3Q21 revenue is + 33% year-on-year, net profit is + 2% year-on-year, and the performance is in line with market expectations. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 63.68 billion yuan, year-on-year + 33.4%; net profit of 4.53 billion yuan, + 2.0% of the same period last year, in line with market expectations; deduction of non-return net profit of 3.47 billion yuan, year-on-year-14.8%; basic earnings per share of 0.80 yuan, year-on-year-3.6%; gross profit margin and homing net profit rate of 19.5% and 7.1%, respectively-5.7pct and-2.2pct The three-fee rate is 8.2%, year-on-year-0.6pct, and the expense rate is continuously optimized; the profit-to-loss ratio of minority shareholders is 25.5%, year-on-year + 5.0pct. The company's non-recurrent profit and loss totaled 1.06 billion yuan, + 187.8% compared with the same period last year, mainly including: 1) the government subsidy of about 210 million yuan,-43.0% compared with the same period last year, which is the government subsidy for industrial real estate; 2) the fair appreciation of IP is 540 million yuan, + 165.6% compared with the same period last year, which stems from the fact that the company began to lay out the commercial real estate business; 3) the fair appreciation of the original equity was 410 million yuan when it gained control. By the end of 21Q3, the advance income of the company reached 145.5 billion yuan, compared with + 8.0% at the end of 20 years, which can cover 1.7 times of 20-year revenue. It is rich in settlement resources and contributes to a steady increase in follow-up performance.
3Q21 sales year-on-year-1%, land / sales ratio of 26%, land diversification, energy level improvement. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's sales amount was 146.3 billion yuan,-0.7% compared with the same period last year, and the target completion rate reached 59%; the sales area was 1462 million square meters, + 2.9% compared with the same period last year; the sales rebate was 143.5 billion yuan, and the payback rate was as high as 98%. In the first three quarters of 2021, the amount of land obtained reached 38.7 billion yuan,-48% compared with the same period last year; the new capacity construction area was 9.9 million square meters,-50% compared with the same period last year, 85% in new first-tier and second-and third-tier cities, and 59% in diversified land acquisition; the average floor price was 3909 yuan per square meter, + 5.4% compared with the same period last year; the land / sales amount ratio was 26%, the land / sales area ratio was 68%; and the average land / sales price ratio was 39%. At the end of 21H1, the total salable area of the company was about 7311 million square meters, equivalent to 3.3 times of 20-year sales. The company is rich in land reserves, and Chongqing accounts for 24%. In 21 years, the company has a sales target of 250 billion yuan, + 12% year-on-year, plans to start 2900 million square meters,-2.2% year-on-year, and plans to complete 2600 million square meters, + 30.3% year-on-year.
The financial structure continued to be optimized, the three red line indicators remained green, and the operating cash flow increased greatly compared with the same period last year. At the end of 2021Q3, the company's interest-bearing liabilities were 87.59 billion yuan, a further decrease of 10 billion yuan compared with the end of 20 years, of which interest-bearing liabilities due within one year / within one to three years / more than three years accounted for 23.4%, 58.8%, 17.8%, respectively, the proportion of short-term debt decreased, the proportion of long-term debt increased, and the term structure was further optimized. At the end of the reporting period, the company's asset-liability ratio and asset-liability ratio excluding advance receipts were 80.1% and 68.5% respectively, which were-0.3pct and-1.1pct respectively compared with the end of 21H1; the net debt ratio reached 77.1%, which was 1.4 times higher than that of 21H1-0.5pct, cash short debt Prida, and the company's "three red lines" index remained "green". In addition, during the reporting period, the company's net operating cash flow totaled 7.43 billion yuan, an increase of 569.8% over the same period last year.
Investment analysis opinions: stable performance, improved cash flow, three red lines to maintain the green band, maintain the "buy" rating. Since 2016, Jinke shares have launched multiple incentives to actively acquire land for expansion, through various means to improve turnover and control leverage to achieve high-quality growth. In the new five-year plan, the company plans to build a diversified "real estate plus" business to enhance sustainable operating capacity, which is expected to promote the company to buy high-quality development stage. In view of the downward pressure on the company's settlement profit margin, we lowered the company's earnings per share forecast for 2021-2023 to 1.36x1.47x1.59 (the original forecast was 1.42x1.56xpx 1.72), with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, 8.4% and 8.0%. Currently, the 21PE is only 3.3 times, and the 20A dividend yield is as high as 10.1%, maintaining the target price of 10.26 yuan and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the real estate regulation and control policy tightened more than expected, and the market sales removal rate was lower than expected.