Events:
Aonong released three quarterly results: the total operating income in the first three quarters of 2021 was 13.322 billion yuan, an increase of 81.62% over the same period last year. The net profit returned to the mother was-503 million yuan, from profit to loss, with a profit of 502 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, the total operating income in the third quarter was 5.102 billion yuan, an increase of 57.15% over the same period last year. The net profit returned to the mother was-340 million yuan, from profit to loss, with a profit of 164 million yuan in the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The number of live pigs has risen sharply, and low pig prices are a drag on performance. The pig cycle maintained a downward trend in the third quarter, and pig prices fell further, entering the industry-wide loss, and fell to around 10 yuan / kg at the end of the third quarter. Affected by this, the company's net profit in the third quarter was-340 million yuan, and the loss was further aggravated compared with the second quarter. The total net profit in the first three quarters was-503 million yuan (including 175 million yuan in impairment of assets). In terms of the number of pigs, 2021Q3 produced 792000 live pigs, which was + 144.4% compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters, a total of 2.051 million pigs were produced, which was + 157.2% compared with the same period last year, and the number of live pigs increased significantly. According to the 21-year equity incentive plan target volume of 4 million, the first three quarters completed 51%, the company slowed down the pace of the column is mainly due to the slump in the pig market in the second and third quarters. By the end of the third quarter, the company's productive biological assets increased by 58.0% over the same period last year.
Pig feed sales have increased significantly, and the feed plate is booming. In the first three quarters of 2021, the national pig production recovered rapidly, and the feed demand increased greatly. The company's feed sector revenue increased by 76.9% in the first half compared with the same period last year, and continued to improve in the third quarter. Although due to the rise in the price of feed raw materials, feed gross profit margin decreased slightly, but the company's sales volume increased significantly, and it is expected that the income and profit of the feed plate for the whole year will increase significantly.
The equity incentive scheme promotes the rapid increase of aquaculture and feed sales. According to the company's equity incentive plan for 2021, the company's pig production target for 21-23 is 400 × 750 / 10 million pigs, and the feed sales target is 270 × 360 hectare, respectively. The scale of the company's breeding and feed plate is expanding rapidly, and with the gradual decline of breeding costs, the company's performance is expected to improve significantly after passing through the pig cycle.
The profit forecast and investment rating estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 192.1xxx41.17 billion yuan, the net profit of return to the mother will be-6.1xxx 2.960 million yuan, the EPS will be-0.9pm 0.34.3 yuan per share, and the corresponding PE will be-/ 35.4 PE 2.5 times respectively. The results show that the profit forecast and investment rating of the company will be-2.96 billion yuan per share, 0.34.3 yuan per share and 2.5 times respectively. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
The risk suggests that the company's performance is lower than expected; the spread of the epidemic affects the column; feed raw materials