Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (600808): 3Q is affected by the price of raw materials. 4Q is expected to improve.

中金公司 · Oct 28, 2021 00:00

　　3Q21 业绩符合我们预期

　　公司公布3Q21 业绩：3Q21 实现收入289.52 亿元，同比+39.31%，环比-12.21%；归母净利润18.83 亿元，对应每股盈利0.24 元，同比+152.79%，环比-39.89%，基本符合预期。

　　1）产量压降背景下，公司三季度产销量环比下滑。3Q21 公司钢材产销量均为496 万吨，环比分别为-11.1%/-9.8%，其中板带材、棒线材及火车轮轴产量分别为254/237/5 万吨，环比分别为-5.9%/-16.5%/25%。在产量压降的背景下，公司积极调整产品结构，盈利较好的板材及轮轴产品占比上升。2）焦炭价格上升导致公司3Q 吨钢毛略有下滑。公司3Q21 吨钢售价、吨钢毛利、吨钢费用及吨钢净利分别为5837/892/436/380 元/吨，环比分别下降159/361/17/190 元/吨。焦炭价格大幅上涨是公司毛利下滑的主要原因之一，我们跟踪的焦炭价格3Q21 均价为3209 元/吨，环比+29.6%。

　　3）加强新产品研发，研发费用率保持高位。公司3Q21 研发费用率为4.4%，主要系公司加大科研投入以加强新产品开发力度。4）资产负债表继续优化。截至3Q21 公司资产负债率为58.28%，环比下降2.5ppt，延续下行趋势。

　　发展趋势

　　四季度业绩有望改善，看好公司22 年盈利中枢保持高位。截至目前，我们模拟的四季度至今的螺纹及热轧吨钢毛利均值分别为886/840 元吨，较3Q分别上升400/100 元左右水平。钢铁产量压降稳步推进，我们认为4Q 钢铁供需仍偏紧，叠加截至11 月我们跟踪的公司主要钢材出厂价格依旧保持高位，公司4Q 盈利有望改善。展望22 年，在能耗双控逐渐成为钢铁等高耗能行业的供给长期约束的背景下，我们认为钢铁行业供给的受限将延续，而终端下游需求的趋弱或对原料价格形成更大的压力，加速铁矿和焦煤周期见顶回落，我们对板块盈利仍有信心，预期行业典型产品吨钢毛利润仍维持在500-700 元/吨附近的较好水平。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　维持2021 年盈利预测不变,由于我们下调22 年公司产品价格假设，我们下调2022 年净利润21.3%至75.51 亿元。当前A 股股价对应2021/22 年3.5X/4.4XP/E。当前H 股股价对应2021/22 年2.3X/2.9X 市盈率。我们维持公司A/H 股维持中性评级，但由于公司22 年盈利或有所下滑，我们分别下调A/H 目标价24.5%/20.0%至5.20 元、4.0 港币（对应A 股2021/22 年P/E4.2x/5.3x，H 股2021/22 年P/E2.8x/3.5x），A/H 股分别有19.3%/19.8%的上行空间。

　　风险

　　旺季需求不及预期；地产销售及开工大幅

3Q21's performance is in line with our expectations.

The company announced 3Q21 results: 3Q21 realized income of 28.952 billion yuan, year-on-year + 39.31%, month-on-month-12.21%; return to the mother net profit of 1.883 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.24 yuan, year-on-year + 152.79%, month-on-month-39.89%, basically in line with expectations.

1) under the background of production pressure drop, the company's production and sales volume declined month-on-month in the third quarter. The steel production and sales of 3Q21 are all 4.96 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of-11.1% and 9.8% respectively, of which the output of plate and strip, bar and wire rod and train axle is 2.37 million tons, respectively, and the month-on-month ratio is-5.9%, 16.5% and 25%, respectively. Under the background of output pressure drop, the company actively adjusts the product structure, and the proportion of profitable plate and axle products increases. 2) the rise in coke price led to a slight decline in the company's 3Q tons of steel wool. The price of 3Q21 per ton steel, gross profit per ton steel, cost per ton steel and net profit per ton steel are respectively RMB 5837x892 and net profit per ton, respectively, with a month-on-month decrease of RMB 159x361 per ton, 17max 190 per ton. The sharp rise in coke prices is one of the main reasons for the decline in gross profit of the company. The average 3Q21 price of coke we tracked is 3209 yuan / ton, with a month-on-month ratio of + 29.6%.

3) strengthen the research and development of new products, and keep the rate of R & D expenditure at a high level. The company's 3Q21 R & D expenditure rate is 4.4%, which is mainly due to the company's increased investment in scientific research to strengthen the development of new products. 4) the balance sheet continues to be optimized. As of 3Q21, the asset-liability ratio was 58.28%, a month-on-month decline of 2.5ppt, continuing the downward trend.

Development trend

Fourth-quarter results are expected to improve, optimistic that the company's 22-year profit center will remain high. Up to now, the average gross margin of screw thread and hot rolled steel per ton of steel simulated by us in the fourth quarter to date is 886 hectare 840 yuan respectively, which is about 400 hectare 100 yuan higher than that of 3Q. Steel production pressure drop steadily, we believe that 4Q steel supply and demand is still tight, adding up to November we track the company's main steel factory prices remain high, the company's 4Q profit is expected to improve. Looking forward to 22 years, under the background that the double control of energy consumption has gradually become a long-term constraint on the supply of high energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel, we believe that the supply restriction of the iron and steel industry will continue, while the weakening demand in the downstream of the terminal may form greater pressure on raw material prices. accelerate the peak decline of the iron ore and coking coal cycle, we still have confidence in plate profits, and it is expected that the gross profit per ton of steel, a typical product of the industry, will remain at a good level of around 500-700 yuan / ton.

Profit forecast and valuation

Leaving the 2021 profit forecast unchanged, we lowered our net profit by 21.3% to 7.551 billion yuan in 2022 as we lowered our 22-year product price assumption. The current A share price corresponds to 2021 Compact 22 3.5X/4.4XP/E. The current H share price corresponds to the 22-year price-to-earnings ratio of 2021 2.3X/2.9X. We maintain the neutral rating of the company's Aprime H shares, but due to the company's 22-year profit or decline, we downgrade the target price of Aprime H by 24.5%, 20.0% to 5.20, and HK $4.0 respectively (corresponding to A-share 2021 prime 22 P/E2.8x/3.5x E4.2xgray 5.3x H-share 2021122 P/E2.8x/3.5x), and Aprime H shares have 19.3% of the upside space of 19.8% of the company's 2021mm H shares, respectively, as a result of a 22-year profit or a decline in the company's 22-year profit.

Risk

Demand in peak season is lower than expected; real estate sales and construction are substantial.

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马钢股份(600808)：3Q受原料价格影响业绩承压 4Q有望改善

Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (600808): 3Q is affected by the price of raw materials. 4Q is expected to improve.

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