The net profit is under pressure due to high coal prices, and the installation of new energy increases in an orderly manner.
The company's 9M21 revenue / return net profit is 1450.1 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 19.0% Universe 91.4%; corresponding to 3Q21 revenue / return net profit 4989 million yuan, year-on-year + 16.8% / turn a loss. The company's 3Q21 electricity sales led to revenue growth compared with the same period last year; high 9M21 coal prices put pressure on the company's net profit. We raised the company's 21-year unit fuel cost forecast from 241 yuan / MWh to 282 yuan / MWh, and reduced 21-23e net profit to-14.1, 558, 000.). Due to the pressure on the company's thermal power performance, we changed from PE valuation to PB valuation, referring to the company's average PB value of 1.27x in the past five years, considering the great pressure on thermal power performance this year, giving the company the 21-year 1.1x target PB (BPS:
7.48), the target price is 8.23 yuan (previous value: 4.38 yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
High coal prices put pressure on net profit, and losses may be alleviated under the influence of policies. Due to the increase in electricity consumption in the whole society, the company's 9M21/3Q21 electricity sales were 3231.15 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 17.1% and 11.0% over the same period last year, of which thermal power sales were 305.03 trillion kilowatt hours, an increase of 15.7% and 9.8% over the same period last year. The average online electricity price of 9M21 is 417.79 yuan per megawatt hour, which is + 1.3% compared with the same period last year. Due to tight coal supply and demand, the average market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 in the first three quarters of this year was 915.8 yuan / ton, up 65.9% from the same period last year. Under high coal prices, the unit fuel cost of 9M21 is 275.94 yuan / MWh, which is + 33.7% compared with the same period last year. However, recently, the state has frequently adopted policies to expand the floating range of market-oriented electricity prices relative to the benchmark / liberalize high-energy-consuming market-oriented electricity prices / limit the rise of coal prices. We think that the pressure on thermal power performance of 4Q21 Company may be alleviated, but to a limited extent.
Wind power / photovoltaic installed capacity increased orderly, new energy sales increased rapidly, the company's new energy development plan was promoted in an orderly manner, and the company's wind power / photovoltaic installed 3Q21 added 583.6pm 278MW 9M21 cumulative new 1053/468MW. Thanks to the year-on-year increase in installed capacity and the rapid increase in new energy sales compared with the same period last year, the company's wind power / photovoltaic power sales 3Q21 achieved 41.970 million kilowatt-hours, an increase of 44 percent, 31.9 percent, and a total of 14.37 million kilowatt-hours, an increase of 48.7 percent and 47.6 percent over the same period last year. The net profit of 9M21 wind power / photovoltaic is 31.71 pound 586 million yuan. 4Q21 We expect the company's new energy generation / profitability to continue to grow rapidly. In the case of the company's coal and power business under pressure due to high coal prices, the new energy business is the company's main source of net profit, the company expects to add 40GW new energy installation during the 14th five-year Plan, and we continue to be optimistic about the company's transformation to new energy.
Raise the forecast of coal price for the whole year and maintain the rating of "overweight"
The national coal price center of 9M21 has moved up greatly. We have raised the company's 21-year unit fuel cost forecast to 282 yuan / MWh (year-on-year + 34.9%), lowered 21-23e net profit to-14.1 BPS 7.875 billion yuan, and 21-23e BPS 7.48pm 7.90max 8.21. Due to the pressure on the company's thermal power performance, we switched to PB valuation, referring to the company's average PB of 1.27x in the past five years, considering the great pressure on thermal power performance this year, giving the company a 21-year 1.1x target PB with a target price of 8.23 yuan to maintain "increase".
Risk hint: coal prices rise faster than expected, electricity prices rise less than expected, and potential impairment in the future