Event: according to the company's quarterly report for 21 years, the revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 145.005 billion yuan, up 19% from the same period last year; the net profit from home was 783 million yuan, down 91.42% from the same period last year; the income from Q3 alone was 49.89 billion yuan, up 16.82% from the same period last year; and the net profit from home was-3.499 billion yuan, down 203.05% from the same period last year.
Comments:
The increase in electricity sales led to an increase in revenue, with an increase of 19% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company sold a total of 323.115 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, an increase of 17.11% over the Driven by the growth of electricity generation, the average online settlement electricity price in the superimposed territory increased slightly, and the revenue of 2021Q1-3 Company reached 145.005 billion yuan, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the company realized a net profit of 783 million yuan, down 91.42% from the same period last year. The single Q3 company achieved an income of 49.89 billion yuan, an increase of 16.82% over the same period last year. The net profit of the parent company was-3.499 billion yuan, down 203.05% from the same period last year. The sharp decline in performance was mainly due to the rise in fuel prices.
Electricity price rise superimposed coal supply policy, the company's profitability is expected to improve high coal prices push up costs significantly, leading to the company's profitability continues to decline. The gross profit margin of 2021Q1-3 was 7.8%, down 11.8pct from the same period last year. The gross profit margin of single Q3 company was-2.8%, down 22.2pct from the same period last year and 12.3pct from the previous year. Recently, electricity prices for market-oriented transactions have risen in many places, reaching the 20% ceiling.
At the same time, a number of coal supply policies have been introduced, and the company's profitability is expected to improve with the release of production capacity in the future. During the first three quarters of the company, the expense rate was 7.2%, a year-on-year decline of 1.2pct, and the ability of cost control and control was slightly improved. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow of operating activities of 2021Q1-3 was 22.794 billion yuan, down 16.4% from the same period last year, mainly due to the cash inflow from operating activities caused by the increase in electricity sales compared with the same period last year, which is lower than the increase in cash outflow from operating activities caused by the increase in fuel costs compared with the same period last year.
With the active transformation of new energy, the growth attribute is expected to be highlighted gradually.
In the context of carbon neutrality, the company has increased its capital investment in the field of new energy. The total capital expenditure of the company in 2021 is 56.407 billion yuan, of which the planned investment in wind power and photovoltaic is 31.382 billion yuan and 9.96 billion yuan, maintaining a high growth rate. In the first three quarters of this year, the company put into production a total of 1551.15MW controllable power generation capacity, including wind power 1053.15MW, photovoltaic 468MW, biomass 30MW. In the future, with the gradual production of new energy assets, the company's performance fluctuation is expected to be reduced, and the company's performance growth is expected to show gradually.
Profit Forecast and Investment rating
Taking into account the results of the three quarters of 2021, downgrade the performance forecast, the company's net profit in 2021-2023 is expected to be 1019x650x90.42 million (the original value is 72.17x8341x9169 million), corresponding to the PE is 106-14-12 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: new installed capacity is not as expected, coal prices rise sharply, the risk of electricity price reduction, downstream demand is lower than expected, etc.