The performance is in line with expectations, and the contribution of lithium materials is significantly elastic. Benefiting from the high prosperity downstream of lithium electricity & the steady growth of medicine, the company's revenue scale continues to expand. 2021Q1-Q3 revenue 3.27 billion, year-on-year + 32.3%, home net profit 375 million, year-on-year + 65%, deducting non-net profit 411 million, year-on-year + 201%. Among them, Q3 revenue is 1.3 billion, month-on-month ratio + 16.1%, non-return mother 234 million, month-on-month ratio + 157%, mainly due to the price elasticity of lithium battery material 6F-VC gradually contributes to the performance increment.
The trend of capacity expansion in the industry is clear, and the leader is expected to pass through the cycle. In the case of industry shortage, manufacturers in 6F, VC, double fluorine and other product industries are planning large-scale production expansion, we think that enterprises with the following characteristics are expected to pass through the cycle: 1) short-term: in the case of supply and demand shortage, as each project is gradually put into production, the balance between supply and demand is constantly modified, the price is expected to gradually return, and the production schedule determines the excess income. 2) in the medium term: supply and demand gradually improve, locking customers is expected to ensure volume and price stabilization.
3) long-term: oversupply, with cost as the king, with cost advantages (integration, recycling, process leading) is expected to pass through the cycle.
Put into production leading market & bind big customers & introduce new technology, Yongtai is expected to pass through the cycle. At present, the company has 6F production capacity of 2000 tons, 5000 tons of VC, 3000 tons of FEC has been gradually put into production, Q4 is expected to fully reach production. With the advantage of resource integration, 21Q4 is expected to add 6000 tons of 6F, 22Q1 is expected to add 5000 tons of VC,22Q4 is expected to add 20000 tons of VC, 20000 tons of solid liquid 6F, ahead of the industry market to enjoy more excess returns. At the same time, the company and Ningde locked the long order, announced the conversion to liquid 6F, double fluorine process, is expected to help the cost to further explore.
Investment suggestion: the company enters the head enterprise to prove the product strength, the company is currently in production and planning 6F production capacity of 28000 tons, VC30000 tons, FEC8000 tons, LiFSI20500 tons, is the largest domestic electrolyte solute production capacity, the most complete category of third-party suppliers, in the short term will benefit from 6F, VC and other shortages, long-term into C supporting lock long-term profits are expected to pass through the cycle. We adjust the profit forecast and estimate that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue is 49,85.6,11.78 billion (the previous value is 42.6,79.4 and 9.27 billion), the net profit is 7.65,20.2 and 2.86 billion (the previous value is 3.55,11.1 and 1.25 billion), the EPS is 0.87,2.31,3.26 (the previous value is 0.41,1.26,1.44 yuan), and the corresponding PE is 65,24,17 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles is not as expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is not as expected, the company's capacity expansion is not as expected, and the product price is lower than expected. The company's production capacity and sales measurement deviation risk: for the company's lithium electricity business calculation, based on certain assumptions, there is an actual unattainable, less than expected risk.