The company released its three-quarter report on October 26th. 2021Q1-3 achieved revenue of 2.775 billion yuan, + 0.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 403 million yuan,-44.2% year-on-year. Among them, in the single quarter of 2021Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.113 billion yuan, year-on-year-2.8%, net profit of 157 million yuan, year-on-year-46.1%, and non-net profit of 157 million yuan, year-on-year-40.0%.
Business analysis
The revenue of 2021Q3 has declined, while the revenue of time interconnection has increased slightly: 2021Q3, the revenue of Antarctic e-commerce headquarters / time interconnection is 1.88 / 926 million yuan, which is-40.9% / + 11.9% compared with the same period last year.
Antarctic e-commerce headquarters mainly includes brand authorization and related business, subsidiary time interconnection is mainly Internet advertising + celebrity business. The reason for the decline in revenue from the same period last year is the decline in the GMV of the company's BABA channel and the greater pressure on customer inventory, resulting in a decline in integrated service revenue and monetization.
2021Q3 company GMV is 8.99 billion yuan, year-on-year + 6.04%, Pinduoduo channel keeps high growth, looking forward to fast channel growth prospects: 2021Q3, BABA channel GMV is 3.754 billion yuan, year-on-year-30.0%; Pinduoduo GMV is 3.28 billion yuan, year-on-year + 68.6%; JD.com GMV is 1.16 billion yuan, year-on-year-0.34%; Vipshop Holdings Limited GMV is 180 million yuan, year-on-year-60.9% 2021Q2's newly opened Douyin & Kuaishou Technology channel contributed 576 million yuan to GMV, 39% higher than the previous quarter.
The monetization rate of Pinduoduo channel may be improved, paying attention to the de-monetization of customers' trademark inventory: the reasons for the decline in the monetization rate of the company in the first half of the year include ① taking the initiative to adjust its revenue target to reduce the trademark inventory pressure of BABA platform customers; Pinduoduo platform with lower monetization rate of ② grows rapidly, and so on. Q4 is the traditional peak season for e-commerce, and the elimination of customers' trademark inventory will affect the monetization rate and income of the company, which is worth paying attention to. The company disclosed that the revenue of the 2021H1/Q1-3 Pinduoduo channel exceeded 70 million yuan / 150 million yuan respectively. According to this data, it is estimated that the monetization rate of the company's 2021Q3 Pinduoduo channel is about 1.7%, which is significantly higher than that of 2021H1 about 1.2%.
The company's cross-border e-commerce platform was launched in October, looking forward to new business developments: its cross-border e-commerce platform FOMMOS was launched in October, according to the company's response on the interactive platform of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
At present, the company's cross-border e-commerce business is still in the investment stage. We believe that based on the leading advantages of the domestic consumer goods supply chain, cross-border e-commerce has broad development prospects, and we look forward to the follow-up progress of the company's cross-border e-commerce business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Pinduoduo, social e-commerce and other channels are expected to continue to promote the company's GMV growth. Taking into account the slowdown in the growth of traditional channels, the destocking of signage, and the investment in new businesses such as cross-border e-commerce, the company's short-term profitability may be affected to a certain extent, we reduce the company's 2021-23 net profit forecast from 8.9 / 10.3 / 1.15 billion yuan to 7.1 / 8.0 / 950 million yuan, corresponding to the year-on-year-40% / + 13% / + 19% closing price on October 28, 2021-23 PE is 25 / 2218x. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: platform policy change, new business and new channels are not as expected, product quality problems, etc.