Third-quarter revenue reached a record $4.314 billion, an increase of 125.3% year-on-year. In 2021, the company expects airline revenue to be $4.314 billion, or about 27.795 billion yuan. Affected by serious congestion in the airline network, the estimated freight volume completed in the third quarter was 181.01 TEU, down 7.2 per cent from the same period last year; the average per-box revenue was $2383.1, an increase of 142.7 per cent over the same period last year. The total freight volume completed in the first three quarters was 573.7 TEU, up 9.6 per cent from the same period last year; the average per-box revenue was $1882.5, up 95.6 per cent from the same period last year.
There is a view in the market: the collection and transportation plate is the "target for the benefit of the epidemic".
The relationship between the improvement of epidemic situation and the efficiency of supply chain is weakened. The epidemic is only part of the reason for the decline in the efficiency of the supply chain, and even if the epidemic is over, the problem of labor shortage in the supply chain will still be difficult to solve. Since 2021, the collection of goods has far exceeded the carrying capacity of the terminal, and the backlog of a large number of goods has reduced the operational efficiency of the terminal; at the same time, the shortage of labor such as truck drivers, the efficiency of the inland supply chain is also low, and the supply chain contradiction is difficult to be alleviated in the short term.
The second point of view in the market is that the "double control and double limit" measure will reduce the subsequent consignment volume.
Most of the collection and transportation commodities are light industrial products with low energy consumption, and the pressure of "double control of energy consumption" faced by relevant enterprises in the future is relatively small, and the impact on production capacity is very limited; while the relevant departments concerned have made efforts to solve the problem of power supply shortage, and the subsequent impact on production-oriented enterprises will also gradually weaken.
In the short term, power restriction and production restriction or weakening the shipping peak will help to alleviate port congestion and schedule delay, and restrain the irrational rise of ship rent. In the medium to long term, the US retail inventory-to-sales ratio is still historically low, overseas demand is still strong, the status of made in China is irreplaceable, and some production orders may be delayed.
The third point of view in the market is that the shipping price of containers on the American line is halved.
Judging from the actual quotation data of the shipping company, the container shipping price of the main shipping company shows no sign of falling sharply, the overall price remains high and runs steadily, and the freight rate of the American line is maintained at 7000 US dollars per large counter. The price gap between the shipping company and the freight forwarder is about double, the quotation of the shipping company does not reflect the real supply and demand of the market, and the first and second price system of the American market will be rebalanced.
Continue to maintain Orient Overseas's "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $407. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the corresponding PE is only 1.71,2.21,2.54 times, and the EV/EBITDA is only 0.85,0.56,0.19 times.