Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK): it is expected that the rebound in trading will drive Q3's main income to be the same as / month-on-month ratio + 10% / 12%.

中金公司 · Oct 10, 2021 00:00

　　预测3Q21 盈利同比-5%/环比+15%；1-3Q21 盈利同比+14%港交所将于10 月27 日披露三季度业绩，我们预计公司Q3 总收入同比-1%/环比+6%至53 亿港币，剔除投资收益后主营收入同比+10%/环比+12%至51 亿港币，主要受ADT同/环比提升带动；Q3 盈利同比-5%/环比+15%至32 亿港币，盈利同比表现低于ADT增速（+17%YoY），主因投资收益随市回落及衍生品ADV同比小幅下滑影响。

　　关注要点

　　预计ADT同/环比回升带动主营业务保持增长：1）Q3 港股整体市值环比-16%至44 万亿港币、但换手率+0.24xQoQ至0.92x，带动ADT环比+9%至1,653 亿港币（同比+17%），其中南下ADT同比+55%/环比+20%至425 亿港币、占港股比重12.8%，北上ADT同比+19%/环比+38%至1,397 亿元、占A股比重5.4%。2）衍生品市场，股指期货ADV环比回升（+24%QoQ）、同比降幅收窄（-5%YoY），个股期权ADV持续增长（同比+19%/环比+22%）。3）LME商品成交量保持平稳、同比+2%/环比-1%。

　　4）上市方面，受市场波动及行业监管影响，3Q完成IPO 27 家（同比-32.5%/环比+93%）、融资额741.5 亿港币（同比-39.8%/环比-2.9%）。当前排队企业达212 家、处于历史高位，随着市场回暖上市进程有望加快。

　　预计投资收益保持低位。我们预计Q3 投资收入同比-5 亿（-74%YoY）、环比-2.1 亿（-54%QoQ）至1.8 亿港币，主因集合投资计划随市回落：3Q21MSCI Word Index -0.6%、MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index-10%。此外，6MHIBOR环比进一步下滑（环比-5bps至0.25%）使保证金投资收益保持低位。

　　改革有序推进、预计MSCI A股期货2022 年起逐步增厚可观盈利。三季度以来，MSCI A股期货及债券南向通获批、SPAC咨询出台，市场改革有序落地。我们认为，1）港交所的A50 合约较现行产品在客户基础、交易便利性及合约设计上更优，初期或存在折扣定价且流动性的搭建尚需时间，但中长期稳态下有望增厚盈利6.5-12 亿港币、占2021e净利润5%-9%（见图1）；2）债券南向通的起航意味着我国债券市场对外开放的闭环达成，助力港交所把握人民币国际化机遇、拓展FIC市场业务；3）SPAC制度的潜在推出将有助于港交所吸引更多来自大中华、东南亚乃至全球的企业上市，提升其作为亚洲时区领先的全球新股市场的吸引力，进一步促进市场扩容和交投活跃。

　　估值与建议

　　因调整投资收益假设，我们下修2021/2022 年盈利2.9%/3.8%至130 亿港币（同比+13%）/154 亿港币（同比+18%）。公司交易于2021/22e46x/39x P/E。维持跑赢行业及目标价611 港币，对应50x 2022e P/E及29%上行空间。

　　风险

　　市场活跃度回落；新产品推出后活跃度及新经济上市进程不及预期。

Forecast 3Q21 profit year-on-year-5% / month-on-month + 15%-3Q21 profit year-on-year + 14% HKEx will disclose third-quarter results on October 27. We expect the company's Q3 total revenue year-on-year-1% / month-on-month + 6% to HK $5.3 billion. Excluding investment income, the main revenue year-on-year + 10% / month-on-month + 12% to HK $5.1 billion, mainly driven by the increase in ADT. Q3 earnings range from-5 per cent to HK $3.2 billion compared with the same period last year, which is lower than the growth rate of ADT (+ 17%YoY), mainly due to the decline in investment income with the market and the slight decline in derivatives ADV compared with the same period last year.

Pay attention to the main points

The rebound in ADT is expected to lead to the growth of the main business: 1) the overall market capitalization of Q3 Hong Kong stocks is-16% to HK $44 trillion, but the turnover rate is + 0.24xQoQ to HK $0.92x, driving ADT to HK $165.3 billion (year-on-year + 17%). Among them, southbound ADT is + 55% / month-on-month + 20% to HK $42.5 billion, accounting for 12.8% of Hong Kong shares, and northward ADT is + 19% / month-on-month + 38% to 139.7 billion yuan, accounting for 5.4% of A shares. 2) in the derivatives market, stock index futures ADV rebounded month-on-month (+ 24%QoQ), year-on-year decline narrowed (- 5%YoY), and individual stock option ADV continued to grow (year-on-year + 19% / month-on-month + 22%). 3) the trading volume of LME goods remains stable, with a year-on-year ratio of + 2% / month-on-month.

4) in terms of listing, under the influence of market fluctuations and industry regulation, 3Q completed 27 IPO (year-on-year-32.5% / month-on-month + 93%) and raised HK $74.15 billion (year-on-year-39.8% / month-on-month-2.9%). At present, there are 212 queuing enterprises, which are at an all-time high, and the listing process is expected to speed up as the market picks up.

Investment returns are expected to remain low. We expect Q3 investment income from-500 million (- 74%YoY) and-210 million (- 54%QoQ) to 180 million Hong Kong dollars compared with the same period last year, mainly because the pooled investment plan fell with the market: 3Q21MSCI Word Index- 0.6%, MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index-10%. In addition, further month-on-month declines in 6MHIBOR (- 5bps to 0.25%) keep margin investment returns low.

The reform is carried out in an orderly manner, and it is expected that MSCI A-share futures will gradually thicken and make considerable profits from 2022. Since the third quarter, MSCI A-share futures and bonds southward has been approved, SPAC consultation has been introduced, and market reform has landed in an orderly manner. We believe that 1) HKEx's A50 contract is better than current products in terms of customer base, trading convenience and contract design, and it may take time to set up discounted pricing and liquidity in the initial stage. however, in the medium-and long-term steady state, the profit is expected to increase by HK $6.5-1.2 billion, accounting for 5% of 2021e net profit (see figure 1). 2) the start of southbound Bond Link means a closed-loop opening up of China's bond market, which will help HKEx seize the opportunity of RMB internationalization and expand its FIC market business; 3) the potential launch of the SPAC system will help HKEx attract more companies from Greater China, Southeast Asia and even the world to list, enhance its attractiveness as the leading global IPO market in Asia's time zone, and further promote market expansion and active trading.

Valuation and suggestion

As a result of adjusting the investment income assumption, we next revise 2021 Universe's profit of 2.9% to HK $13 billion (year-on-year + 13%) / HK $15.4 billion (year-on-year + 18%) in 2022. The company trades on 2021/22e46x/39x Pamp E. Maintain an outperform industry and target price of HK $611, corresponding to 50x 2022e Pmax E and 29% upside space.

Risk

The market activity has declined; the activity after the launch of new products and the listing process of the new economy are not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

香港交易所(00388.HK)：料交易回升带动Q3主营收入同/环比+10%/12%

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK): it is expected that the rebound in trading will drive Q3's main income to be the same as / month-on-month ratio + 10% / 12%.

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