The original title buys these stocks crazily! Just now, the two top hundreds of billions of seasonal reports have been released! Zhang Kun spoke loudly: there is no bubble in the valuation of high-quality companies, and we can be more optimistic in the next three to five years! Liu Yanchun: mistakes will always be corrected!
Reporter Lu Huijing Fang Li
As the finale of the fund's three-quarter report in 2021, the third-quarter report of his fund disclosed in the early morning of October 27 by Zhang Kun, a hundred billion "public offering elder brother", has attracted the attention of the market.
Zhang Kun released a very obvious signal to increase positions in the three quarterly reports. According to the latest three quarterly reports, all four funds managed by Zhang Kun increased their positions in the third quarter. Among them, the stock position of Yi Fangda high-quality selected fund increased significantly to 92.31% from 70.36% at the end of the second quarter, returning to the state of high position operation.
The liquor sector was also increased by Zhang Kun in the third quarter, Luzhou laojiao, Guizhou MoutaiWuliangyeThe three major liquor stocks have returned to the top three heavy stocks of many funds under their management.
In addition, as the stock price of the white horse blue chip continued to fall, Zhang Kun also changed the slightly pessimistic expectation in the third quarterly report to the second quarterly report. He clearly pointed out in the third quarterly report that the valuation of high-quality companies has been basically reasonable, and the overall high-quality equity is still scarce, so in the next 3-5 years, we can be more optimistic about the compound returns of the stocks of these companies.
Yi Fangda high-quality selected stock position
A sharp increase of nearly 22 percentage points
Zhang Kun, known as "Kunkun", is the fund manager who attracts the most attention from the people. He is the first 100 billion-level active equity fund manager in China, and his huge amount of money makes him carry a lot of weight.
According to the table sorted out by the fund gentleman, compared with the end of the second quarter, the positions of the four funds managed by Zhang Kun all increased in the third quarter, and the positions were all above 90% at the end of the third quarter, maintaining high positions.
Of particular concern is Yi Fangda's high-quality selection (formerly known as Yi Fangda small and medium-sized caps). At the end of the second quarter, the stock position was only 70.36%. In fact, the stock position of this fund has not been less than 80% since the end of the third quarter of 2017. The second quarter is a relatively special situation. As a result, at the end of the third quarter, Yifangda's high-quality selected positions reached 92.31%, a sharp increase of nearly 22 percentage points compared with the second quarter.
On September 10 this year, the original Yi Fonda small and medium-sized mixed fund was changed to be registered as a high-quality selected mixed fund, and Hong Kong stocks were included in the scope of investment at the same time. Judging from the three quarterly reports of Yi Fangda's high-quality selection, Zhang Kun added his main positions to Hong Kong stocks in the third quarter. Data show that by the end of the third quarter, according to the investment distribution of stocks and depositary receipts in the securities markets of various countries (regions), China's fair value accounted for 70.72% of the fund's net asset value, while Hong Kong, China accounted for 22.85%.
In fact, the proportion of Hong Kong stocks allocated to the other three funds managed by Zhang Kun is not low. By the end of the third quarter, the market value of Hong Kong stocks held by high-quality enterprises for three years and selected blue-chip holdings by Yifangda reached 22.64% and 23.44% of the fund's net asset value, respectively. The proportion of Hong Kong stocks selected by Yi Fonda Asia, the QDII fund, reached 88.67%.
The three major liquor stocks return to the top three heavy stocks of Yifangda blue chip.
Although Zhang Kun has held shares for a long time and is famous for his low turnover rate, in the past three quarters, he still carried out a large-scale stock exchange, increasing the overall positions in the food, beverage and banking sectors. Among the liquor stocks, Luzhou laojiao, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye returned to the top three major positions selected by Yifangda Blue Chip, China Merchants Bank.And Ping an BankIt appears in the top ten stocks of many funds he manages.
First, let's take a look at the largest blue-chip selected fund he manages. According to the fund's third quarterly report, Zhang Kun reduced his holdings in Luzhou laojiao and Guizhou Moutai and increased Wuliangye in the operation of liquor stocks in the third quarter. Luzhou Laojiao and Guizhou Moutai replaced Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing and China Merchants Bank as the first and second largest stocks in Yifangda blue-chip selected funds, and Wuliangye continued to rank as its third largest stock. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing retreated to the fifth largest stock. China Merchants Bank's H shares have also been significantly reduced by Zhang Kun.
In addition, Yili sharesPing an Bank New entrant Yi Fangda Blue Chip selected Top Ten heavy stocks, Meituan, Ayre OphthalmologyWithdraw from the top ten heavy stocks.
On September 10 this year, the original Yi Fangda small and medium-sized mixed fund was changed to be registered as a Yi Fangda high-quality selected mixed fund, while Hong Kong stocks were included in the scope of investment. judging from the latest disclosure of the three quarterly reports, after the fund contract officially came into effect, Zhang Kun made a large-scale change of positions and actively bought Hong Kong stocks, and many "new faces" appeared in the top ten heavy stocks.
Compared with the top 10 stocks of the fund at the end of the second quarter, Guizhou Moutai replaced General Strategy Medical.It has become the number one heavy warehouse stock of Yi Fangda quality selection fund, Wuliangye has been promoted to the second largest heavy warehouse stock, and the average coefficient of the top ten heavy warehouse stocks in the second quarter has been replaced. China Merchants Bank, Tencent Co., Ltd., Luzhou laojiao, Yili Co., Ltd., Haikang Weishi, Ping an Bank, Hong Kong exchanges and Clearing Co., Ltd., JD.com Group Co., Ltd. newly entered the top 10 heavy stocks, Tongshi Medical, Hang Seng Electronics., Hualan organism, Temple of Heaven creatures, Mei Nian Health, Bairun shares, Subor, the torch is high-techWithdraw from the top ten heavy stocks.
Another fund he manages, the Yifangda quality Enterprise three-year holding mixed Fund, also takes Luzhou laojiao, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye as the top three heavy stocks, Haikang Weishi and Yanghe shares.Retreated to the fourth and fifth largest stocks. The top ten stocks in the new China Merchants Bank, Yili shares, Meituan-W, Ayre ophthalmology withdrew from the top ten stocks.
The scale of Zhang Kun's management shrank in the third quarter.
He is still at the helm of hundreds of billions of funds.
Zhang Kun is the first active equity fund manager in the industry to manage more than 100 billion yuan. Under the market turmoil this year, Zhang Kun's management scale has shrunk in the third quarter, but the overall scale still exceeds 100 billion yuan.
By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the total size of the four funds managed by Yi Fangda Zhang Kun reached 105.748 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.73 billion yuan compared with the end of the second quarter. This is also the first decline in Zhang Kun's management scale this year.
Among them, the scale of Yifangda blue chip selection, Yifangda quality selection, Yifangda advantageous enterprises for three years, and Yifangda Asia selected stocks are 69.847 billion yuan, 21.662 billion yuan, 9.925 billion yuan and 4.315 billion yuan respectively. In addition to the increase in the size of Yi Fonda's Asian selection, the size of the other funds have all declined. The size of Yi Fonda's blue-chip selection and Yi Fonda's high-quality selection have both decreased by more than 20% compared with the second quarter.
Yi Fangda quality selection (the original Yi Fangda small and medium size) has suspended the purchase, conversion and regular fixed investment business since February 24, 2021, and can only be redeemed, but cannot be purchased. The scale has declined for three consecutive quarters, from more than 40 billion at the end of last year to the current more than 20 billion. The net value and share of Yifangda blue chip selected funds also declined in the third quarter.
Yifangda blue chip selection third quarter share redemption
Zhang Kun's latest view:
There is no bubble in the valuation of high-quality companies.
We can be more optimistic in the next three to five years.
The fund quarterly report is a "window" for fund managers to communicate with investors. Zhang Kun shares his thoughts and insights on investment every time in the quarterly report. There is no empty talk. He is a very sincere fund manager. He also talked about his latest investment views in the three quarterly reports.
Zhang Kun wrote in the third quarterly report of Yifangda Blue Chip selection and other funds:
In the third quarter, against the backdrop of shrinking supply, many commodity prices rose significantly. At the same time, with property sales weakening, the economy is facing some downward pressure. In terms of the stock market, there was obvious differentiation in the third quarter, with coal, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, power and other industries performing better, while textile and clothing, home appliances, food and beverage, medicine, consumer services and other industries lagged behind.
In the third quarter, the fund slightly increased its stock position, adjusted its structure, increased the allocation of food and beverage, banking and other industries, and reduced the allocation of pharmaceutical, Internet and other industries. In terms of individual stocks, we still hold high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns and strong competitiveness.
We believe that the business model, the moat and the prospect of the industry jointly determine the pricing power of the enterprise, which is one of the most lasting determinants of high return on investment. In a short period of time, stocks are usually driven by other factors, such as macroeconomic or breaking news, which makes investing in high-quality companies with pricing power often boring in the short term, so the low risk associated with investing in these high-quality companies can only be observed over a long period of time.
Due to market concerns about the economic and corporate earnings downturn in the coming quarters, as well as concerns about policy uncertainty, the share prices of some listed companies that have been operating well for a long time have fallen significantly recently. We believe that after this round of decline, the valuations of these high-quality companies have been basically reasonable. If we make a combination, we are confident about its overall business model, moat and industry prospects, and these companies are expected to achieve a highly reliable compound profit growth in the next 3-5 years. Although we do not know whether there will be periodic undervaluation (similar to the end of 2018), we think that because there is no bubble in the starting point valuation and the overall high-quality equity is still scarce, in the next 3-5 years, we can be more optimistic about the compound returns of the stocks of these companies.
Liu Yanchun continues to focus on the liquor leader.
Latest ideas:
Market style is changing, and this is just the beginning
In addition, the top ten stocks of Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi managed by Liu Yanchun, a well-known 100 billion fund manager, remained stable in the third quarter, except that the order of individual stocks changed, Luzhou laojiao, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye and Gujinggong LiquorLiquor stocks continue to enter the top 10, compared with the end of the second quarter, the school uniform reduced the holdings of 430000 Luzhou laojiao, but increased the holdings of Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye. It shows that Liu Yanchun continues to be optimistic about liquor stocks.
In addition, Liu Yanchun also increased his holdings of China Intermediate exemption., Mindray MedicalHehai University GroupThere is no change in the holdings of other heavy stocks, especially in the case of Zhang Kun's substantial reduction in Ayre Ophthalmology, Liu Yanchun's holdings remain unchanged.
In terms of share, Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi maintained a net purchase application in the third quarter, with a slight increase in share.
In the quarterly report of Jingshun Dingyi, looking forward to future investment, Liu Yanchun said that the downward pressure on the domestic economy increased in the third quarter. What is different from the past is that in this cycle, while demand has fallen, raw material prices have risen sharply. Under the background of "double control of energy consumption", the active contraction of the supply side pushes up the price of raw materials. At the same time, the manufacturing industry in the middle reaches is facing the pressure of declining demand and rising costs, and the small and medium-sized enterprises with weak ability to transfer costs are suffering.
The local recurrence of the epidemic has a direct impact on residents' consumption, and the slow growth of residents' income has a more long-term impact. Affected by regulation and the spread of news of default by real estate companies, real estate sales are weak and real estate investment tends to be cautious. The phenomenon of unsuccessful land auctions in many places also indicates that there is a risk of continuous decline in real estate investment in the future. On the export side, the data on new orders has begun to weaken. With the approach of the Fed's time window for reducing bond purchases and the withdrawal of the fiscal subsidy policy, the pulling effect of external demand on China's economy will gradually decrease.
Policy adjustment has begun, and efforts are expected to be gradually intensified in the future. Policies that exert pressure on real estate, financing vehicles, backward production capacity and other limits may be marginal revised. On the supply side, there is a high probability that the situation of "across-the-board" electricity production and "sports" carbon reduction in some cities will be corrected. On the demand side, it is expected that the issuance of local bonds will accelerate, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will increase, and the fiscal post at the end of the year and the fiscal front at the beginning of next year will jointly support the economy. In the real estate sector, under the premise of insisting on housing speculation, the intensity of policy tightening is expected to be adjusted, and there is a possibility of periodic relaxation in some cities.
Market style is changing, and this is just the beginning. Marginal boom pricing has reached its peak this year, but share prices will eventually return to their intrinsic value. The seemingly drastic business fluctuations in the short term have little impact on stock pricing in the long run. Mistakes will always be corrected, just as the epidemic will eventually pass. Industries and stocks that have been hurt by rising costs, falling demand and policy disruptions are now likely to be a good opportunity for layout.