The readings of this report are as follows:
The growth of electricity generation drives revenue, and the rise of coal prices is a drag on performance; if you take a stake in 37.19% of the group's new energy platform, the investment income is expected to continue to thicken the company's performance; electricity prices above and below coal prices, thermal power profits hit bottom and rebound.
Main points of investment:
Investment suggestion: the company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 78 billion yuan, an adjusted increase of 19.32% compared with the same period last year; the net profit from its mother was 1.62 billion yuan, which decreased by 57.47% from the same period last year, with an increase of 2.96% from the same period last year; and the net profit from its mother was-1.77 billion yuan, down 229.9% from the same period last year after adjustment, and the performance was in line with expectations. Due to high coal prices, soaring costs, and taking into account the later decline in coal prices, the new energy companies with 37% stake in the company have brought about an increase in investment income, reducing 2021 and maintaining 2022, raising EPS to 0.03 EPS in 2023 to 0.55 shock 0.67 yuan (formerly 0.49 shock 0.55 shock 0.59), giving the company an industry average of 10 times PE in 2022, raising the target price to 5.50 yuan, and maintaining "increasing holdings".
The growth of electricity generation drives revenue, and high coal prices are a drag on performance. The company's 2021Q3 generation capacity was 56.483 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 6.35% year-on-year after restatement, mainly due to tight power supply and demand and an increase in thermal power utilization hours. High coal prices push up costs and drag down performance. The average daily price of Q5500 thermal coal produced in Qinhuangdao is 1142 yuan / ton, an increase of 98.55% over the same period last year. The operating cost of the company is 26.87 billion yuan, an increase of 41.8% over the same period last year, and a gross profit loss of 2.34 billion yuan.
Participate in 37.19% of the group's new energy platform, investment income is expected to continue to thicken the company's performance. 2021Q3 achieved an investment income of 757 million yuan, an increase of 631 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly benefiting from the company's participation in 37.19% of the group's only new energy platform through the integration of new energy assets with Fuxin Development, increasing the installed capacity of new energy rights and interests. By the end of March 2021, Fuxin Development New Energy Holdings has installed 14.9 million kilowatts, and the rapid development of Fuxin Development is expected to continue to thicken the company's performance.
Electricity prices above coal prices, thermal power profits hit bottom will rebound. After the National standing Committee raised the floating ceiling of market-oriented electricity prices, the latest market transaction electricity prices in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places rose by 20% in October. Under tight power supply and demand, electricity prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, and the proportion of electricity prices of high energy-consuming enterprises will far exceed 20%.
On the other hand, the NDRC has recently introduced a number of measures to ensure that coal prices return to a reasonable range, and coal pit prices, port prices and futures indices have all peaked and fallen.
Risk factors: electricity prices rose less than expected, coal prices fell less than expected.