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金风科技(002202):盈利同比恢复 中速永磁获市场认可

Goldwind Technology (002202): Profit recovered year-on-year, medium speed permanent magnets were recognized by the market

西南證券 ·  Oct 26, 2021 00:00

Performance summary: the company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 33.55 billion yuan, down 9.40% from the same period last year; the net profit was 3.013 billion yuan, up 45.61% from the same period last year; and 2.853 billion yuan was deducted from non-return net profit, an increase of 53.73% over the same period last year. In the third quarter, the company achieved a net profit of 1.164 billion yuan, an increase of 46.58% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 1.13 billion yuan for non-net profit, an increase of 58.81% over the same period last year.

Profitability recovered from the same period last year, slightly affected by the rising cost of raw materials. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 26.28%, an increase of about 9pp over the same period last year, mainly due to the recovery of profits in the company's wind turbine business and a turnround in wind power services. At the same time, the company benefited from the shipment of the sea breeze project, and the unit price of the fan increased significantly. It is estimated that the average unit price of the wind turbine of 2021H1 Company is 4.22 yuan, which is about 24% higher than the price of 3.40 yuan per watt in 2020. On the other hand, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin fell slightly to 24.34% in the third quarter, mainly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials such as steel, copper and blade materials.

3ax 4S platform model has become the mainstream, and medium-speed permanent magnet products have been recognized by the market in a short time. In terms of the type and capacity of fan sales in the first three quarters of the company, the sales volume of the 3max 4S model 2511.22MW, accounting for about 40% of the total sales, is the largest type of fan shipped. From the point of view of on-hand orders, the order volume of the 3max 4S model is 9544.85MW, accounting for about 58% of the total orders, and the proportion is expected to increase further in the future. During the reporting period, the order size of the company's medium-speed permanent magnet products exceeded 670MW, accounting for about 5%, and the medium-speed permanent magnet products were recognized by the market in a short time. In October 2021, the company released a new generation of medium-speed permanent magnet intelligent fan, the new product is expected to help the company to make a breakthrough in medium-speed permanent magnet products.

Fan orders on hand remain stable. By the end of September 2021, the company's total hand-on-hand orders reached 16.4GW, which remained above 16GW on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the signed contract pending execution order 13.34GW, a small increase of about 391MW compared with the end of June, the future fan shipments have a more clear guarantee. We believe that in the future, under the scenic base of our country and the wind control plan of thousands of townships and villages, the demand for wind power installation will improve for a long time, and the company as a wind turbine leader will fully benefit.

Profit forecast and investment advice. In 2021, the company's business profitability has been greatly improved, in the future, the company's wind turbine and parts sales, wind power services and wind farm development business will continue to grow, and further enhance the company's profitability. We expect the company's parent net profit to grow at a compound growth rate of 14.79% over the next three years, maintaining a "hold" rating.

Risk tips: the risk that wind power installation is less than expected; the risk of rising raw material prices and the decline of company profitability; the change of wind turbine market pattern, the risk of intensified competition; the risk of policy change.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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