RBCCapital Markets表示，全球石油市场正在形成一个强劲的牛市周期，由供应收紧和需求增强主导。该机构分析师Michael Tran在报告中说：“我们维持全年一直持有的观点——石油市场仍处于持续多年的结构性强势周期的初期阶段。”
Original title: international crude oil rose for the eighth week in a row, IEA warned of an unhealthy tendency
International oil prices climbed on Friday (October 15) and are expected to rise by more than 3% this week. There are growing signs of strong oil demand and tight supply in the coming months as soaring natural gas and coal prices prompt a shift to oil products.
Crude oil futures rose 0.93 per cent to $82.07 per barrel, while ICE Brent futures rose 1.01 per cent to $84.85 per barrel. The two major contracts have risen for eight weeks in a row, with cumulative increases of 2.99% and 2.69% respectively this week.
Analysts point out that oil inventories in OECD countries have fallen sharply to their lowest level since 2015. Demand has rebounded from its trough during the outbreak and has been further stimulated by the industrial sector's shift from natural gas and coal to fuel oil and diesel power generation.
"Asian markets are content to catch up at weekly highs rather than lurking when prices fall, which is a strong signal that energy demand remains strong," Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at OANDA, said in a report.
Energy shortages are expected to increase oil demand by 500000 barrels a day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. This will lead to a supply shortfall of about 700000 b / d by the end of this year until OPEC and its allies increase supply as planned in January.
In its monthly oil report, IEA said: "record coal and natural gas prices and repeated blackouts are driving the power sector and energy-intensive industries to shift to oil to keep lighting and factories running. But higher energy prices have also exacerbated inflationary pressures, coupled with power outages, which could lead to a reduction in industrial activity and a slowdown in economic recovery. "
IEA noted that the surge in demand last quarter led to the biggest decline in inventories of petroleum products in eight years, while inventory levels in OECD countries were at their lowest level since early 2015. And stressed: "the economic recovery is overly dependent on fossil fuels or unsustainable." If the world is to respond effectively to climate change, global investment in renewable energy needs to triple by 2030. "
Vivek Dhar, commodities analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "the energy crisis, especially coal and natural gas, has indeed pushed up the overall price of energy, and oil has benefited from it. It is now in a narrow time window, supply and demand may be significantly tightened, but it depends on the weather. "
RBCCapital Markets said the global oil market was forming a strong bull cycle dominated by tighter supply and stronger demand. "We maintain the view we have held throughout the year that the oil market is still in the early stages of a strong structural cycle that has lasted for many years," Michael Tran, an analyst at the agency, said in a report.
Crude oil stocks rose 6.088 million barrels to 427 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 8, compared with analysts' expectations of an increase of 1.05 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. But investors shrugged off last week's higher-than-expected rise in US crude inventories as refinery supplies fell.