On October 27, the company released its three-quarter report that in the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 963 million yuan, + 8.05% year-on-year, 43 million yuan of net profit,-44.51% of the same period last year, and 40 million yuan of non-return net profit, which was-44.61% of the same period last year.
II. Analysis and judgment
The required consumer attribute ensures that the company's revenue is stable, and the rise in raw material prices reduces profit margins in the short term. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 963 million yuan, + 8.05% compared with the same period last year, of which Q3 realized operating income of 345 million yuan, + 6.92% of the same period last year. The company's income remains stable, mainly because the company's main products are fresh bean products, which are daily consumption necessities, and the overall demand is relatively stable. In addition, the company raised the prices of some products in the first half of the year, which also contributed to some price increases. Profit side: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a net profit of 43 million yuan,-44.51% compared with the same period last year. The decline was mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials upstream. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of soybeans rose nearly 20% year-on-year as of October 20. Although the price increase covers part of the cost, the persistently high cost is still a drag on the company's profit performance.
In the future, the company will work with the government to focus on purchasing soybeans and consider import substitution to reduce the risk of rising costs.
The fresh demand is stable, and the expansion in different places opens the long-term increment.
Looking forward to the whole year, the company's income is still expected to maintain a steady growth trend, mainly because (1) the company's products belong to daily household consumption, and the demand is stable. (2) the company is actively seeking external market expansion, reaching deep cooperation with Huazhong fresh platform, and setting up a catering department to connect B-end customers such as Haidilao International Holding. (3) the capacity release replenishment increases the basis.
In the future, the company will achieve pan-regional expansion from two levels: (1) mergers and acquisitions: the Yangzhou bean products factory acquired in 2008 has achieved nearly 100 million yuan in revenue through the reform of the company management system and the improvement of production line efficiency. in the future, it is expected to replicate the "Yangzhou experience" and achieve more regional expansion. (2) Building a factory in different places: the company built the Anji factory in 2010 and has become the company's most important production base. It is expected that the "Anji model" will be promoted in weak areas in the future to achieve remote expansion.
The rise in raw material prices has dragged down the performance of gross margin, and the intensity of expenses has remained stable: the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 27.06%, year-on-year-10.49pct. The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to rising costs of major raw materials such as soybeans. Period expense rate: during the first three quarters, the expense rate was 20.91%, year-on-year-4.73pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 14.74%, 4.76%, 0.78%, 0.63%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-3.94/-0.12/+0.02/-0.70pct. The decline in the rate of sales expenses is mainly due to the reclassification of transportation expenses to operating costs, and the overall expenditure remains stable. Net interest rate: the company's net interest rate in the first three quarters was 4.45%, year-on-year-4.21pct.
III. Investment suggestions
We downgrade our previous profit forecast. It is estimated that in 2021-2023, the company will achieve revenue of 13.331557Universe RMB1.787 million, which is + 8.8% of the same period last year. The net profit of "16.8% Placement" is 14.8%, and the net profit of homing to the parent is RMB 0.78 million, which is-28.0%, "35.0%," 35.0% and 23.6%, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 41X/30X/25X. The company is currently valued above the industry average, but maintains a "recommended" rating, taking into account the company's changing procurement model, cost savings, and the potential for performance growth brought about by remote expansion.
Fourth, risk tips:
Rapidly rising costs, lower-than-expected capacity release, food safety risks, and so on.
