Main points of investment:
Adjust the profit forecast, maintain the target price and increase the rating. Taking into account the impact of non-recurrent profit and loss on profit and the impact of the increase in shelving rate on gross profit margin, the net profit forecast for 2021-2023 is 1.79exp 2.96x3.95 (the previous value is 2.06x2x392), corresponding to earnings per share of 0.47exp 0.77x1.04 yuan respectively. Considering that the company is in the period of rapid release of reserve projects, it is considered that the company is in the period of rapid release of reserve projects. The future increase in the number of cabinets and shelf rate climbing space is still obvious, with reference to the industry valuation level, maintain the target price and increase the rating unchanged.
The performance was in line with expectations, and the profit after deduction increased by 77.7% compared with the same period last year. The reason why the profit growth rate after deduction is much higher than that before deduction is due to the investment income calculated at fair value of indirectly held shares of amethyst storage, microniche and print core, in which the investment income of amethyst storage is-21.3331 million yuan. it is calculated based on the closing price difference between September 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020, and it is only the change in fair value. In fact, the company's amethyst storage shares are still profitable for the company.
The self-built data center construction project was carried out in an orderly manner and reached an intention to cooperate with Baidu, Inc. on the Nansha data center project. This year, key projects will be promoted: (1) the expansion of Langfang Xunyun data Center; (2) the new construction of Langfang Gu'an data Center; and (3) more than 10000 new data centers in Nansha, Guangzhou. Future reserve projects: (1) projects with a construction scale of no more than 12000 high-power cabinets in Wuqing District of Tianjin; (2) about 3300 high-power cabinets in the first phase of the Kunming project; and (3) about 2200 cabinets in cooperation with Jiangxi Unicom in Nanchang City. The company and Baidu, Inc. have reached a cooperation intention to provide 2000 customized high-power cabinets, of which 500 will be delivered before February 28, 2022, with a service period of 6 years. It is estimated that the total revenue of this project during the cooperation period is about 1 billion yuan.
Catalyst: downstream customers speed up the shelves, and the reserve project is delivered smoothly.
Risk tip: data center delivery may not be as expected, downstream customers on the shelf may not be as expected.