Original title: in the early stage, the bank is optimistic about the long-term prospect of "hot in the north and cold in the south".
Ma Chuanmao and Liu Xiaoyou, a reporter from the Securities Times.
There are generally two expectations for the initial performance of the cross-border LiCaiTong pilot project by the interviewed banks.
On the one hand, the scale of cross-border LiCaiTong business at the beginning of the pilot is not easy to increase. "affected by the epidemic, customs clearance between the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao is temporarily restricted. It is expected that the demand for cross-border LiCaiTong business at the initial stage of the pilot is relatively small, but he is firmly optimistic about the medium-and long-term trend." The relevant person in charge of Xiamen International Bank said.
In China Merchants Bank's view, cross-border involves not only capital flows, but also different regulatory systems, product systems, capital attributes, investment target expectations, and financial market development stages. therefore, all parties do not want to rush into a large amount of business at the initial stage of the pilot project.
"at the initial stage, we still have a 'steady start and controllable risk'. We will first get through this road, and on this basis, we will sum up experience and move forward steadily. Therefore, at this stage, we have not set some expected goals in terms of the number of accounts and the scale of assets. I believe we can get more customers' favor if we do a good job in experience, service, and brand." The relevant responsible person of China Merchants Bank believes that.
On the other hand, affected by the initial product composition, yield differences and other factors, a number of interviewees predicted that the pilot may appear "cold in the south and hot in the north" situation.
Among them, the disparity in the yield of financial products becomes the key. "it is quite comfortable to make a wealth management product with a yield of 4% to 5% in the mainland. But in Hong Kong, 2% and 3% will be robbed. " Some analysts jokingly call this the yield "hanging fight". He believes that the main needs of customers in Hong Kong and Macao are relatively clear, that is, to participate in the higher-yielding financial management market in the mainland. At present, the amount of offshore RMB accumulated in the Hong Kong market is more than 600 billion yuan, but the investment channels for overseas RMB are limited and the overall rate of return is not high.
"it should be said that there is indeed a gap in returns between the two sides. Comparing the deposit interest rate, we can see that the initial products of Nanxiangtong are basically related to bonds, the share of rights and interests is relatively low, and the purchase funds are closed, so they can only go out and can only return the same way. so from the point of view of our survey of customers' wishes, it is true that the demand in the north direction may be higher than that in the south direction." The aforementioned China Merchants Bank responsible person disclosed.
At the same time, he judged that at the initial stage, Southern Xiangtong customers may make some tentative configurations. "they are still interested in some distinctive products, such as products that often pay dividends, including some Hong Kong dollar and US dollar bonds."
In addition to the gap in product yield, the difference in the level of financial science and technology among the three banks may aggravate the phenomenon of "cold in the south and hot in the north". "We can see that Hong Kong and Macao banks have increased their investment in science and technology in recent years, but there is still a big gap between Hong Kong and Macao banks and mainland banks in account opening, personal online banking, mobile phone App fluency and purchasing experience. Hong Kong and Macao investors may soon apply the product purchase process of mainland banks, and southbound customers may not be able to adapt to this gap in user experience." Some Hong Kong-funded banks said.
Even so, the expectations at the beginning of the pilot did not affect the interviewees' collective optimism about the development prospects of cross-border LiCaiTong business. "in the short term, due to the lack of customs clearance, as well as the acceptance process of new things, product layout and other factors, it will not be increased quickly, but the wealth accumulation and cross-border investment needs in the Greater Bay area can not be ignored."
Chen Qingyao, general manager of HSBC Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Business Department, also believes that judging from the development process of stock market communication and bond communication, it is expected that the investment scale of cross-border LiCaiTong will increase significantly two to three years after its launch.
"We expect that the scale of both-way investment will gradually increase with the progress of the plan." Chen Qingyao said that the financial markets of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao are highly complementary. "for mainland investors, the biggest attraction of cross-border LiCaiTong is that Hong Kong and Macao wealth management products can help them allocate assets around the world; for Hong Kong and Macao residents, the steady development of the mainland economy and the relatively stable value of the renminbi have made RMB assets more attractive."
At the previous press conference, the relevant regulatory authorities also said that the total limit of business pilot and the limit of individual investors will be timely adjusted according to market demand and economic situation, so as to meet market demand as far as possible under the premise that the risk is controllable.