Main points of investment:
Build a 2x platform enterprise based on power electronics technology. Products start from the ring transformer, consumer extension "electronic transformer-LED drive power supply-lighting lamps" and other lighting products, industrial extension "industrial control transformer-photovoltaic inverter high-frequency transformer-photovoltaic grid-connected transformer" and other energy products, hatching communication power supply, vehicle power supply and other products. The net profit of returning home in the first three quarters is expected to be 1.77-185 million yuan, an increase of 458.79% to 484.03% over the same period last year.
High-frequency transformer is mainly equipped with series photovoltaic inverter, with Huawei, sunshine power products, while opening up new customers; boost transformer to achieve volume, industrial control transformer high growth. High-frequency transformers account for about 15% of the raw material cost of inverters, and we expect the market to grow from 2.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.1 billion yuan in 2025, and 22% of CAGR in five years. Grid access costs account for 6% of the initial investment, and we expect the photovoltaic grid-connected transformer market to grow from 4.2 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.5 billion yuan in 2025, a five-year CAGR14%. In 2020, photovoltaic products Huawei accounts for about 47% of customers, solar power accounts for about 46%, open up Jinlang technology, Gu Dewei, first Airlines and other new customers. Phase-shifting transformer is currently the only supplier of core components of BABA IDC Panama power supply.
The prosperity of the lighting industry has been steadily improved, with the layout of vehicle power supply and communication power supply. The output value of China's LED driver power supply has reached 15.7% in the past five years, and the growth of the company and the industry basically match. The fund-raising project was put into production, and lighting products increased by 43.87% in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period last year. Layout of vehicle power supply and communication power supply, hybrid VVC boost inductor to achieve a technological breakthrough, to achieve an exclusive fixed point, some varieties of vehicle power supply has been supplied in small quantities.
Continue the sales strategy of large customers and large orders, effectively reduce the rate of sales expenses. The rate of sales expenses dropped from 8.64% in 2015 to 4.03% in 2020, and dropped to 2.78% in the first half of this year.
Profit forecast: the revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 20.12,28.72 and 3.807 billion yuan, the net profit of 3-year CAGR39%; is 2.20,2.31 and 334 million yuan, and the 3-year CAGR 87% CAGR is 0.74,0.78,1.13 yuan per share, and the stock price before the corresponding EPS is 22,21,14 times. According to the partial valuation method, it is considered that in 2022, the PE is 41 times, the reasonable market value is 9.466 billion yuan, and the corresponding stock price is 31.93 yuan. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: systemic risk, intensified market competition, raw material price fluctuations.