Q3 homing net profit is-49% year-on-year, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The company released its three-quarter report on October 26. 1-3Q achieved revenue of 2.44 billion yuan,-5% year-on-year; net profit of 740 million yuan, 14%; and non-return net profit of 680 million yuan,-22% of the same period last year. We maintain the profit forecast and estimate that the EPS for 21-23 years will be 0.35,0.50,0.52 yuan. We carry out segment valuation: the medical and beauty business uses the PS valuation method, and its 21-year revenue is expected to be 120 million yuan, which is 42 times higher than the company's 21-year average PS (Wind consensus expectation). Considering that the company's medical and beauty business volume is still small, it is given 25 times 2021PS, with a reasonable value of 3 billion yuan; the real estate business NAV is 28.3 billion yuan, taking into account the downside risk of the real estate market, we give a 48% discount, a reasonable value of 14.7 billion yuan. To sum up, the reasonable value of the company is 17.7 billion yuan, and the target price is 5.84 yuan (the previous value is 6.16 yuan).
Real estate carry-over rhythm and structure affect performance release, continue to provide cash flow support for the transformation of the real estate business is still the main component of the company's performance, affected by the carry-over rhythm and structure, quarterly performance fluctuates greatly. In the first three quarters, the year-on-year decline in the company's return net profit was greater than that of revenue, mainly because: 1, due to the real estate carry-over structure, the gross profit margin was from-5.0pct to 50.2%; 2, the distribution of medical and beauty business led to sales + management expenses rate + 3.4pct to 13.0%. The company's acquisition of medical and beauty hospitals owned by the industrial fund resulted in an investment income of + 442% to 60 million yuan compared with the same period last year, but also led to a year-on-year decline in non-return net profit greater than that of home return net profit. As of Q3, the company's contract debt is 58% to 960 million yuan higher than that of Q2, and we expect the real estate stock project to proceed smoothly. According to the semi-annual report, the company will continue to promote the development and construction of high-profit projects such as Tianhua Silicon Valley Phase III and the North Bund Water City in the future to provide cash flow support for the transformation.
The integration of medical and beauty assets is advancing smoothly.
On July 21, the company announced that it plans to use 337 million yuan in cash to acquire 100% equity stakes in three medical hospitals held by the related party Medical and American Industry Investment Fund and Global Equity Investment. The three hospitals in Wuxi / Tangshan / Shijiazhuang have a total income of 130 million yuan / net profit of 2094 million yuan / net interest rate of 16% 21H1 income of 6970 yuan / net profit of 8.08 million yuan / net interest rate of 12%. The transaction plan has been adopted by the shareholders' meeting on August 12, and we expect to be able to merge it by the end of the year, marking the gradual landing of the company's medical strategy. With the improvement of operating capacity, we expect that the company's Shanghai Tianda and Beijing Suya (not listed) are expected to turn losses into profits by the end of the year. In addition, we look forward to the arrival of new medical and beauty mergers and acquisitions in the future.
Risk tips: fluctuations in the regional real estate market, the actual landing rhythm of medical and beauty business is not as expected, M & An is not expected, the risk of loss of key personnel.
