In the expectation of global shortage, coal prices hit an all-time high again! According to the Chinese reporter of the brokerage, on October 9, the spot price of thermal coal port rose sharply, breaking through the historic mark of 2000 yuan / ton; on October 11, the spot price of thermal coal reached 2200 yuan / ton, setting a new historical record.

It is worth noting that after Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places have issued policies to increase production and guarantee supply, thermal coal futures fell sharply on Friday. However, with the increase in spot stock over the weekend, the discount for future cash has become larger. On October 11, thermal coal opened strongly in early trading and closed the trading limit at the end of the day.

When futures opened on the 11th night, Zheng coal rose more than 6%, while coking coal, iron ore and coke also rose more than 2%. Subsequently, the major varieties continued to expand, by the end of the night trading, the main thermal coal contract increased to 10.85%, once again close to the limit; coking coal main contract also increased by more than 5%.

In the evening of the same day, Xinhua News Agency announced that Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council presided over a meeting of the National Energy Commission on the 9th to deploy the work of energy reform and development, and to consider the plan of the modern energy system and the implementation plan of the energy carbon peak during the 14th five-year Plan. Li Keqiang said: it is necessary to make an in-depth demonstration and put forward a step-by-step timetable and roadmap for carbon peak. Adhere to a game of chess throughout the country, do not snatch away, proceed from reality, correct "across-the-board" electricity production restrictions or "sports" carbon reduction in some places, so as to ensure that people in the north are warm and safe through the winter. We will increase the proportion of clean energy, rely more on market mechanisms to promote energy conservation, emission reduction and carbon reduction, and enhance the capacity for green development.

In addition to thermal coal, due to the sharp rise in crude oil, WTI oil prices broke through the $80 mark, domestic chemical products rose across the board, methanol, PVC and other strong limit. Some institutions have pointed out that due to the high global temperature in summer, which consumes a lot of energy, La Nina will probably be ushered in this winter, pushing up the prices of related commodities such as agricultural products and energy.

The spot broke through the 2000 yuan mark, and thermal coal futures rose strongly.

No one thought that it was the traditional off-season, but coal was particularly scarce and there was a global shortage of coal, which suddenly became the "king", leading a large number of commodities to soar.

Since August, the policy of "guaranteed supply" to increase production has begun to fall to the ground, but the tight pattern of coal supply has continued, and the increase in coal prices further expanded in the third quarter. During the National Day holiday, policy documents on increasing production and ensuring supply were issued in Ordos, Shanxi and Yulin, Shaanxi Province; on October 8, after the opening of the festival, thermal coal fell nearly 9%.

Liu Dongfeng, chief black researcher of Ping an Futures Trading Department, told brokerage Chinese reporters that the port spot rose sharply on October 9, breaking through 2000 yuan / ton, and the spot range of futures discount was too large. Thermal coal futures rose strongly on October 11.

Liu Dongfeng pointed out that since late September, the guarantee and supply policy has focused on the use of coal by the long Association and power plants, and the policy has guided coal mines and power plants to expand the coverage of "long Association coal". In the fourth quarter of this year, the supply of "Changsha coal" in the three provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was about 145 million tons, undertaking the task of ensuring supply of 53 million tons, 39 million tons and 53 million tons respectively. Thermal coal futures as the price target of coal in the coastal market along the Yangtze River, the coverage of "Changxie Coal" has been expanded, which greatly increases the price elasticity of thermal coal futures.

After the National Day holiday, with the daily output of 2.3 million tons per day in Ordos and the absolute low inventory of power plants gradually increasing, the spot stock of 5500 kcal in the port surpassed 2000, and the price was 2200 on October 11. Thermal coal futures 2001 contract due to the discount range is too large, futures prices are in the passive spot stage, the short-term is still strong. "

Cai Yongzheng, director of the Fushi data Research Institute, which focuses on black industry chain research, also told reporters that overall, it is still the market expectation brought about by the tight supply of coal, and this tension is global. During the National Day rainstorm in Shanxi, a large number of coal mining enterprises are closed, and the shortage of coal supply is expected to continue.

The contract price of thermal coal is at an all-time high. Many people ignore the impact of extreme weather and floods on supply in Shanxi. Hong Hao, managing director of BoCom International, said.

According to the reporter's statistics, since Aug. 17, thermal coal futures have broken through 1000 yuan / ton all the way, but closed on the 11th to break through 1400 yuan / mark, an increase of 86% in less than two months.

Zu Guopeng, chief analyst of CITIC energy and chemical industry, pointed out that at present, there are great differences in the judgment of the market on the additional additional capacity in the main coal producing areas, but because some of the new capacity has been released, we estimate that the effective new capacity in the fourth quarter is about 1-120 million tons annualized, corresponding to Q4 month-on-month new production of about 3000-40 million tons, even with the increase in the seasonal expansion of stock capacity. It is estimated that there is still a supply gap of 20 million tons in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to reverse the tight supply pattern during the year. Under this expectation, coal prices are expected to rise to some extent in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter.

"in the fourth quarter, the pressure of coal supply and demand is still large. The guarantee and supply policy has gradually landed, and the pace of landing has obviously accelerated since late September, and will gradually release increments in the fourth quarter; however, safety supervision and eco-environmental constraints still exist, and the growth rate of supply is still variable. On the whole, the challenge of "meeting the peak and spending the winter" still exists. With the gradual landing of the guarantee and supply policy, the demand for heating electricity can be guaranteed, but the overall tension between supply and demand needs to be alleviated slowly. Liu Dongfeng also said.

Oil prices break through the $80 mark, chemicals soar across the board

In addition to the global coal shortage, the "king of commodities" crude oil has also soared in anticipation of tight supply and economic recovery. You know, in April last year, oil prices were so negative that they even blocked pipelines, and there were so many cruise ships loaded at sea that there was no place to store them.

On Oct. 8, WTI oil prices broke through the $80 mark for the first time in seven years; on Oct. 11, WTI oil prices surged more than 3% to $82, once again breaking the previous high. It is worth noting that international oil prices have risen for seven weeks in a row. With the superimposed shortage of coal, the energy crisis sweeping the world is adding to the wintering plight of the northern hemisphere.

Driven by the surge in crude oil, on October 11th, domestic chemical products rose sharply, methanol, PVC and other strong limit, LPG, PTA, EG and so on rose sharply. Up to now, the prices of PVC, PP, EB, plastics and other chemicals are all above 10000 yuan, setting a new record. Even the price of methanol broke through the 4000 yuan mark, the highest since listing. A year ago, the price of methanol was less than 2000 yuan.

Commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank said: "given the current strong demand and possibly driven by the shift of natural gas buyers to oil, coupled with OPEC+ production restrictions, the oil market will remain tight until the end of the year. "

Mingming, chief analyst of CITIC FICC, also pointed out that the market is increasingly worried about the global energy crisis. Specifically, in the context of the transformation of the global energy structure, the energy crisis mainly focuses on traditional fossil energy, including oil, natural gas and coal. Rising prices of energy products have caused global power shortages and pressure on industrial production, while high electricity prices and shortages of natural gas and gasoline have also disrupted residents' lives. It is expected that the high prices of major energy products will be difficult to change in the short term, a new round of global inflation is coming, and the inflationary pressure in China can not be ignored.

Abnormal weather may aggravate commodity volatility

It is worth noting that while there is a shortage of resource goods, weather changes may aggravate the volatility of commodity prices. Cai Yongzheng pointed out that the high global temperature in summer consumes a lot of energy, and there is a good chance that La Nina will be ushered in this winter.

China International Capital Corporation also posted that in August 2021, NOAA announced that there were signs of a repeat of La Nina, and that another reversal of the climate was imminent. The abnormal phenomena of global precipitation and temperature caused by La Nina weather have different effects on different industries / industries. Specifically, on the one hand, the deviation of precipitation and temperature from the normal value will directly have a certain impact on global agricultural production, while the occurrence of La Nina phenomenon will often lead to large fluctuations in market sentiment, which will promote the irrational rise of agricultural prices.

On the other hand, the cold weather caused by La Nina climate may be good for related industrial chains such as energy, coal, textile and clothing chemical fiber, urea chemical fertilizer, etc., aggravating market concerns about energy shortage in winter and pushing up the prices of commodities such as natural gas, heating oil, coal, cotton textiles and chemical fertilizers to a certain extent.

In terms of agricultural products, the market has begun to speculate on weather forecasts. Oil varieties such as palm oil and soybean oil have risen all the way since July this year, and are even more ferocious after the festival. at present, palm oil is 9600 yuan, only one step away from the 10,000 yuan mark.