Event
Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology releases third quarter report 2021
Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology announced that operating income in the first three quarters of 2021 totaled 33.55 billion yuan, down 9.4 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 3.013 billion yuan, an increase of 45.6 percent over the same period last year.
Among them, the company's operating income in the third quarter of 2021 was 15.647 billion yuan, down 11.1 percent from the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in a single quarter was 1.164 billion yuan, an increase of 46.6 percent over the same period last year.
Brief comment
Fan sales have declined, and the proportion of large-capacity models has increased significantly.
From January to September in 2021, the company achieved an external sales capacity of 6347 MW, a decrease of 23.7% compared with January to September in 2020. Structurally, the model with the largest sales share this year is the 3S/4S platform, with sales capacity 2511MW, up 224.4% year-on-year and 30.3% to 39.57%, while the larger model 6S/8S platform sales capacity 1487MW increased by 332.0% year-on-year and 19.3% to 23.4%. In the same period last year, the sales capacity of the main model 2S platform fell by 67.1%, or 48 percentage points to 36.3%.
The price of fan continues to decline, and the market bidding volume increases greatly compared with the same period last year.
Since the second half of last year, the average price of wind turbine monthly bidding market has shown a downward trend. In the case of 3s models, for example, the average bid price was 3250 yuan per kilowatt in September 2020 and dropped 25.8 percent to 2410 yuan per kilowatt in September 2021. 4s models also dropped 26.5 percent from 3163 yuan per kilowatt last year to 2326 yuan per kilowatt. With the decline of wind turbine prices, the investment enthusiasm of downstream operators is high. In the first three quarters of 2021, the domestic market added a new amount of public bidding 41.9GW, an increase of 115.1% over the same period last year, including a new bidding capacity 40.9GW on land and a new bidding capacity 1GW at sea, indicating that operators are not very satisfied with the investment return of offshore wind power after 22 years of comprehensive parity.
External orders continue to grow, medium-speed permanent magnet new products get market recognition as of September 30, 2021, the company's total orders-on-hand 16.4GW, of which external orders total 15.1GW, compared with the end of last year net new orders-on-hand 692MW. Among the hand orders, more than 9.5GW is 3gamma 4S platform, accounting for 63% of the platform order 4.7GW of TX 2S, and 1% of the order of 143MW of the platform 143MW of TX 6max 8S, accounting for 31% of the order. It is worth mentioning that the new medium-speed permanent magnet products released by the company at the Beijing International Wind Energy Exhibition were recognized by the market in a short time, and the newly signed orders exceeded 670MW, accounting for about 5%.
Efficient operation of power generation business
By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company's domestic and foreign wind farm equity installed capacity totaled 5554MW, of which the new rights and interests grid-connected capacity 540MW in 2021, the transfer of assets in the same period 473MW, the net increase of installed capacity 67MW, in addition, the company's domestic and foreign wind farm construction equity capacity 2406MW.
In the first three quarters of 2021, the average standard operating hours of the company's own wind farms was 1896 hours, higher than the national average of 256hours and an increase of 14.4% over the same period last year.
The gross profit margin increases sharply with the change of income structure.
In the context of offshore wind power rush installation this year, the company's high-capacity 6S/8S revenue rose 444.7% in the first half of the year, accounting for the highest proportion of all products. Due to the high unit price and high gross profit margin of large units, including Haifeng units, the gross profit margin of the company's fan and parts sales business increased by 8.2 percentage points to 20.3% in the first half of the year, with the gross profit margin of the 6S/8S model as high as 25.94%.
In addition, the increase in the proportion of wind power business with high gross margin is also the main reason for the increase in gross profit margin of the company. Under the background of superimposed wind power installation growth this year, the company's wind farm investment and development business increased by 32.3% in the first half of the year. Gross profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 72.4%. Together, these two reasons boosted the company's profitability, resulting in a 45.6% increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue in the first three quarters.
Maintain a "buy" rating
Due to the impact of the rush to install last year, we judge that the company's fan sales capacity will decline by nearly 23.8% this year, but the company's profit can still grow greatly under the adjustment of revenue structure. With the launch of the company's medium-speed permanent magnet platform, more large models of the company have been sought after by customers, and we judge that the company's fan sales will resume growth in 22 years. To sum up, we expect that in 2021-2023, the company will achieve operating income of 52.152 billion yuan and 560.40 pound respectively, with a net profit of 39.74 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.384 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS will be 1.22 yuan and 1.22 times, respectively, and the PE for 2021-2023 will be 17.716.2 pound, 13.6 times, respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1, a sharp decline in wind power demand; 2, a sharp decline in mainframe prices; 3, a substantial increase in product costs.