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美股前瞻 | “缺芯”出现见顶信号?美芯片交货周期增速降至九个月最慢

US stock outlook | Is there a signal of “lack of core” peaking? The growth rate of the US chip delivery cycle fell to the slowest in nine months

富途資訊 ·  Oct 27, 2021 20:46

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Global macro

  • In order to dredge up the port, Biden once again made a big move: fine the shipping company!

In order to solve the problem of port congestion, the Biden government has made a tough move again! On Monday, local time, the US ports of Los Angeles and long Beach said in a statement that they would start fining shipping companies for shipping containers that had been stranded at sea terminals for too long.

According to the statement, containers scheduled to be transported by trucks will be allowed to stay at the port for up to nine days, while containers transported by rail will be allowed to stay at the port for up to three days, and fines will begin to accumulate for the excess period of stay. For containers that exceed the detention time, the carrier is required to pay a standard delivery fee of $100 per stranded container per day. The regulation will come into effect on November 1st.

  • Is there a peak signal for "lack of core"? Us chip delivery cycle growth slows to the slowest in nine months

Although the delivery time of chips in the United States in October is still lengthening, the increase was the smallest in about nine months, suggesting that the shortage of chips may finally be alleviated. The chip lead time is the time difference between the semiconductor order and the delivery. Under the background that the chip supply exceeds the demand in the past year, the chip delivery time has been lengthened continuously, which has attracted the attention of the market. Chip delivery times in October increased by only one day to about 21.9 weeks compared with September, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group.

  • Saudi Arabia warns: global spare crude oil production capacity is declining rapidly

Recently, Saudi Arabian National Oil Company believes that global oil production capacity is declining rapidly and companies need to invest more in production. 'This is a huge concern and spare oil capacity is shrinking, 'CEO Amin Nasser said in an interview. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have soared 70 per cent to about $85 a barrel this year. Major consumer countries, including the United States, Japan and India, have called on producers to increase production. Nasser also said that if the epidemic alleviates and more people travel by air, the shortage of oil supplies could continue to worsen in 2022.

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  • Goldman Sachs Group: global crude oil demand is about to return to pre-epidemic levels, bullish to 90 US dollars for cloth oil.

Goldman Sachs Group believes that global oil demand will soon return to its pre-epidemic level of 100m b / d, and the shift from natural gas to oil demand could increase oil demand by at least 1 million b / d. But oil prices are not high enough to damage demand, and oil prices need to reach $110 a barrel before the market can regain balance in the first quarter of 2022. Goldman Sachs Group takes a short-term, demand-driven, cyclical bullish view on oil, and forecasts the price of Brent crude at $90 per barrel by the end of the year, while price risk tends to be upward.

  • Increase your holdings in the Chinese market! HSBC: now have the opportunity to buy Chinese stocks at a "reasonable valuation"

Herald van der Linde, head of Asia-Pacific equity strategy at HSBC, believes there is an opportunity to buy Chinese stocks at a "reasonable valuation". HSBC is currently increasing its holdings of Chinese stocks, he said. The strategist said on a television program on Tuesday that the Chinese market is relatively cheap compared with the US and Indian markets. For most of this year, investors have been cautious about the Chinese stock market and reduced their holdings of many Chinese stocks. "good stocks have been sold, and these stocks currently have a very low price-to-earnings ratio." but in fact, "there is an opportunity to buy these stocks at a reasonable valuation, and people should pay attention to this market. "

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  • Details of the US "stock god tax" proposal have been released, and Musk and other tycoons are facing tens of billions of dollars in tax pressure.

Ron Wyden, chairman of the US Senate Finance Committee, issued a statement on October 27th local time, revealing plans to tax the unrealized capital gains of the super-rich. Wyden stressed that the bill mainly fills the loophole in the capital gains tax, that is, the super-rich defer their tax obligations by holding assets such as stocks, while being able to mortgage those assets to banks to meet their spending needs, meaning that these people only need to pay some interest to avoid paying taxes, leading to higher effective tax rates for the working class.

Although there is still great uncertainty about whether this exploratory bill can break through Congress, the market naturally began to "pay attention" to potential targets after the news was announced. For example, Musk, whose value has soared by $117 billion a year (with a total worth of $287 billion). Musk also retweeted a remark against the tax on social media, adding that the guys in Congress would keep an eye on your wallets when they ran out of other people's money.

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Hot news

  • The futures of the three major indexes of US stocks rose slightly before the session.

  • Microsoft Corp rose more than 2% before trading, and is expected to hit a new high at the start of trading.

$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $The results show that revenue in the first quarter was $45.3 billion, exceeding $40 billion for four consecutive quarters, with market estimates of $43.94 billion; earnings per share of $2.71, compared with $1.82 in the same period last year; and quarterly net profit of $20.5 billion, an increase of 48 percent. In addition, Microsoft Corp's smart cloud division performed strongly, generating $16.96 billion in revenue, up 31 per cent from a year earlier. In addition, JPMorgan Chase & Co raised Microsoft Corp's target price from $310 to $320.

  • Alphabet Inc-CL C weakened slightly before the session, Alphabet Inc-CL C Q3 revenue and profit exceeded expectations

The financial report shows$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $Parent company$Alphabet Inc-CL A (GOOGL.US) $Third-quarter revenue was $65.12 billion, up 41% from a year earlier, higher than market expectations of $63.39 billion, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $27.99, up more than 70% from a year earlier and higher than expected. Alphabet Inc-CL C's revenue and earnings in the third quarter were better than expected, but advertising revenue from cloud business and YouTube video platform were lower than expected, and the year-on-year growth rate also slowed. In addition, Mizuho raised its target price for Alphabet Inc-CL A from $3100 to $3350.

  • Trump concept stock rose before trading, Phunware rose nearly 11%

As of the press release$Phunware, Inc. (PHUN.US) $Up nearly 11%$Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC.US) $Up nearly 3%.

Earlier, the short seller Iceberg Research said it was shorting Digital World Acquisition Corp. Iceberg Research stressed that DWAC's valuation had soared, far exceeding the initial corporate valuation of $875 million for Trump Media Technology Group.

  • One more! Russia has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple Inc

Russia is right$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Filed an antitrust lawsuit. Apple Inc failed to allow developers to offer payment options to customers other than its App Store platform, Russia's antitrust agency said on Wednesday. Apple Inc could not be reached for comment. As of press time, Apple Inc fell 0.14% before trading.

  • Bank of America is optimistic about Facebook Inc Yuan Universe Project: share price is expected to rise by another 27%

On Tuesday, 26th US Eastern time, Bank of America Corporation said$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $The investment in large-scale interconnected virtual space is beneficial to the company's long-term development prospects. The bank is extremely bullish on the prospects of Facebook Inc's Yuan Universe project, and analyst Justin Post said on Tuesday that Facebook Inc's latest disclosure from Reality Labs shows that Facebook Inc's core business profitability and earnings per share (EPS) are strong. The bank on Tuesday raised Facebook Inc's share price target to $400 from $385a share and reiterated its "buy" rating. Facebook Inc's share price is expected to rise another 27% at Tuesday's closing price of $315.81.

  • On the day Tesla, Inc. 's market capitalization broke trillion yuan, "wooden Sister" continued to reduce its position by more than 20, 000 shares.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The fund of Cathy Wood, the largest bullish and founder of Ark Investment, further reduced its stake in the company on Monday. Wood's Ark next-generation Internet ETF sold 22598 shares of Tesla, Inc. on Monday, worth about $23.16 million at its closing price. On Friday, Mr. Wood's fund also sold 80354 shares of Tesla, Inc., worth about $73.09 million at current prices. With Tesla, Inc. 's share price rising recently, Wood's fund began to cut Tesla, Inc. 's position in early September, selling Tesla, Inc. 's shares worth nearly $770 million in 10 installments by Friday.

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  • All In! Zuckerberg: Facebook Inc's future lies in "Young people and Meta Universe"

Due to the pressure on advertising revenue and being in a whirlpool of public opinion$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $The third-quarter results came to a dismal end. Short-term performance pressure, coupled with frequent bad news, its shares ushered in a low emotional phase. Recently, Facebook Inc has made great efforts to build a "meta-universe" virtual digital world, which will become the driving force for his future income growth. Among Zuckerberg's ambitions, Facebook Inc's future development is not limited to social media, it begins to strategically seize the entrance to VRAR, and meta-universe vision is likely to be Facebook Inc's second growth curve in the future.

  • The price of Tesla, Inc. Model Spicer X long-lasting version increased by 30, 000 yuan.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $According to the Chinese official website, the prices of the long-lasting version of Model S and Model X have been raised by 30, 000 yuan, the latest prices are 889990 yuan and 939990 yuan, respectively, and delivery dates are expected to be in the first quarter of 2022. The prices of the Model S Plaid and Model X Plaid versions have not changed.big

  • Mizuho: raising the target price of AMD to US $135is expected to benefit from Intel Corp's transformation of contract manufacturing.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh will$Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.US) $Raised its target price to $135 from $110 and reiterated its buy rating on the stock. Rakesh said AMD published "robust" performance and performance guidelines, and Intel Corp recently accelerated the transformation of the contract manufacturing business, which could further increase AMD's market share in the server sector. In March, Northland analyst Gus Richard pointed out that Intel Corp's expansion into the contract manufacturing market will make AMD a priority for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, while Intel Corp will become an unpopular target. Therefore, it is expected that the development momentum of AMD's market share will continue.

Focus on China-listed stocks

  • Hot Chinese stocks fluctuated before the session.

  • The Ministry of Transport agrees with JD.com to carry out the pilot work of building a transportation power.

The Ministry of Transport agrees in principle$JD.com (JD.US) $Pilot projects will be carried out in intelligent logistics, green logistics, emergency logistics, multi-tier supply chain logistics network construction and unmanned logistics distribution. Make overall efforts to promote and highlight key points, and strive to make breakthroughs in intelligent supply chain platforms, green packaging and recycling, socialized emergency logistics system construction, diversified logistics organization service model innovation, and unmanned distribution of the whole process, and at the same time take necessary technical and management measures to ensure network and data security.

  • The Taobao shopping cart sharing function has been officially launched, which can be shared to social software such as Wechat.

Today$BABA (BABA.US) $Its Taobao shopping cart sharing function has been officially launched and can be shared to social software such as Wechat, QQ, Weibo Corp and Alipay. Unlike sharing links directly to platforms such as Weibo Corp and Alipay, users who share Taobao shopping carts to Tencent portals such as Wechat and QQ need to use a "Taobao password" as a carrier, similar to previous links to share individual items on Taobao with friends.

  • United Microelectronics Corp: Q3 revenue increased by 24.6% compared with the same period last year, and Q4 gross profit margin is expected to stabilize above 30%.

$United Microelectronics Corp (UMC.US) $The quarterly results show that revenue in the third quarter was NT $55.91 billion, up 9.8% from the previous month and 24.6% over the same period last year; net profit was NT $17.46 billion, with the market estimated at NT $13.78 billion; and the consolidated gross profit margin in the third quarter was 36.8%, with an operating profit margin of 27.1%. The company expects capacity to remain at full capacity in 2022.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Reminder of American Macro Calendar

The following are the specific arrangements for the release of U.S. macro data on October 27:

20:30 US September deduction of monthly shipping durable goods order rate (forecast 0.4%, previous value 0.3%)

20:30 monthly rate of US durable goods orders for September (forecast-1.1%, previous value 1.8%)

20:30 US merchandise trade balance in September (previous value-$88.16 billion)

20:30 US retail inventory except cars in September (previous value 0.6 per cent)

22:30 US weekly EIA crude oil inventory change (forecast value 1.914 million b / d, previous value-431000 b / d)

22:30 US weekly EIA Cushing crude inventory change (previous value-2.32 million barrels)

Changes in global important indicators

The latest change in US API crude oil inventories for the week was 2.318 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 3.294 million barrels.

In August, the latest annual rate of unseasonally adjusted house price index in S&P/CS20 major cities was 19.7%, compared with the previous value of 20.0% (revised).

The latest value of the Conference Board Consumer confidence Index in the United States in October was 113.8, compared with the previous value of 109.8 (revised).

The latest annualized total of new home sales in the United States after the quarterly adjustment in September was 800000 units, compared with a previous value of 702000 units (revised).

The latest monthly annualized rate of new home sales in the United States after the quarterly adjustment in September was 14.0%, compared with the previous value of 1.4% (revised).

The latest Gfk consumer confidence index in Germany in November was 0.9, compared with the previous value of 0.4 (revised).

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