The readings of this report are as follows:
The company's results in the third quarter of 2021 were slightly lower than expected, and the mismatch between the pace of price increases and the rise in coal costs in the third quarter led to a significant decline in quarterly profits.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company's revenue in the first three quarters was 5.822 billion yuan, down 3.24%, and the net profit returned to the mother was 954 million yuan, down 34.13%. In the third quarter alone, the revenue was 2.52 billion yuan, down 3.99%, and the net profit returned to the mother was 352 million yuan, down 50.72%, which was lower than expected. Affected by the sharp rise in coal prices, the net profit of the company in 2021-23 was 11.2 billion yuan, corresponding to eps1.44/1.75/1.96 yuan, the target price was lowered to 13.2 yuan.
The high warehouse position enters the peak season, the sales volume is equal to the same period, the price still has the gap. It is estimated that the company achieved cement and clinker sales of about 18 million tons in the first three quarters, unchanged from the same period last year. The start of some key projects in Gansu and Qinghai has picked up slightly since August, and basically recovered the sales gap in the first half of the year after the third quarter. In the first three quarters, the average price of cement tons was about 294 yuan, with a drop of about 13 yuan, mainly because the price in the northwest entered the peak season with a higher reservoir location than that in the same period. Q4 into the northern construction off-season superimposed Gansu epidemic situation, the company may face a priceless situation, the annual growth pressure still exists. As the pressure signal of economic growth appears, fiscal policy is expected to gradually force, and the demand curve of Ganqing cement is expected to move up.
The coal price is high and the cost pressure is increasing. It is estimated that the company's cost per ton in the third quarter is about 215 yuan, an increase of 42 yuan over the same period last year. The main reason is that the high level of coal price Q3 continues to strengthen, while the price increase is mainly reflected in Q4, resulting in a sharp increase in profit pressure in a single quarter. At present, the company's standard coal consumption per ton of cement is 150kg/ tons, and it is estimated that the amount of 21Q3 coal accounted for is more than 700 yuan per ton, which has an obvious impact on the cost per ton.
The "net cash" continued and the asset-liability ratio remained at a low level. At the end of the period, the company's cash on hand is about 1.56 billion yuan, which far exceeds the interest-bearing liability (390 million yuan). The total asset-liability ratio of the company at the end of the period is about 26.67%, which is further lower than that of Q2 and maintained at an excellent level as a whole.
Risk hint: the domestic epidemic situation is repeated and the fluctuation of raw materials is higher than expected.