In September last year, Tesla, Inc. put together the annual shareholders' meeting with Battery Day because of the epidemic, during which he released a number of contents about reducing battery costs, increasing efficiency and increasing production. 4680 batteries, one-piece die-cast body and CTC battery pack were also unveiled at the press conference.

This year, Cybertruck and Roadster 2 jumped again, FSD Beta did not officially push, and the "in-progress" status of big projects seems to continue.

A year later, Tesla, Inc. held a more "traditional" shareholders' meeting on October 7, US time. With this meeting, we can take a look at the progress of the planned things.

01 under growth

The first half after the shareholders' meeting officially began was a summary of the recent situation, with the main contents of delivery data, factory capacity and planning. These data are the most direct reflection of Tesla, Inc. 's growth, and it is also a window for everyone to predict Tesla, Inc. 's future growth.

Car sales that break through the attributive

Since September last year, Tesla, Inc. has delivered more than 800000 vehicles in the past 12 months, and Tesla, Inc. has delivered more than 240000 vehicles at the just-concluded 2021Q3.

If calculated on the basis of every five quarters, Tesla, Inc. achieved a compound growth rate of 71% in delivery between 2016Q4 and 2021Q3.

As Tesla, Inc. 's first volume model, the Model 3 has surpassed many established products such as the BMW 3-Series and Mercedes-Benz C-Class to become the best-selling single luxury model in the global market. from the beginning of delivery to achieving this goal, the Model 3 took less than four years.

In other words, the sales performance of the Model 3 in the global market proves that as long as the product is strong enough, electric cars can sell better than the best fuel cars in their class.

But this is not over. If you know more about Model Y, you should know that Tesla, Inc. 's sales expectation for this car is to exceed the total sales of Model S + Model X + Model 3.

The corresponding goal is to remove all attributives and make Model Y the single model with the highest sales of all vehicle categories in the world.

There may be no specific concept of "the world's highest-selling single model". At present, the world's highest-selling single model is the Toyota Corolla, which has sold an average of 1.194 million vehicles a year in the last four years.

In fact, Musk mentioned this in Tesla, Inc. 's earnings report in the first quarter of this year, and later made a further prediction on Twitter, saying that the Model Y may achieve this goal in 2023, while the Model Y will become the single model with the highest revenue in the world in 2022.

Why such a goal will be achieved by 2023 is related to Tesla, Inc. 's current production capacity and plant planning.

Four factories that keep pace with the times

Tesla, Inc. currently has four factories, namely:

• Fremont, California

• Shanghai Factory, China

• Austin, Texas factory

• Berlin factory, Germany

Among them, the Fremont factory has the most complete product line as the "old factory". At present, all the Tesla, Inc. "Sexy" models on sale are produced. In the later three "new factories", the Shanghai factory produces Model 3gray Y, the Berlin factory only produces Model Y, and the Austin factory produces Cybertruck and Model Y.

It can be seen that all four factories will produce Model Y, but the problem to be noted is that the only factories currently in production are the Fremont plant and the Shanghai plant.

Although the Texas plant and the Berlin plant are close to being put into use, another problem that can not be ignored is the slope of the factory's production capacity.

The Shanghai factory can be said to be a typical example of "speed". It is impressive both in terms of the speed of plant construction and the rate of capacity increase, but even the Shanghai plant takes more than a year from commissioning to reaching its planned capacity.

Similarly, it will take more than a year for the Texas and Berlin plants to climb the slope, mass production in 2022 and planned capacity in 2023, when Model Y will have enough capacity to hit the Carola throne.

Musk also made a further supplement to the content about the factory at the shareholders' meeting, believing that it is necessary to localize the production of volume models where feasible, so that delivery is faster and logistics costs are lower.

When the Shanghai factory hit its delivery targets in the third quarter, it faced not only the capacity pressure caused by a shortage of spare parts, but also a shortage of cargo ships carrying cars to Europe, and it was also time-consuming to take the Panama Canal. These are all uncertainties that exports will face.

During the question and answer session, someone also asked Tesla, Inc. if he had any idea of building a new factory. Musk said that at present, there are no plans for new construction outside Tesla, Inc. 's four factories, but the four major factories may be optimized and expanded in due course during this period of time. For example, the capacity of the Fremont plant and the Nevada battery plant will expand by 50% later. The new plant may be considered in 2022, and if so, site planning should begin next year.

In fact, there is a lot of information in this answer, which can be inferred by combining the local production of volume models and the plan to build a new factory for the time being:

• Tesla, Inc. 's main market is still around China, the United States and Europe, while the volume or growth rate of other regions such as India is not worth investing in local factories.

• In addition to the Model 3CYY, other models such as Cybertruck assume a large enough export order, and Tesla, Inc. may also set up a production line in a factory in Berlin or Shanghai.

• Combined with the current delivery situation, the Fremont plant capacity expansion is likely to involve the Model Splink X model.

After talking about the factory, Musk talked about the mass production of models through the planning of the factory.

About skipping tickets and new cars.

The first is the bad news that has been announced. Cybertruck's mass production plan has been delayed, mass production will begin in 2022 and mass delivery will begin in 2023. Then there are lower priority Semi and Roadster 2, and mass production nodes are "expected" to be achieved in 2023.

Musk gave a more detailed explanation on these models that have skipped tickets many times this time. All the models released by Tesla, Inc. are confirmed to be mass-produced, but this round of parts shortage in the automobile industry involves a wide range of areas, far more than just car chips.

Musk said that Tesla, Inc. in battery procurement for those battery suppliers who can provide a reasonable price, the order is already "I will buy as much as you produce."

However, models like Semi have a great demand for batteries and chips, and there is no guarantee of production capacity under the premise of lack of parts, so there is no practical significance to mass-produce these cars.

When it comes to battery capacity, Musk also added the progress of mass production of 4680 cells, which are still unable to achieve mass production this year. At present, a 4680 production line with a planned capacity of 10 GWh has been built next to the Fremont plant, which is less than a mile from the Fremont plant. 10 GWh capacity is enough before the Texas plant mass-produces Model Y.

During the question and answer session, Musk was also asked if there was any news about the long-rumored "Model 2". Musk was a little upset when he saw this question, saying that "Model 2 is not a car" and Model 3 were called Model 3 because they were supposed to use the name "Model E" and were registered by Ford.

For this answer, Musk does not mean that the Model 2 will not be a car product, nor does it mean that Tesla, Inc. cancelled the $25000 cheap model, but that the car will not be called Model 2.

The "S" of Model S means the car "Sedan", the "X" of Model X stands for the crossover "Crossover", and the following Model E and Y are used to form the product line name of "Sexy".

For the $25000 new car, the naming logic should be similar, and the names you can think of can also be left in the comments section.

02 future Tesla, Inc.

The topic of Tesla, Inc. 's future business and operation strategy in the shareholders' meeting is also worthy of attention, which may include non-explicit growth expectations that investors are more concerned about, some of which are not specific, but have a certain forward-looking significance.

Autopilot will be open to the public for authorization.

This year's AI Day has made many people in the science and technology circle pay attention to Tesla, Inc. 's attainments in self-developed chips and AI technology, which serve Tesla, Inc. Autopilot on the product side. One of the unexpected things at the shareholders' meeting was Musk's announcement that Tesla, Inc. would open autopilot technology to the public and grant it to companies with needs and wishes.

As for the reason for this decision, Musk believes that self-driving is a technology that can improve driving safety and save lives, so Tesla, Inc. will not take it for himself.

It is admirable that Musk has such a pattern, but at present, it is not so easy to implement the authorized autopilot business if you want to land.

On the one hand, because Tesla, Inc. has his own special sensing hardware, computing chips and software system in the field of self-driving, if other enterprises want to use it, it is not only as simple as buying software licenses, it may also be necessary to purchase supporting hardware and make targeted hardware design changes in the pre-installation stage of the vehicle.

In addition, the improvement of software capability also requires data collection and training. Who owns this part of the data? it is also doubtful whether the training can be realized without Tesla, Inc. server.

Energy storage business worthy of attention

During the question and answer session, someone suggested adding Tesla, Inc. 's energy storage business to the quarterly financial report, and Musk said Tesla, Inc. would do this next year.

When talking about the topic of energy storage business, Musk once again showed that he is optimistic about photovoltaic + energy storage business. In Tesla, Inc. 's sustainable energy system, electricity photovoltaic and energy storage are very important links. Solar energy is an inexhaustible source of energy. battery energy storage can cut peaks and fill valleys. Musk says it takes only a square mile of energy storage batteries to meet the nation's nighttime power needs.

With regard to the growth of this business, Musk said that the parts of the automobile industry this year have also affected the energy storage business, because many of the parts used by Tesla, Inc. on the energy storage side are the same as the car end, so Tesla, Inc. allocated the limited resources to the automobile business on the premise of a shortage of parts this year. After the capacity of the subsequent supply improvement energy storage business is liberated, there will be a great leap forward in growth.

Write at the end

There was an impressive figure in last year's battery day-Tesla, Inc. 's battery capacity demand will reach 3 TWh by 2030, nearly half of which will be used for energy storage. At the same time, Musk predicts that Tesla, Inc. 's global delivery volume will reach 20 million units by 2030, which already looks crazy, but what is even crazier is Musk's forecast of global electric sales of 30 million units in 2030.

In other words, Musk believes that in 2030, Tesla, Inc. will be able to occupy 2Universe 3 of the global electric car market.

After achieving many seemingly impossible goals in the outside world, the incredible goals of Tesla, Inc. and Musk no longer seem strange. The car company, which has annual sales of nearly one million units, is still breaking many traditional rules, such as an increase in gross profit margin while bicycle sales prices continue to decline due to hot sales of volume models.

And when asked about the purpose of holding the AI Day, Musk said that it was to attract the world's top AI talent, in fact, Tesla, Inc. did get what he wanted. Tesla, Inc. received more than a hundred times the resume after the AI Day.

But when it comes to the goal of 20 million, Musk doesn't seem to be so excited that he even said that based on the average life of a car of 20 years, there will be a lot of fuel cars in stock by 2030. it will take more than 30 years to replace all the global stock of cars with electric cars, and if the batteries can be fully recycled at that time, there will be no need for mining to make batteries.

When asked about share splitting and shareholder dividends, Musk replied that he did not hesitate to "NO", because Tesla, Inc. is far from reaching its peak.

This kind of thinking is really not like a car company.