The company reported for the third quarter of 2021, the main financial data are as follows:
In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 5.58 billion yuan, up 80.1% from the same period last year. The net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies was 1.29 billion yuan, up 1146% from the same period last year. After deducting non-profits, the net profit of shareholders of listed companies was 1.28 billion yuan, up 1145% from the same period last year. The net cash flow generated by operating activities was 3.43 billion yuan, an increase of 138.5% over the same period last year.
Basic earnings per share was 1.07 yuan, an increase of 1146% over the same period last year. The weighted average ROE is 15 per cent (up 13.98 pct from a year earlier).
In the third quarter of 2021, the company realized operating income of 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of 39.76% from the previous month, and an increase of 133.57% over the same period last year. The net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies was 660 million yuan, an increase of 43.79% from the previous month, and an increase of 7065% over the same period last year. The net profit after deduction was 660 million yuan, an increase of 47.65% month-on-month and 7265% over the same period last year.
The growth in the third quarter was mainly due to a further rise in coal prices.
In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved coal production of 10.422 million tons, an increase of 16.97 percent over the same period last year; coal sales of 10.7867 million tons, an increase of 11.2 percent; sales revenue of 5.215 billion yuan, an increase of 87.46 percent over the same period last year; coal cost of 1.639 billion yuan, an increase of 38.3 percent over the same period last year; coal sales gross profit of 3.576 billion yuan, an increase of 123.96 percent over the same period last year. In the methanol business, methanol output reached 322400 tons, up 1.98 percent over the same period last year; sales volume was 326400 tons, up 4.54 percent over the same period last year; sales revenue reached 600 million yuan, up 50.47 percent over the same period last year; methanol cost was 661 million yuan, up 37.03 percent over the same period last year; and gross profit in the first three quarters decreased by about 22 million yuan over the same period last year.
In the third quarter of 2021, the company achieved coal production of 3.5638 million tons, an increase of 6.7% over the same period last year; coal sales of 3.6888 million tons, an increase of 4.8% over the same period last year; sales revenue of 2.345 billion yuan, an increase of 143.11% over the same period last year; and coal cost of 6.
800 million yuan, an increase of 51.42% over the same period last year, and a gross profit of 1.736 billion yuan from coal sales, an increase of 208.57% over the same period last year. In methanol business, methanol output reached 95100 tons, up 1.34 percent over the same period last year; sales volume was 100300 tons, up 4.11 percent; sales revenue was 197 million yuan, up 73.22 percent over the same period last year; and methanol cost was 251 million yuan, up 58 percent over the same period last year.
The growth rate of methanol cost rose further in the third quarter, with a 21% increase in gross profit.
The average price of coal in the first three quarters was 483 yuan / ton (+ 68% compared with the same period last year), and the average price in the third quarter was 636 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan / ton (or + 42.66%) compared with the second quarter. The average price in the first half of the year was 404 yuan / ton, and the price in the third quarter was 231 yuan / ton (or + 57%) higher than that in the first half. In terms of cost, the average cost of sales in the first three quarters was 152 yuan / ton (+ 24%), and the average cost in the third quarter was 165 yuan / ton, an increase of 40 yuan / ton (or + 32%) over the second quarter, and 145 yuan / ton in the first half of the year. 20 yuan / ton (or + 14%) in the third quarter compared with the first half. Previously, we expected the company's third-quarter results to be better. From a gross profit point of view, the gross profit in the third quarter reached 1.74 billion yuan (1.84 billion yuan in the first half of the year), which is close to the overall gross margin in the first half of the year. The average gross profit per ton of coal reached 471 yuan per ton in the third quarter, up 46. 5% from the previous quarter.
71%, up 194% from the same period last year, and gross profit margin rose 2 percentage points month-on-month to 74%.
The increase in coal prices has widened further, and the company's profits are expected to remain high. Dongsheng Q5200 raw coal pit mouth price increase further broadened, the average price in the third quarter was 867 yuan / ton, up 220 yuan / ton (or + 34%) compared with the second quarter, as of October 22, 2021, the price further rose to 1639 yuan / ton, the overall high. Recently, with intensive policies in the coal industry, increasing production and supply and price regulation and control, port coal prices have declined. In the medium and long term, the coal industry has entered an era of supply shortage, demand can still maintain a small positive growth, mismatch between supply and demand may be a frequent occurrence during the "14th five-year Plan" period, coal prices are expected to remain high, and corporate profits are expected to maintain a high level.
Profit forecast and valuation: according to the company's production and sales in the first three quarters, we predict that the company's annual output in 2021 will be 14 million tons, with a production and sales rate of about 105%. The average price in the third quarter will be 636, and the average price in the fourth quarter will be even higher, with the annual average price expected to reach 604 yuan / ton. considering that the average cost of per ton of coal has increased in the first three quarters, it is expected to rise to 160 yuan / ton for the whole year. We predict that the net profit attributed to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is 25.0 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 5113%, 21% and 19% over the same period last year. The EPS is 2.08 pound 2.52 pound per share, and the current stock price (9.67 yuan per share) corresponds to 4.7 pm 3.83.2 per share. In the past few years, the company has successfully realized the strategic transfer of the main producing area. To achieve a Phoenix Nirvana-like rebirth, there are two core points, one is that coal sales adopt a market-oriented pricing mechanism, and the other is the scarcity of 36% growth in new production capacity in the industry. at the same time, the company's fourth-quarter results are expected to continue to rise month-on-month, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint: coal price downside risk, according to estimates, if other things remain unchanged, if the coal price falls by 50 yuan / ton in 2021, the net profit of homing in 2021-22-23 will decrease by 3.39 × 10 ~ 2 × 448 million yuan, respectively, and the risk of production safety will be reduced by 448 million yuan.