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高澜股份(300499):Q3边际改善 上调盈利预测

Gaolan shares (300499): Q3 marginal improvement raises profit forecast

浙商證券 ·  Oct 27, 2021 00:00

Q3 net profit of deducting non-returning home increased by 37% in single quarter compared with the same period last year.

From January to September, the company's revenue of 1.063 billion yuan increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by the high growth of business related to Sixiang new energy vehicles. The net profit of 35.76 million yuan fell 19% compared with the same period last year, which was significantly narrower than that of 38% in the first half of the year.

Q3's single-quarter income of 423 million yuan increased by 35% compared with the same period last year, which increased 16pct compared with Q2. The return profit of 18.94 million yuan per quarter increased by 13% over the same period last year, reversing the decline of Q2, and the net profit after deducting non-return increased by 37% over the same period last year. Combined with minority equity data, we judge that Sixiang Q3 continues to increase, and the parent company recovers more obviously than Q2.

Gross profit margin is under pressure, and the effectiveness of cost control is gradually reflected.

Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the decline in the price of products, the company's gross profit margin fell by 28.38% from January to September compared with the same period last year. 2.62pct. However, the effectiveness of the company's cost control is gradually reflected. From January to September, the rate of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses decreased by 1.99, 1.55, up 0.28 and 1.16pct (the impact of convertible bond expenses). The comprehensive net interest rate from January to September decreased by 0.79% compared with the same period last year, and the net interest rate of Q3 increased by 7.16% compared with the same period last year. 1.11pct.

The development of business related to Sixiang new energy vehicles remains optimistic.

According to the Federation of passengers, Q3 new energy passenger vehicle sales this year are 806000, compared with 286000 in the same period last year, and this year's Q1/Q2 is 437, 000. new energy vehicle sales continue to grow faster than expected. With revenue growth of 223% in the first half of the year, coupled with the company's continued expansion of users, we have raised our profit forecast for Sixiang for 2022-23.

The progress of energy storage business is better than expected, and it is expected to open up a new space.

There is a wide space for energy storage and heat management. At present, the company has reserves based on lithium battery single cabinet energy storage liquid cooling products, large energy storage power station liquid cooling systems, prefabricated tank type energy storage liquid cooling products, etc., the company said that it has signed an order of about 11 million yuan (August). Cooperate with Ningde era in the field of energy storage.

Profit forecast and valuation

We judge that next year will be the performance inflection point: Sixiang continues to grow high; under the dual-carbon trend, the construction demand of UHV and wind power is optimistic, new customer expansion is superimposed, and pure water cooling equipment is expected to improve next year; new business such as energy storage is expected to bring further flexibility; unfavorable factors such as raw material costs are expected to improve. The profit forecast for 2022-23 is raised, and the net profit for 2021-23 is expected to be 0.81 trillion yuan, 153pm, 235 million yuan, PE 60-32-21 times, to maintain the "buy".

Risk tips: increased competition leads to lower gross profit margin of products; customer expansion and order acquisition are not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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