Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (002202): Q3 sales have increased significantly compared with the previous month. 3-4S platform units have become the mainstream.

東吳證券 · Oct 27, 2021 00:00

　　投资要点

　　2021Q3 公司归母净利润11.64 亿元，同比增长47%，环比增长33%，符合市场预期。公司发布2021 年三季报，公司2021Q1-3 实现营业收入335.5 亿元，同比下降9.40%；实现归属母公司净利润30.13 亿元，同比增长45.61%。其中2021Q3，实现营业收入156.47 亿元，同比下降11.13%，环比增长41.20%；实现归属母公司净利润11.64 亿元，同比增长46.58%，环比增长32.84%。公司在原材料成本上涨及信用减值较大的压力下，公司三季度出货量快速增长带动归母净利润环比同比快速增长。

　　风机销售环比快速提升+大机型占比持续提升，毛利率实现同比上升。2021 年Q1-Q3 公司实现对外销售机组容量6.35GW，同比下降23.67%；其中Q3 公司对外销售机组容量3.38GW，同比下降19.78%，环比上升80.40%，销售环比大幅提升。Q1-3 综合毛利率为26.28%，同比上升9.02pct，Q3 毛利率24.34%，同比上升7.23pct，环比下降3.38pct。毛利率同比上升，主要原因：1）出货结构改善，Q1-3 公司大机型3S/4S、6S/8S 机型占比39.56%、23.42%，较去年同比提升30.25pct、19.28pct，大机型毛利率更高，带来盈利结构改善；2）成本快速下降，陆风退补驱动产业链降本，部分零部件采购价格回落，叠加公司增强产品设计技术，实现成本快速下降。

　　风机业务在手订单上升，后续业绩增量可期。今年以来风机招标价格持续下跌，截至2021 年9 月公开投标市场均价已跌至2300-2400 元/KW，充分刺激需求起量，公司在手订单持续提升。截至2021 年Q3 末公司在手订单16.3GW，其中外部订单合计15.1GW，外部已签合同待执行的订单13.3GW，外部中标未签合同订单为1.75GW。且外部订单中仍以 3S/4S 平台为主，占比63%，是公司占比最大的平台产品。MSPM（中速永磁产品）在短时间内获得市场认可，在手订单规模超过670MW，占比5%左右。我们认为风机价格短期内下跌空间不大，二三线企业盈利或因此有所下滑，公司通过提升大机型产品占比、规模化生产、去冗余等方式加速降本，后续业绩增量可期。

　　销售风机收到账款增加+原材料预付款减少，公司经营活动现金流回归正常水平。

　　公司2021Q1-3 经营活动现金流量净流出22.29 亿元，同比下降196.09%，其中Q3经营活动现金流量净额18.59 亿元；销售商品取得现金322.44 亿元，同比下降15.27%。期末合同负债76.96 亿元，比期初下降1.85%。期末应收账款225.66 亿元，较期初增长17.17 亿元，应收账款周转天数下降34.89 天至174.55 天。期末存货76.76 亿元，较期初下降5.13 亿元；存货周转天数下降21.52 天至73.11 天。

　　盈利预测与投资评级：基于公司风机销售环比快速提升，龙头地位巩固。我们维持2021-2023 年净利润预测37.90/41.63/48.08 亿元，同比增长27.9%/9.8%/15.5%，对应EPS 为0.90/0.99/1.14 元/股，我们给予2022 年22 倍PE，对应目标价21.78 元，维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示：竞争加剧，政策不及预期等

Main points of investment

2021Q3's parent net profit was 1.164 billion yuan, an increase of 47% over the same period last year and 33% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. According to the company's three-quarter report for 2021, the company's 2021Q1-3 achieved operating income of 33.55 billion yuan, down 9.40% from the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to the parent company was 3.013 billion yuan, an increase of 45.61% over the same period last year. Of this total, 2021Q3 achieved operating income of 15.647 billion yuan, down 11.13% from the same period last year, up 41.20% from the previous year; and realized net profit belonging to the parent company of 1.164 billion yuan, up 46.58% from the same period last year and 32.84% from the previous year. Under the pressure of rising raw material costs and credit impairment, the rapid growth of shipments in the third quarter led to a rapid increase in net profit compared with the same period last year.

Fan sales increased rapidly compared with the previous month + the proportion of large models continued to increase, and the gross profit margin increased year-on-year. In 2021, Q1-Q3 achieved external sales of unit capacity 6.35GW, down 23.67% from the same period last year; among them, Q3 sold unit capacity 3.38GW, down 19.78% from the same period last year, up 80.40% from the previous month, and sales increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The comprehensive gross profit margin of Q1-3 was 26.28%, up 9.02% from the same period last year, up 24.34% from the same period last year, 7.23pct was up from the same period last year, and 3.38pct was down from the previous year. The main reasons for the increase in gross profit margin compared with the same period last year are as follows: 1) the shipping structure has improved. Q1-3 large models 3S/4S and 6S/8S accounted for 39.56% and 23.42%, which increased 30.25pct and 19.28pct compared with the same period last year. The gross profit margin of large models is higher, resulting in an improvement in profit structure. 2) the cost has dropped rapidly, the cost of the industrial chain has been reduced, the purchase prices of some parts and components have been reduced, and the superimposed company has enhanced product design technology to achieve a rapid reduction in cost.

Fan business orders-on-hand increase, follow-up performance increment can be expected. Since the beginning of this year, the bidding price of wind turbine has continued to decline, and by September 2021, the average price in the public bidding market has fallen to 2300-2400 yuan / KW, fully stimulating demand, and the company's on-hand orders continue to rise. By the end of Q3 in 2021, the company has orders in hand 16.3GW, in which external orders total 15.1GW, external signed contracts to be executed orders 13.3GW, external bid-winning unsigned contract orders are 1.75GW. And external orders are still dominated by 3S/4S platform, accounting for 63%, which is the largest platform product of the company. MSPM (medium speed permanent magnet products) has been recognized in the market in a short time, and the scale of on-hand orders exceeds that of 670MW, accounting for about 5%. We believe that there is little room for fan prices to fall in the short term, and the profits of second-and third-tier enterprises may decline as a result. The company accelerates cost reduction by increasing the proportion of large-scale products, large-scale production, de-redundancy and other ways, and the follow-up performance increment can be expected.

Sales fan received an increase in accounts + a decrease in the advance of raw materials, and the cash flow of the company's operating activities returned to the normal level.

The net cash flow of 2021Q1-3 operating activities of the company was 2.229 billion yuan, down 196.09% from the same period last year, of which the net cash flow of Q3 operating activities was 1.859 billion yuan, and the cash obtained from selling goods was 32.244 billion yuan, down 15.27% from the same period last year. The contract liability at the end of the period was 7.696 billion yuan, 1.85% lower than that at the beginning of the period. The accounts receivable at the end of the period was 22.566 billion yuan, an increase of 1.717 billion yuan over the beginning of the period, and the turnover days of accounts receivable decreased from 34.89 days to 174.55 days. The ending inventory was 7.676 billion yuan, which was 513 million yuan lower than that at the beginning of the period, and the inventory turnover days decreased from 21.52 days to 73.11 days.

Profit forecast and investment rating: based on the rapid improvement of the company's fan sales, the leading position is consolidated. We maintain the 2021-2023 net profit forecast of RMB 41.630.808 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, 9.8%, 15.5%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.90, 0.99, and 1.14 yuan per share. We give it 22 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 21.78, and maintain the "Buy" rating.

Risk hints: increased competition, less-than-expected policies, etc.

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金风科技(002202)：Q3销量环比大幅提升 3-4S平台机组已成主流

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (002202): Q3 sales have increased significantly compared with the previous month. 3-4S platform units have become the mainstream.

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