Original title: 22 investment banks look ahead: us non-farmers may pry open the door for Fed interest rate hikes in September
The change in non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate after the September quarterly adjustment in the United States will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, including Wednesday.
Morgan Stanley
22 large investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, published their forecasts for the data, as shown below.
The forecasts of 22 large investment banks show that there is a large gap in the expectations of major investment banks for non-farm payrolls growth in September.
In the United States, after the quarterly adjustment in September, the growth of non-farm payrolls is expected to be between 250000 and 700000, the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8%, 5.3%, and the average annual rate of hourly wage growth is expected to be 4.5%, 4.7%.
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Investors are waiting for the September non-farm payrolls report, which could help provide clues as to whether the Fed will start scaling back its asset purchases before the end of the year. John Doyle, vice president of trading at Tempus, a foreign exchange payments company, said the non-farm payrolls data had been a factor driving the market. The poor performance of the data will provide dovish support for the Fed, but if there is a surprise, coupled with the energy crisis fuelling inflation, it will increase the pressure on the Fed to start scaling back its bond purchases and help the dollar.
According to a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed will almost certainly announce a reduction plan in November. One condition that has not yet been met is "substantial progress" in the improvement of the job market. This week's non-farm payrolls report will be a decisive data point. Economic research predicts that this week's report will show that non-farm payrolls have increased by more than 750000. With more than 10 million job vacancies, even a small number of jobless insurance recipients rejoining the labour market could provide a significant boost to employment data for September and the coming months.
JPMorgan Chase & CoUs non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 575000 in September, with the unemployment rate falling to 5 per cent. The higher-than-consensus forecast is driven by an expected rebound in employment in the leisure and hotel sectors.
Holland InternationalGroup economists believe that the main event this week is the US non-farm payrolls data in September and will finalize the Fed's scheduled shrinking resolution, and a strong non-farm should order the Fed to scale back its bond purchases later this year and raise interest rates in 2022 to support the dollar, which is technically about to usher in a major breakthrough, a trend that will be reinforced by a strong US non-farm report.
Bank of America CorporationStrategists Ben Randol, Adarsh Sinha and Janice Xue believe that market expectations of a Fed rate hike still lag behind the median bitmap of 2024. As long as this week's US non-farm payrolls report "avoids substantial weakness", it should pave the way for code reduction to begin next month. While downsizing and interest rate hikes are still different aspects of monetary policy normalisation, confirming the undervaluation still reduces the reason for foreign exchange markets to doubt the Fed's resolve. Rising inflationary pressures are also set to push the central bank towards policy normalisation, with a bargain-hunting mentality that has boosted stocks so far in 2021, but rising volatility and the debt ceiling battle could lead to a further correction in risky assets. While the stabilisation of risk markets may trigger a further correction in the dollar in the short term, medium-term drivers continue to support the dollar.