According to the media on Saturday (10月9The latest report, local time10月8The United States of America9Monthly employment data are "fresh", according to statistics.Although the unemployment rate in the country has fallen to4.8%Lower than the market forecast5.1%But the scale of non-farm payrolls has only increased19.4Ten thousand people, far below market expectations.50Ten thousand people, the worst so far this year.So far, the non-farm payrolls data in the United States have been continuous.2The number of months was lower than expected.

You know, this report is about the direction of the Fed's next monetary policy plan. This year9At the Fed's monetary policy meeting in April, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said若9The employment data for the month is "good" and will satisfy this year.11Conditions for curtailing bond purchases began in April.Does that mean that the employment data are notIdealWill the Fed, the biggest buyer of US debt, slow down and scale back its bond purchases?

I'm afraid the truth is not that simple. Most economists in the market think that the Fed will look for it in all aspects."excuse"Give way from this year11Reduce monthly purchases at the beginning of the month1200The plan for a billion US dollars of US debt has been carried out smoothly.

For example, the Federal Reserve will put9The impact of the epidemic was blamed for the downturn in employment data in March. In addition, the United States7、8The monthly employment data has been revised upwards, and the report as a whole is positive.Us President Joe Biden also contributed to the employment report."backing up" means that the country's recovery is moving forward.

In fact, the Fed has made a lot of preparations to scale back its bond-buying program.I'm afraid it's not that easy to postpone it. Moreover, the news that the Fed has scaled back its bond purchases has been digested by the market, and people now want to know more about the timing of interest rate hikes in the United States.

Most importantly, the current inflation situation in the United States is so serious that the energy crisis in Europe seems to be on the verge of spreading to the country. According to statistics, from this year10月4The week from the beginning of the dayAverage gasoline in the countryThe "value" has climbed to3.22dollar/Gallons, close to the United States7年（2014年10Since the beginning of this month, it is the highest since.

Some finance professors believe that high inflation may also prompt the Fed to start buying fewer bonds more quickly. In this way, despite the cold employment data, it may not be able to stop the Fed from curtailing its bond purchases, or even faster.

Text | Zhang Jianlin title | Zeng Yunzi Tu | Lu Wenxiang Review | Lu Shuoyi