Event: the company released its three-quarter report of 2021, with revenue of 960 million yuan (+ 8%) and net profit of 42.81 million yuan (- 44.5%) in the first three quarters, of which 21Q3 achieved revenue of 350 million yuan (+ 6.9%) in a single quarter and net profit of 11.29 million yuan (- 59%), in line with market expectations.
High-end + medium-and low-end products jointly drive steady revenue growth. 1. According to the category, the tonnage of fresh bean products is driven by the tonnage of fresh bean products and the quantity of plant protein drinks in the first three quarters. The promotion effect of high value-added products is good, and the whole soybean milk has entered the channels such as box horse, Dingdong (Cayman) Limited, Shangchao and so on, and will further strengthen its promotion in the fourth quarter; high-end tofu has also launched Mai tasting, wheat pot stew and other products. The middle and low-end products adopt the sub-brand of Aunt Cai, covering 14 items. 2. From a sub-channel point of view, the growth rate of the Shang Chao model has slowed down due to the impact of the new retail platform and community convenience stores, while the distribution model and direct sales model have maintained growth.
Raw material costs generally upward stack preferential policies to stop, profitability has declined. The overall gross profit margin was 27.1%, down 10.5pp from the same period last year, mainly due to: 1) the price of raw materials generally increased, and the prices of soybeans and steam rose by about 25% and 60% respectively over the previous year. 2) implement the new accounting standards to include the transportation expenses originally included in the sales expenses into the operating costs, while driving the sales expense rate down to 14.7% by 3.9pp. Excluding the influence of the accounting standards, the sales expense rate decreases. 2. In terms of expense rate, the management expense rate and R & D expense rate are 4.8% and 0.8% respectively, which is basically stable, and the R & D investment is increasing; the financial expense rate is 0.6%, which is lower than that of the same period last year (0.7pp), mainly due to the reduction of interest in the current period. The overall net interest rate was 4.4%, down 4.2pp from the same period last year, mainly due to the low base of various costs and expenses affected by the national preferential policies in 2020, and returned to normal in 21 years.
Start the process of getting out of the Yangtze River Delta, and the industry's leading position continues to be consolidated. The signing of the Cooperation Framework Agreement with Guizhou Longyuan Sheng Bean Industry is the first step for the company to step out of the Yangtze River Delta; previously, the company has signed a Cooperation Framework Agreement with Nanjing Fruit Food, marking a substantial step forward for the company to explore the mode of investment expansion. 1. Through management output and mode grafting to enhance the influence of the invested enterprises, the company can also make use of the existing resources of local brands to rapidly expand new markets in Jiangsu and Guizhou; local well-known brands and ancestral brands work together to lead the development of the bean products industry. 2. Most of the bean products are regional brands, and the expansion of equity investment can solve the problems of long construction cycle, high risk of heavy asset investment and fierce competition with foreign brands. 3. Substantial steps have been made in the expansion outside the Yangtze River Delta. In the future, we will continue to expand in different places with the mode of equity investment, continue to consolidate the company's leading position in the bean products industry, and the logic of medium-and long-term development will be further strengthened.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 72.46 million yuan, 90.82 million yuan and 110 million yuan respectively, the EPS is 0.58,0.73 yuan and 0.91 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 39 times, 31 times and 25 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: soybean prices continue to rise; the project landed or fell short of expectations.
