Main points of investment
The performance is in line with expectations, and the business structure is significantly optimized.
In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 926 million (+ 12.69%), net profit of 160 million (+ 21.10%) and non-net profit of 152 million (+ 44.78%). The single Q3 revenue is 330 million (+ 1.87%), the return net profit is 59 million (+ 16.64%), and the non-net profit is 57 million (+ 26.28%). The profit growth rate far exceeds the income growth rate is expected to be mainly due to the adjustment and optimization of the income structure. The relatively low revenue growth is mainly due to the contraction of the distribution business. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin increased by 29.45% compared with the same period last year (gross profit margin + 3.69pct in the third quarter), which also reflects the significant increase in profitability due to the increase in the proportion of high-margin cross-border e-commerce logistics business. Cost-side investment remains stable, mainly in strengthening the technical strength of intelligent logistics.
The outbound logistics business of cross-border e-commerce began to break out, and the customer development of automotive industry chain logistics business smoothly with the commissioning of part of the second phase of Jiacheng International Port, the strong demand is directly reflected in the company's cross-border e-commerce outbound logistics business, with cumulative revenue exceeding 60 million yuan. Tmall international trade business has also been added to the cross-border e-commerce inbound logistics business, and the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics business is booming.
In terms of manufacturing logistics business, the company has cut into the automotive industry supply chain logistics field, and has newly undertaken part of the automobile and spare parts logistics business of BAIC Zhongdu Logistics and Guangzhou Automobile Group parts suppliers. The automobile industry has a very high demand for supply chain services in various sub-industries, and it is only natural for the company to set foot in this field by virtue of its own model and ability advantages, which will also become a new development direction of the company's manufacturing logistics business.
The second phase of Ka-shing International Port is completed and the performance is about to break out.
Ka-shing International Port (Phase II) was basically completed and began trial operation, which is expected to be put into operation on a large scale this year. With the full production of the second phase of Jiacheng International Port, the cross-border e-commerce logistics business will make the company's report form Q1 have great flexibility in 2022. In view of the special policy advantages of Hainan, the company already has a systematic business layout in Hainan and will become an important performance driver in the future. At present, the total area of the logistics center that has been built, planned to be built and to be built to support the development of cross-border e-commerce business will reach about 1.8 million square meters, and the rapid growth of performance in the next five years has been guaranteed.
Profit forecast and valuation: raise earnings forecast and maintain buy rating with reference to the company's current layout and achievements, we believe that Ka-shing International is the direct beneficiary of cross-border e-commerce track dividends and the "water seller" of the cross-border e-commerce industry. Cross-border export business contributes 6000 million in income. in view of the arrival of the peak demand season for export Q4 and the stable progress of production, it is expected that the profit of Q3 is expected to maintain the trend of month-on-month comparison, while the company's business income structure is adjusted, so we raise our profit forecast and adjust our revenue forecast. In 2021-23, revenue is estimated to be RMB 13.45, 19.75, 2.633 million yuan, an increase of 16.8%, 46.9%, 33.3%, 2.23, 390, and 329 million, respectively, and an increase of 38.1%, 74.7%, 35.7%, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5, 14.14, 10.3X. After the second phase of Ka-shing International Port fully reaches production, Q1 will detonate the company's performance in 2022. After the existing project reaches full production, the company's long-term profit will exceed 1 billion and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the speed of project construction is slow; the prosperity of cross-border e-commerce is declining; the loss of key customers.