocks of the fund, and China Resources Power Holdings has newly entered the top 10.$Datang New Energy (01798.HK) $$China Longyuan Power Group Corporation (00916.HK) $Wait for the position to be increased.

Fund managers selected by Jianxin emerging Markets began to adjust their portfolios in the third quarter, increasing the allocation of undervalued Hong Kong stocks, being optimistic about the development of new energy-related sectors, and actively selecting high-quality medical services and biomedical targets. Specifically, Tencent, Meituan-W, JD.com, NetEase, Inc and other Internet stocks have been transferred out of the top 10 positions of the fund, while China Energy Construction, China Water, and CGN New Energy have become the top three major positions of the fund.

Overall, according to wind data statistics, since the third quarter, XIAOMI Group-W, Meituan-W, Tencent and other Internet technology stocks have encountered a larger reduction in the fund holdings. Among them, XIAOMI Group-W has the largest number of reduced shares, as high as 178 million shares. according to the average transaction price in the third quarter, XIAOMI Group-W has been reduced by 4.469 billion yuan; if you look at the total market value of its holdings, Tencent has been reduced by the fund the most, as high as 44.203 billion yuan.

Correspondingly, China Electric Power, Huaneng International Power shares, China Resources Power Holdings, CGN Power Co.,Ltd. and other power stocks have received more positions. Among them, China Electric Power has the largest number of shares increased by the fund, up to 713 million shares, while Huaneng International Power shares, China Resources Power Holdings and CGN Power Co.,Ltd. have increased their holdings by more than 150 million shares.

After a sharp correction, how to invest in Hong Kong stocks?

Obviously, Hong Kong stock funds are having a hard time this year. Many funds have fallen by more than 15% this year, and even some funds have fallen by about 20% in the third quarter alone. In the face of the pressure of a sharp pullback in performance, many fund managers choose to exchange investment ideas and operational ideas with investors through three quarterly reports.

For example, he Qi, a fund manager at Huatai Perry Asia, said frankly in the three Quarterly report: "Thank you for continuing to support our fund in such a difficult quarter. As a manager, I am very moved." "

He said that Hong Kong stocks have experienced almost three quarters of decline, the main decline is likely to be over, and then there will be a slow bottom-finding process. Among them, the probability of bottoming out in the real estate and education sectors is greater, while financial stocks are believed to perform slowly as the economy stabilizes. For the most popular Internet sector in the market, the bottom is still uncertain, whether the antitrust will continue, whether the overall performance will be temporarily weakened due to the influence of policy, and whether this temporary weakness will become a long-term impact, we also need to observe and evaluate. Therefore, the whole fourth quarter may be a turning point in the future trend of Hong Kong stocks.

Policy impact is a high-frequency word in the three quarterly reports of Hong Kong stock funds. Wang Shicong, a fund manager for the growth of Southern Hong Kong, said that the underlying premise of dealing with policy changes is based on: we believe that the policy is not targeted at a certain industry / company / entrepreneur. It is only aimed at solving a certain social problem in a variety of ways. So what we are concerned about is whether the core business model of the industry will be affected, or whether it will incidentally affect other industries, and how the impact will be assessed after this problem is solved. We will reprice each company based on the above analysis, and then make investment decisions.

For the Internet industry, Wang Shicong believes that the current situation is very similar to 2018, when the game version number was suspended for half a year, a large number of APP was removed from the content, and the draft Law on the Promotion of Private Education was issued, but these policies were originally intended to be regulated after the rapid development of the industry to promote a higher level of development of the industry. Facts have proved that after the introduction of the policy, the network is purified and youth games are effectively controlled. The status of private higher education has been recognized and developed actively. This policy also revolves around game krypton gold, bad cultural guidance, anti-monopoly, protection of the interests of grass-roots employees, data security, and so on. We believe that after the regulation of the industry, these industries will develop better for a long time. Some companies will also regain growth momentum and flourish on a more valuable road.

Huang Fang, a selected fund manager for Huaxia Greater China Enterprises, expressed her optimism on growth stocks. She believes that the fundamentals of many growth companies have not deteriorated, but are only affected by negative market sentiment or passively sold, leading to a sharp fall in stock prices. Some even hit a "golden pit", which is a good time to buy bargains. Extreme pessimism and panic selling are likely to be accompanied by a phased bottom, and after pessimism, the share prices of quality companies in good industries will be the first to rebound.

Edit / Corrine

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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