Items:
The company announced that in the first three quarters of 2021, operating income reached 8.95 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5% over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to its mother was 480 million yuan, an increase of 95.4% over the same period last year, corresponding to EPS 0.20 yuan, which is in the upper range of the performance forecast.
Peace viewpoint:
The decline in the property market led to a decline in single-quarter profits, with high growth in the first three quarters: revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 8.95 billion yuan, up 32.5% from a year earlier, while net profit was 480 million yuan, up 95.4% from a year earlier. Among them, revenue in the third quarter was affected by the decline in the real estate market, with revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, down 0.06% from the same period last year, and net profit of 100 million yuan, down 52.4% from the same period last year.
The high-quality expansion of business scale and the continuation of operational advantages: the company implemented the strategy of increasing market share in directly operated cities, completed the first round of partnership store recruitment in Nanjing and Taiyuan, and accelerated the expansion of the franchise business under the pull of the i+Saas business system. At the end of the period, the coverage of cities increased to 49 cities, with a total of 4820 stores and about 53000 employees (including joining). At the end of the 2021Q3, the management scale has increased to 2.52 million (236000 in 2020), the average number of days out of the room has been reduced to 6 days, and the rental rate is 95.1%, maintaining a leading level in the industry.
Digital strategy is becoming more and more effective, enabling business to improve efficiency: the company has achieved full online signing transactions and loan applications, fully mobile rental business processes, and self-service for customers and owners in core cities.
The implementation of the digital strategy effectively improves the timely response ability and intelligent level of various services, effectively improves the customer experience, and achieves the expected goal of improving the core business transformation efficiency. The average number of monthly active users (MAU) on the official website in the first three quarters of 2021 was nearly 17.5 million, an increase of 76.3% over the same period last year. GTV, income and unit volume of second-hand brokers all increased significantly compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019.
Investment suggestion: considering the pressure on real estate sales of second-hand housing, the company's EPS in 2021-2023 will be reduced to 0.23,0.27,0.31 yuan (originally 0.35 yuan), and the current share price corresponding to PE is 12.7,11.1 and 9.6 times, respectively. As a leading company in the real estate brokerage and housing leasing industry, the company has obvious overall business synergy, and the regional deep ploughing operation barriers are prominent, which is expected to fully benefit from the stock housing era; at the same time, the growth goal of offline stores is clear, online and offline integration, platform building open new momentum of growth, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: 1) changes in the market competition environment and industry prosperity may lead to lower-than-expected store expansion, at the same time, the building of new stores may face problems such as lack of coordination between the first and second lines of work, low efficiency of system support, etc.; 2) if the follow-up real estate market continues to be under pressure, resulting in the impact on the scale of real estate transactions, the growth of company size will be negatively affected; 3) the risk of lengthening the housing cycle and declining rental rate.