Event description
The company released its third quarterly report for 2021: in the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 49.89 billion yuan, an increase of 16.82% over the same period last year, and a net profit of-3.499 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.05% over the same period last year.
Event comment
In the third quarter of 2021, the company put into production 583.6 megawatts of wind turbines and 278 megawatts of photovoltaic turbines, driving the sales of wind power and photovoltaic electricity in the third quarter to increase by 43.97% and 31.92% respectively compared with the same period last year. In addition, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 12.9% from January to September compared with the same period last year, especially during the peak summer period, the sustained strong electricity demand led to the rapid growth of thermal power load, so the company's thermal power unit utilization hours increased more. In the third quarter alone, the company achieved coal machine power generation of 102.685 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 9.34% over the same period last year. Overall, better demand and new production capacity drove the company to complete electricity sales of 115.188 billion kilowatt hours in the third quarter, an increase of 10.98% over the same period last year, continuing the growth trend in the first half of the year. Or under the influence of the overall tight power supply and demand, the increase in market-oriented ratio drives the company's average electricity price upwards. in the first three quarters of 2021, the average online settlement price of power plants in the company was 417.79 yuan / MW hours, up 1.28% from the same period last year. With both volume and price rising, the company achieved operating income of 49.89 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 16.82% over the same period last year.
Since the third quarter of this year, some small and medium-sized coal mines in the main producing areas have stopped production due to the lack of coal control tickets, while the coal mines approved in the early stage may be difficult to fully release their full production capacity in a short period of time. Under the continuous game of supply and demand, thermal coal prices have repeatedly reached new highs. According to the calculation, the average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal market in the third quarter (Q5500, produced in Shanxi) was 1142.46 yuan / ton, an increase of 98.55% over the same period last year. Considering that thermal power still accounts for an absolute proportion of the company's installed capacity, superimposed thermal power generation continues to rise, the sharp increase in coal cost pressure suppresses the company's thermal power profitability to a certain extent, and the company's operating cost increased by 49.09% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. The gross profit margin fell 22.25 percentage points year-on-year to-2.78%. Overall, the pressure on the fuel cost side is the main reason why the company's performance decreased by 203.05% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the company achieved a cumulative net profit of 783 million yuan, which was also reduced by 91.42% year-on-year under the drag of high coal prices.
According to the company's 2020 annual report, the company plans to spend more than 40 billion yuan on wind power and photovoltaic construction in 2021. It is expected that the expansion of new energy installed capacity will become an important supporting point for the company's performance growth in the future.
Investment suggestion: according to the company's latest financial data, we adjust the company's profit forecast and estimate that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be-0.20,0.45 and 0.54 yuan respectively, giving the company a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. Risk of environmental deterioration of power supply and demand
two。 The risk of non-seasonal rise in coal prices.