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外盘头条:金融教授警告美联储或比预期更快缩减购债

Outer disk headline: finance professor warns the Fed may scale back bond purchases sooner than expected

新浪美股 ·  Oct 8, 2021 05:32

Global financial media last night and this morningThe main headlines of common concern are:

1. The market firmly believes that the Fed will reduce its size in November unless the employment data is much worse than expected.

2. Wharton School Professor: the Fed may scale back its bond purchases sooner than expected, which could scare the market.

3. The risk of JPMorgan's stock and debt falling together will rise due to inflation, which may last until 2022.

4. IMF urges governments to make financial plans to control the debt of the epidemic.

JPMorgan Chase & Co, a strategist who is eyeing the rise of energy stocks, said that the rise is not over yet.

6. IBM: all American employees must be vaccinated against COVID-19 by December 8th or face unpaid suspension

The market firmly believes that the Fed will cut its size in November unless the employment data is much worse than expected.

20万。

If U.S. non-farm payrolls are the same, investors will question the health of the economy and lower Treasury yields in the near term, according to the eight strategists surveyed. It could also lead to higher bets on the Fed delaying or slowing down the pace of downsizing. However, economists' median estimate for non-farm payrolls is 500000, more than double that figure.

While most investors think there is little doubt that the Fed will reduce its size, it will have to wait for the Fed to make clear the timing and speed of the reduction. Supply chain bottlenecks and the weight reduction expected to start in November have led to inflationary pressures that have led to a continuation of the third-quarter rally in US bond yields. That means the threshold for Treasuries to fall back after the employment data is released is high.

"if the figure is 300000 higher or lower than widely expected, it may cause a reaction to US Treasuries."French Societe GeneraleSaid Subadra Rajappa, head of US interest rate strategy at the bank.

Wharton School Professor: the Fed may scale back its bond purchases sooner than expected, which could scare the market.

Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at Wharton, said the Fed could be forced to scale back its bond purchases faster than expected because of soaring inflation, which could spook the market.

"I think inflation will be much higher than the Fed thinks," Siegel said on Thursday. I think the Fed will be under pressure not only to start to scale back-which they will announce-but also faster than the market thought. This is where I think the market will be a little surprised and challenged. "

To prop up the economy during the COVID-19 epidemic, the Fed bought $120 billion a month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed said at its September policy meeting that it would begin to withdraw some of its support.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said policymakers expected bond purchases during the outbreak to end around mid-2022.

Siegel believes that in the face of rising price pressures, the Fed may be forced to act more aggressively. He expects the US consumer price index, to be released next week, to rise faster than expected in September.

JPMorgan Chase expects both stocks and debt to fall and the risk rises due to unexpected inflation that may last until 2022.

JPMorgan Chase & CoAnalysts say persistent inflation could trigger simultaneous falls in bonds and stocks, causing headaches for investors who use fixed-income securities to protect their portfolios from stock market falls.

The bond market sell-off in September coincided with a 4.8% drop in the s & p 500, a trend that hit multi-asset investors. JPMorgan Chase & CoA basket of risk parity funds tracked fell 3.6 per cent in the month.BlackrockThe target allocation fund of 60apt 40 fell 2.5%, the biggest one-month drop since march.

The pain may not be over yet.

JPMorgan Chase & Co strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and others pointed out in a recent report to clients that inflation unexpectedly could continue into 2022 as supply bottlenecks and commodity prices continue to rise.

IMF urges governments to develop fiscal plans to control epidemic debt

After taking unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures to combat the COVID-19 epidemic, governments should start planning to restore more sustainable budgets and formulate policies that win the trust of investors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its fiscal monitoring report on Thursday.

But IMF said that each country must determine the appropriate timing and pace of fiscal consolidation according to its own situation. The financial plan needs to take into account the development stage of the epidemic, the existing financial fragility, the risk of economic trauma, the pressure of an ageing population and development needs.

Paulo Mauro, deputy director of financial affairs at the IMF, said: "some countries are still raging epidemics, so the priority is still health emergencies." other countries where economic activity is picking up "can start to consider and gradually reduce the level of financial support to the economy."

JPMorgan Chase & Co, a strategist who is eyeing the rise of energy stocks, said that the rise is not over yet.

In early 2021, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas was one of the rare bulls in energy stocks. After these stocks soared nearly 50%,JPMorgan Chase & CoStrategists say there is room for further gains.

Oil and gas producers are among the best performers in the S & P 500 this year, with both Devon Energy Corp. And Marathon Oil Corp. More than doubling. But bearish bets on energy stocks are also rising as investors remain sceptical about such stocks. Lakos-Bujas and his team point out that this disgust contrasts sharply with the improved outlook for the industry, which will lead to higher valuations and share prices catching up with fundamentals.

"We expect the industry to be reassessed as companies issue strong results and improve guidance, and reiterate their focus on shareholder return on capital rather than unprofitable market share growth," the strategists wrote in a client report on Thursday. "at a time when most assets are generally revalued due to falling interest rates and abundant liquidity, energy stocks still have several years of non-linear earnings growth potential. And the current valuation is attractive. "

IBM: all American employees must be vaccinated against COVID-19 by December 8th or face unpaid suspension

IBMAmerican workers were told this week that they must complete COVID-19 's vaccination by December 8 or face unpaid suspension.

IBMTell employees that as a government contractor, the company must comply with President Joe Biden's COVID-19 vaccine rules for federal contractors.

"as a federal contractor, IBM must comply with this rule," the company said in a memo sent to employees this week. In view of this requirement and the policies of many of our customers and partners, as well as the easy availability of COVID-19 vaccination nationwide, we will now require all IBM US employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by December 8, 2021 in order to continue to work at IBM. "

Unlike some companies such as United Airlines, IBM's COVID-19 vaccination policy does not include firing unvaccinated employees. But those who refuse to be vaccinated will not be paid after December 8 until they have been vaccinated.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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