The company's 2021Q1-Q3 realized operating income of 37.375 billion yuan, year-on-year + 13.74%; net profit of 1.494 billion yuan, + 467.41%; and deduction of non-return net profit of 931 million yuan, + 226.44% of the same period last year. The company's 2021Q3 realized operating income of 14.237 billion yuan, year-on-year + 32.91%, month-on-month + 22.28%; realized return-to-mother net profit of 781 million yuan, year-on-year + 245.4%, month-on-month + 163.21%; and realized deduction of non-return net profit of 261 million yuan, year-on-year + 2.07%, month-on-month + 5.23%.
Event comment
Volume-price resonance, the company's revenue in the first three quarters increased greatly compared with the same period last year. 2021Q1-Q3 metal prices rose sharply compared with the same period last year, with the commissioning and reaching production of the company's DRC copper and cobalt projects and Indonesian nickel projects, copper and cobalt smelting and cobalt tetroxide production and sales increased significantly compared with the same period last year, the company's volume and price rise led to a year-on-year increase in revenue. In the third quarter, the average prices of SHFE copper, cobalt intermediates and ferronickel were-1.9%, + 10.0%, and + 22.1%, respectively, driving revenue growth in the third quarter.
In the future, with the gradual commissioning of the company's Congo Copper and Cobalt CCM and Cronway projects, the gradual landing of Guizhou nickel sulfate and ferric phosphate projects, and the strategic reduction of trade business, the company's revenue structure will be further improved.
The business structure improved and the company's profitability increased significantly in the first three quarters. 2021Q1-Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 7.97%, year-on-year + 4.55pct, and deducted non-net profit rate of 2.49%, year-on-year + 1.62pct, mainly due to the year-on-year rise in metal prices and the improvement of business structure. In the third quarter, 2021Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 6.24%, a month-on-month ratio of-2.20pct, and a net profit rate of 7.52%, with a month-on-month ratio of + 1.97pct. On the one hand, the company's major metal products and global coal energy prices rose significantly in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, which may lead to a slight decrease in the gross profit margin of the company at the same gross profit level per ton; on the other hand, the company's non-recurrent profit and loss in the third quarter is 520 million yuan, with a net income of 609 million of fair value changes, and the company holds a 2.25% stake in Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng, which brought big buoyancy to the company when it was listed in August this year.
The rookie prototype of lithium electric materials with raw material advantages is gradually emerging: (1) the upstream nickel-cobalt raw material production capacity has entered a period of rapid expansion: at present, the company has 40,000 tons of copper, 8000 metal tons of cobalt materials, 40,000 tons of nickel materials production capacity. Nickel, cobalt and copper projects are all in the best full production state in history. In the next three years, the company will form an annual production capacity of 120000 tons of copper, 45000 tons of nickel, 16000 tons of cobalt and 300000 tons of zinc. (2) the strategy focuses on new energy, and the downward extension materials set out again: on the one hand, the trade business will be strategically reduced in the next three years, and the proportion of new energy business will be further increased; on the other hand, the company's layout of nickel sulfate capacity and addition of battery-grade ferric phosphate is further extended to lithium materials, and the strategic thinking of expanding materials under up-control resources is becoming more and more clear. (3) the performance of the rookie of lithium electric materials with the advantage of raw materials is expected to rise again: with the gradual landing of various plans of the company, it is expected to gradually form the advantageous layout of controlling resources and expanding materials, and is optimistic about the long-term growth of the company's performance. the current time point has a strong ratio of performance to price. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 14.59,21.57 and 2.768 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE20X, 14x and 11x.
Risk hint
1. The company's production capacity is not as good as expected.
two。 Consumption of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, cobalt supply and release
Prices fell sharply more than expected.