Investment highlights for the first time to cover Acer Blue (300816) to outperform the industry rating, the target price of 62.77 yuan, the corresponding valuation multiple of 30x. The reasons are as follows:
Deep ploughing engine exhaust post-treatment system, excellent technology among the first-class in the industry. Founded by the doctoral team, the company has independently mastered the core technology of tail gas post-treatment, and has accumulated rich practical experience in the upgrading of emission standards for more than a decade. In recent years, the company's revenue and profits have achieved steady growth, we believe that with the continuous expansion of downstream demand to form economies of scale, there is a broad space to improve the company's profitability.
The emission standard has entered the new stage of national six, and the post-processing industry has ushered in a good opportunity for development. The sixth grade standard has been significantly upgraded, and the value of bicycle catalyst has been greatly increased. According to our estimation, under the background of the sixth national standard, the market space of tail gas post-treatment catalyst can reach about 80 billion yuan, which provides strong support for the company's downstream demand.
Domestic substitution brings the improvement of profit margin, and "from light to heavy" brings the increase of market share. At present, the catalyst market is mainly dominated by overseas giants, while Chinese brands have stronger price advantages and service capabilities. we believe that the localization process is expected to increase the company's market share. At the same time, the company is expected to make use of its rich experience in the light vehicle market and the relevance of product technology to quickly seize the No. 6 heavy vehicle market, significantly enhance its market position in the heavy vehicle field, and achieve both market share and performance improvement.
The biggest difference between us and the market: the market is not fully aware of the company's own technological advantages and the larger downstream demand increment brought to the company by switching countries 6. Potential catalyst: the sixth national emission standard has been fully landed, the downstream market demand of the company has been expanded, and the company has made use of its own technical advantages and customer structure to quickly seize the heavy vehicle market and enhance the overall competitiveness of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation we estimate that the company's EPS in 21 / 22 is 2.09yuan, 2.91yuan respectively, and CAGR is 39.2%. We expect the company to achieve 25.0% revenue growth of 48.7% in 2021 / 2022 and 33.5% net profit growth of 39.2%. Acer Blue's current share price is equivalent to 24.1 times Pmax E in 2021. Taking into account the company's own technological advantages and customer resource advantages, we covered and rated the outperforming industry for the first time. The target price of A shares is 62.77 yuan, corresponding to 30 times Phand E in 2021, which is 24.3% higher than the current stock price.
Risk raw material price fluctuation risk; company cash flow risk; customer concentration risk.