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OPEC年度报告:全球石油需求将持续增长直至2035年

OPEC Annual Report: Global oil demand will continue to grow until 2035

華爾街見聞 ·  Sep 28, 2021 22:56

OPEC expects oil demand to be 96.6 million b / d in 2021 and 101.6 million b / d by 2023, returning to 2019 levels and continuing to grow to 107.9 million b / d by 2035.

On the 28th, OPEC released the World Petroleum Outlook report.

In the report, OPEC said that global fuel demand will fully recover from the epidemic by 2023 and will continue to grow until it reaches a stable level by 2035.

OPEC stressed that while many developed economies are promoting the transition from fossil fuels to low-emission energy, global demand for oil and gas is expected to continue for several years.

OPEC expects oil demand to be 96.6 million b / d in 2021 and 101.6 million b / d by 2023, returning to 2019 levels and continuing to grow to 107.9 million b / d by 2035. These forecasts are virtually unchanged from last year's report.

It says most of the new oil demand growth over the next two decades will come from developing countries, which will grow by as much as 52 per cent.

With regard to the above forecasts, Bloomberg said that this means that it is not likely that the 26th United Nations Climate change Conference to be held in Glasgow, UK, will decide to reduce fossil fuel use quickly.

The World Oil Outlook acknowledges that renewable energy is the fastest growing source of energy and says the overall share of wind and solar energy in the global energy market will quadruple. In addition, renewable energy will meet about 10 per cent of global energy needs by 2045, up from 2.5 per cent today.

In addition, electric vehicles are expected to account for 20% of the world's cars by 2045, according to the report.

The report also said OPEC's market share would increase as production from other large producers, including the United States, fell.

OPEC expects non-OPEC supply to reach "stability and peak" by the end of the 2020s. By 2045, US oil production is expected to be 1.5 million barrels per day lower than in 2019.

Its total supply of crude oil and condensate will climb from 30.7 million barrels a day last year to 42.7 million barrels a day in 2045. By 2045, its share of the world oil market will expand from the current 33% to 39%. However, the organization did not make a separate forecast for its crude oil production.

In addition, its members are expected to account for 39 per cent of global crude oil consumption by 2045, up from 33 per cent today. The group said it expected the Middle East, dominated by OPEC members, to account for 57 per cent of global crude oil exports by 2045, up from 48 per cent in 2019.

Neil Atkinson, independent energy consultant and former head of oil market research at the International Energy Agency, said:

OPEC may be more important to the oil market than at any time in its history.

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