Author | Amano

Data support | big data (www.gogudata.com)

Hello, everyone. I'm Amano!

Although everyone is still quietly in the joy of the National Day, and some friends are still on the way to travel, Hong Kong stocks have quietly opened.

Today's Hong Kong stock market conveys several messages, which we should pay attention to.

一、

First of all, the medical sector, the Hong Kong stock market as a whole fell sharply, of the 187 medical-related stocks, only 44 stocks rose. Among them, COVID-19 prevention and control related industry chain is the hardest hit area today, mainly because Merck & Co Inc's oral COVID-19 treatment drug has achieved positive results.

Merck & Co Inc announced on Oct. 1 that the oral anti-novel coronavirus drug monopivir (Molnupiravir), developed with partner Ridgeback Biotherapy Company, can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 50%. Because the result was better than expected, the study was terminated early, and Merck & Co Inc was ready to submit an application for listing to FDA immediately, bringing new treatment options to COVID-19 patients.

At present, Hong Kong stocks related to the COVID-19 prevention and control industry chain are mainly divided into three categories: first, COVID-19 Vaccine Company, including CANSINOBIO and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical; second, COVID-19 Therapeutic Pharmaceutical Company, which mainly develops the pharmaceutical industry and Tengsheng Pharma; and third, COVID-19 vaccine and drug-related CXO targets, mainly including Wuxi Biologics and Wuxi Apptec. In theory, these plates are not affected the same.

For COVID-19 vaccine, in the process of fighting the epidemic, vaccines and drugs play a very important role, and the two can not replace each other. This is not to say that there is no need to develop drugs if there is a vaccine, or that there is no need for a vaccine when the drug comes out. The combination of prevention and treatment of "COVID-19 vaccine + specific drugs" can really reduce the impact of the virus on normal social life, and the development and application of therapeutic drugs should be divided into stages according to the development of COVID-19 's disease course.

Both CANSINOBIO and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical fell by about 20% today, after CANSINOBIO's A shares fell 57.6% from their peak on June 23, and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical's A shares fell 42.95% from their peak on August 5. The sharp drop today is not entirely due to the influence of Merck & Co Inc's small molecular drugs, but more importantly because the global COVID-19 vaccine capacity has been overproduced, and Sanofi's decision a few days ago can peep into the severity of the vaccine competition pattern.

Sanofi decided not to conduct phase III trials of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine on Sept. 28, although Sanofi's phase 2 clinical trial of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine showed positive results, and the neutralizing antibody titer of 91-100% vaccinated people increased four times after the second dose of the vaccine. However, considering that the market for mRNA COVID-19 vaccine has been saturated, there is not much prospect. Therefore Sanofi resolutely withdrew from the competition of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine market.

According to relevant statistics, as of September 23, 2021, the global cumulative dose of COVID-19 vaccine has reached 6.07 billion doses, and China has received more than 2.19 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine. In terms of the total planned production capacity of manufacturers that have entered the commercialization stage, the domestic dose will reach 80-8.5 billion doses in 2021, with a corresponding population of 42-4.5 billion people, and the global 2021 will reach 158-16.5 billion doses, with a corresponding population of 83.5-8.75 billion people.

At present, the global population is about 7.5 billion, so whether domestic or global, the vaccine production capacity entering the commercial stage has exceeded the demand, and the competition pattern facing in the future is not optimistic. If the existing manufacturers in research have not grabbed the first wave of market dividends, it will be very difficult to have another opportunity. Watson Biology and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical have respectively obtained the rights and interests of COVID-19 's mRNA vaccine through foreign cooperation, which have not yet been approved to be listed on the market. Domestic policies may tilt towards Watson's domestic COVID-19 mRNA vaccine, and if sequential vaccination is launched in China in the future, there may be a last chance.

The commercialization of COVID-19 vaccine is progressing smoothly:

Source: Guotai Junan Securities

And COVID-19 treatment drugs, the mainstream on the market is neutralizing antibodies of large molecular drugs and small molecular oral drugs. Merck & Co Inc's new oral antiviral drug Molnupiravir has been successful in the third phase, which is known as COVID-19 's "oseltamivir" because of its better accessibility, lower cost and more convenient production.

Although the effect of neutralizing antibody is better, it needs intravenous injection, low accessibility, more expensive and difficult to produce on a large scale. Considering the cost, convenience and other factors, it is expected that small molecule COVID-19 will become one of the mainstream drugs in the future, and is expected to play an important role in the treatment of mild to moderate patients and post-exposure prevention and treatment.

Simply speculate, the final application situation may be vaccine prevention in advance, post-infection treatment, the developed countries mainly use neutralizing antibodies, other countries can use oral small molecular drugs.

COVID-19 treats medicine combing:

Source: COVID-19 's diagnosis and treatment plan (trial eighth edition), COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines, company announcement, Guosheng Securities Research Institute.

Domestic Tengsheng broad drug development is a neutralization antibody, and the development of the pharmaceutical industry is a small molecular oral drug, today the share prices of both are subject to a greater impact. At present, COVID-19 treatment drugs have been approved or authorized for emergency use of five products, far from overcapacity, COVID-19 treatment drugs in the future may still be able to enjoy a good market space.

Referring to the estimation of the market space of COVID-19 's therapeutic drugs by Guosheng Securities, the market space of COVID-19 's therapeutic drugs is expected to reach 66 billion US dollars in the coming year, and the potential output value increment of China's CDMO industry is about 1.6 billion US dollars.

In the middle of this, the market of the small molecular drug industry chain may be worth looking forward to than the neutralizing antibody. Accordingly, Wuxi Apptec is stronger than Wuxi Biologics today perhaps for this reason. However, in the long run, Wuxi Biologics's non-COVID-19 order is very sufficient, the investment value can not be ignored, and today the market has overreacted. Tianyu shares, as an important supplier of raw materials for Merck & Co Inc, is also expected to usher in a large number of related orders.

二、

As opposed to anti-novel coronavirus drugs, the beneficiary plate of the epidemic fell sharply, while the plate damaged by the epidemic rose sharply. For example, shipping has plummeted and aviation has risen sharply. I think we should pay attention to this direction. Although it is possible that the pace of opening up the world will not open immediately in the short term, it will at least give everyone a glimmer of hope.

三、

Today, the power sector is also a collective decline, it seems that there is no shortage of electricity.

According to news, the Russian state-run power company InterRAO said on Friday that it would double the power supply to China in October to help China solve the problem of power shortage. Prior to this, Russia's Sino-Russian power converter station in Heihe City, Heilongjiang Province also agreed to increase power supply to China, increasing the number of full-time operation hours from 5 hours to 16 hours.

Although Russia's electricity may not be able to help us solve practical problems, especially now that power shortage is common across the country, buying electricity from abroad may break everyone's traditional framework for electric power. in addition, a special meeting on power supply was held before the National Day, and the situation is not insurmountable. Electricity industry is the infrastructure of social operation, it is difficult to have excess profits, price increases are expected to be small losses or small profits, this has been mentioned before.

四、

Fertilizer stocks rose sharply, becoming one of the few bright spots in a weak market, mainly due to the rise in prices. China Petrochemical soared 14%, Sinochem nearly 6%, China Xinlian Fertilizer rose 3.77%, and Dacheng biochemical Technology rose 1.45%.

Chemical fertilizer industry high-profile bidding results in India on October 1st, India's RCF company received a total of 12 suppliers, 1.949 million tons of urea supplies. Its Middle East coast is 830000 tons, the west coast is 1.024 million tons, and FOB is 90,000 tons. The minimum freight price is US $665.5 per ton on the east coast and US $714 per ton on the west coast.

五、

China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is up nearly 30%, and Hengten.com is up more than 9%. Some media said in the morning that Hesheng Chuangzhan intends to acquire about 51 per cent of Evergrande Property Services's shares and acquire a controlling stake in Evergrande Property Services, which values Evergrande Property Services at more than HK $40 billion. In the afternoon, China Evergrande Group said that the company was waiting for the company to issue a transaction notice on matters to be disclosed; Evergrande Property Services said that the company was waiting for the company to issue an announcement on the basis of the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and mergers and constituting inside information and a possible full offer of shares in the company. This may be a sign that Evergrande's affairs are being resolved steadily.

The real estate sector is suppressed in many ways. On October 2, there is an article devoted to real estate opportunities, which has been mentioned many times before, and we can turn it over.

All right, let's nag so much today. Hong Kong stocks should still have some information tomorrow. We will share it at that time. Before the opening of the A-share market, we will sum up again. Happy holidays, everyone!

Gronghui statementThe views in this article all come from the original author and do not represent Gronghui's point of view and position. In particular, it is reminded that investment decisions should be based on independent thinking. The content of this article is for reference only, not as practical suggestions, and trading risks are at your own risk.