Event: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.77 billion yuan, year-on-year + 0.08%, of which Q3 was-2.85% year-on-year; realized net profit of 400 million yuan,-44.2%, of which Q3 was-46.1%; deducted non-return net profit of 380 million yuan, year-on-year-42.6%. From the perspective of the division in the first three quarters: (1) the revenue of this part is 510 million yuan,-37.6% compared with the same period last year, which is mainly due to the decline in GMV of BABA channel and the decline of comprehensive service revenue caused by the great pressure of customer inventory. (2) time interconnection revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, + 15.6% compared with the same period last year. Under the guidance of the company's multi-channel development strategy, with the arrival of the peak season of e-commerce and the gradual consumption of customer inventory, the company's Q4 revenue and profits are expected to improve.
The decline in net interest rate narrowed, and operating cash flow continued to flow out. (1) the company's net interest rate in the first three quarters of 2021 was 14.5%, year-on-year-11.51pp, of which Q3 was-11.31ppm; (2) realized operating net cash flow of-287 million yuan, of which Q3 realized operating cash flow of-22.12 million yuan in a single quarter, mainly due to the decrease in collection due to the decline in revenue from comprehensive brand services and the increase in payment due to the increase in the scale of factoring loans.
GMV maintained rapid growth, and the monetization rate stabilized and rebounded. The company achieved GMV280.9 of 100 million yuan in the first three quarters, + 22.92% year-on-year, of which Q3 was + 6.04% compared with the same period last year. From a platform-by-platform point of view, the GMV of BABA, Pinduoduo, JD.com and Vipshop Holdings Limited in the first three quarters was 12.9 billion yuan, 8.97 billion yuan, 4.02 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan respectively, which was-5.35%, + 95.87%, + 24.98% and + 0.84% respectively over the same period last year. Pinduoduo is still the strongest growth channel. Douyin & Kuaishou Technology platform contributed GMV of 990 million yuan, accounting for 3.53%. The monetization rate of the company's Q3 is 2.09% and the Q2 is 1.64%, which gradually stabilizes and picks up.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's 21-23 return net profit is expected to be 9.7,12.0 and 1.42 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the previous valuation logic, corresponding to a reasonable value of 7.88 yuan per share, and maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips. The development of brand GMV may not be as expected, the overall revenue growth rate of e-commerce platform may not be as expected, and the time interconnection operation may not be as expected.