Report guide
In 2021, Q1-Q3 's revenue grew by 67% and its performance grew by 88%. Bank IT upgrading, superimposing the wave of localization, the prosperity of the industry is expected to last 3-4 years.
Main points of investment
Benefiting from the new cycle of bank IT system replacement and the acceleration of financial innovation, the company's performance is growing at a high speed.
In 2021, Q1-Q3 achieved a revenue of 1.672 billion yuan, an increase of 67% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 75.54 million yuan, an increase of 88% over the same period last year. Of this total, Q3 realized revenue of 419 million yuan, an increase of 25% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 30.82 million yuan, an increase of 179% over the same period last year.
The rapid growth of integrated business makes gross profit margin and cash flow fluctuate and is expected to stabilize throughout the year.
The rapid growth of the system integration business in the first three quarters made the overall gross profit margin fluctuate, falling 8.19pct. To 15.35%. Q1-Q3 's single-quarter gross profit margin is 7.91%, 22.73% and 22.16% respectively. As the Q4 software development business gradually recognizes revenue, the company's gross profit margin for the whole year is expected to maintain a relatively stable level with the same period. In addition, due to the payment of a large amount of integrated procurement, operating cash flow fell 82.09% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.
Taking advantage of the situation, Jianxin Jinke has high customer efficiency, effective cost control, and increasing R & D investment is good for long-term development.
In the first three quarters of 2021, the company has effective cost control, and has a close relationship with Jianxin Jinke, which can improve the customer expansion efficiency. The company's sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 3.32,1.84 pct respectively. In R & D, the company continued to increase R & D investment in the first half of the year, with R & D expenditure of 62.151 million yuan, an increase of 42.07% over the same
The three waves of industrial cycle, localization and system demand change are superimposed, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to last 3-4 years.
Benefiting from the upgrading cycle of the core system of the bank, the adjustment of system requirements and the upgrading of technical architecture brought about by business mobility and Internet, the bank gradually migrates the system to distributed, superimposing the domestic demand under the influence of the international situation. Banks are expected to enter the transformation one after another, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to last for 3-4 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is 2.01,2.61 and 340 million yuan respectively, the year-on-year growth rate of 30% and 30% from 2022 to 2023 is 0.45,0.58,0.76 yuan, and the current stock price PE for 21-23 years is 21, 16 and 12 times. Give the company the 2021 target PE35 times, corresponding to the total market value of 7.6 billion, the target price of 17.01 yuan, an increase of 84%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips 1, bank IT development is not as expected risk; 2, brain drain risk.