share_log

警惕!石油股恐遭史上最大“死猫跳”,没什么能拯救石油行业

Watch out! Oil stocks may suffer the biggest "dead cat jump" in history, and nothing can save the oil industry.

匯通網 ·  Sep 27, 2021 09:54

Original title: beware! Oil stocks may suffer the biggest "dead cat jump" in history, and nothing can save the oil industry.

James Jampel, co-chief investment officer of HITE Hedge, who manages about $650 million in assets for clients, said the recent rebound in oil stocks was the biggest "dead cat jump" in history, referring to a situation in which share prices rebounded quickly after a long period of decline and then continued to fall.

Jampel also manages HITE Carbon Offset, a $187 million hedge fund whose core business is shorting fossil fuel assets. When the S & P 500 energy index, which includes Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp and ConocoPhillips, fell 35 per cent last year, the fund returned nearly 30 per cent. The fund fell about 9 per cent at the end of July, while the energy index rose 33 per cent over the same period.

In short, Jampel's view is that nothing can save the oil industry. With the advent of better technologies, the long-term demand for oil and gas will weaken and the pace of moving away from fossil fuels will accelerate. The stock market has begun to reflect this pessimistic outlook, with oil stocks trading at about half their five-year highs. It is difficult to make money in industries where production is falling and demand is falling.

So far, most of the largest oil companies have not managed to come up with transition strategies to help the planet limit temperature rise to a critical level of 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to media reports, European oil majors have made more ambitious commitments to cut carbon dioxide emissions than their US counterparts, but even so, they have failed to meet the required targets.

The vast majority of investment companies have adopted a transformational strategy of partnering with oil companies to force them to switch to cleaner business models. Some people think this is a waste of time and exclude oil from the portfolio. A small number of others are adding to the pressure on oil companies by deploying short-selling strategies that make money when the value of oil assets falls.

Jampel's decision to short fossil fuel stocks does not imply a long-term strategy around renewable energy assets. The reason we don't do this is that such funds are too volatile. If you look at the beginning of this year, new energy has been hit, while traditional energy has performed very well. Therefore, the way to reduce volatility does not mean that new energy sources will outperform traditional energy sources. We believe that the market as a whole will outperform traditional energy sources.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment