2021-10-27 Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. Yang Song conducted a research on Yingke Healthcare and released a research report entitled "leapfrog capacity expansion continues to advance". This report gives a buy rating to Yingke Healthcare, with a current share price of 53.93 yuan.
British Medical (300677)
Event
2021Q1~Q3 realized operating income of 13.647 billion yuan, an increase of 52.56% over the same period last year, and net profit of 6.943 billion yuan, an increase of 58.77% over the same period last year, deducting 6.911 billion yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 58.15% over the same period last year. The income of 2021Q3 in a single quarter was 2.972 billion yuan, down 33.88% from the same period last year, and the net profit from home was 1.064 billion yuan, down 56.61% from the same period last year. The net profit from non-return to home was 1.061 billion yuan, down 56.64% from the same period last year.
Continuous promotion of leapfrog capacity expansion
The company's 2021Q3 single-quarter performance decreased, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand for disposable gloves showed explosive growth in 2020, the demand for disposable gloves was in short supply, the price of gloves increased significantly, the epidemic alleviated and production capacity was released in 2021, and the price of disposable gloves was reduced. The company seized the development opportunity brought by the epidemic and continued to promote capacity construction and optimization and upgrading. By the beginning of October 2021, the company's total annual production capacity of disposable gloves was 75 billion (45 billion nitrile gloves). Compared with the total annual production capacity of 19 billion (5 billion nitrile gloves) in 2019 before the epidemic, the total annual production capacity increased by 56 billion (40 billion nitrile gloves). According to the company announcement, it is expected that the annual production capacity of 2022H1 disposable gloves will reach 100 billion, and it is expected to become the world's largest supplier of disposable gloves in the future.
Strengthen the network construction of global marketing market, and constantly improve product quality and cost control.
1) Global marketing network: through offline and online "dual channels, own brands and commissioned R & D and manufacturing, build a global sales and marketing network to improve customer coverage." 2) by strengthening the research and development capability, the company independently develops and designs the production line, integrates the equipment and customizes the production formula, strengthens the process control and automatic production, and improves the operation efficiency and product quality. 3) deeply integrate the industrial supply chain and develop to the upstream raw materials by means of equity participation and holding, so as to enhance the cost advantage. By the beginning of September 2021, Kaiser in Anhui has entered the stage of installing key equipment in the later stage, and Shandong Haode has been officially put into production in the second quarter of 2021.
Profit forecast and valuation rating
In view of the pressure on the price of disposable gloves, we downgrade the operating income forecast for 2021 in 2023 to 172.52, 128.89, and 162.11 (the previous forecast is 215.32 / 22.603 billion yuan, 235.85), and the projected return profit is 75.04, 22.72 / 3.057 billion (100.32, 60.82 / 6.675 billion), corresponding to 13.65, 4.13 and 5.56 yuan per share, respectively, in EPS, which is respectively 13.65, 4.13, and 5.56 yuan per share, respectively, in view of the pressure on the price of disposable gloves. We believe that Yingke Medical has initially formed a strong lead in the field of gloves at this stage, and in the medium to long term, the core development logic of the company is "China's advantage, global market" and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of global overcapacity of disposable gloves; the risk of price fluctuation of disposable gloves; the construction progress of the company's capacity project is not as expected.
The stock has been rated by four agencies and four buy ratings in the last 90 days; the average institutional target price in the past 90 days is 88.5; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Inco Medical (300677) has a good company rating of 5 stars, a good price rating of 3 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 4 stars.
