Phoenix New Media Hong Kong stocks | Guotai Junan reported that the National Bureau of Statistics released social zero data for September 2021: total social zero year-on-year + 4.4% (August + 2.5%), an increase of 7.8% compared with September 2019, and a two-year average of + 3.8% (month + 1.5%). Excluding cars year-on-year + 6.4% (August + 3.6%); excluding price factors, real growth of 2.5% in September 2021 (August + 0.9) Above the quota increased by 2.8% in September (August + 0.5%), with a two-year average of + 4.0% (August + 2.4%).

The bank believes that service consumption has recovered significantly month-on-month, but the demand trend is still flat. 1 the epidemic situation is under control, the consumption of services has obviously recovered, and retail sales have also benefited, but at a higher base, it still slows down month-on-month compared with July, when there is no impact of the epidemic. 2 two-year compound growth dimension: above the quota, the growth rate of goods in August / September (+ 6.2pm / 5.3pm / 2.9pm / 4.1%) and catering revenue (+ 5.8pm / 5.3pm / 3.9pm / 3.7pm) slows down obviously, indicating that demand is still weak. (3) the M-type trend of consumption is still obvious, and the two-year compound growth rate of optional high-end gold jewelry (+ 16.5%) / cosmetics (+ 8.7%), and basic consumption of tobacco and alcohol (+ 16.8%) / beverages (+ 15.9%) / food, grain and oil (+ 8.5%) is a better subdivision.

The bank recommends that A shares recommend targets: China China Free, Tongqing Building, Jinjiang Hotel, first Travel Hotel; Chao Acer, Commodity City, Chongqing Department Store, Metro; Hong Kong stocks and US stocks: Helens (09869), Meituan-W (03690), JD.com Group-SW (09618).