CITIC: strengthen the value allocation, layout the market in the fourth quarter

CITIC pointed out that style switching speed up, play down the short-term game, strengthen the value allocation, layout of the fourth quarter market.

Under the double control of energy consumption, power production restrictions are spread around, suppressing supply-side expectations; real estate credit reconstruction affects real estate construction investment, suppresses demand-side expectations, and the market's expectations for economic growth are revised down. Second, it is expected that the policy will respond quickly, the correction of power and production restrictions will be accelerated, and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will gradually appear, alleviating fundamental expectations that the domestic economy will perform better in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. Third, macro liquidity is still in a window of ample stage, with the release of local real estate credit risk, macro liquidity will be more relaxed, and it is expected that the comprehensive reserve reduction in the fourth quarter will hit the ground in October.

In terms of configuration, it is recommended to continue to grasp style switching, play down short-term games, strengthen value allocation, and lay out the subdivided areas of high-boom consumption and medicine in the value sector. and select the machinery, military industry, semiconductors and lithium electricity that are expected to exceed expectations in the manufacturing and technology sectors.

Guotai Junan Securities: hold shares and wait for October market

Since late July, the A-share market has seen both a significant rise in the index center and a trillion-dollar turnover for 46 consecutive trading days. At this point, new driving forces and paradigms are brewing:

1) domestic consumption, real estate and other data continue to weaken, and there is a consensus on the expected direction of the economic downturn, especially the pressure on the balance sheets of low-and middle-income groups, which will promote the transmission and spread of broad money to broad credit.

2) under the background of double control of energy consumption, although it is difficult to alleviate the squeeze of raw material prices on the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches in the short term, considering the boundary between stable growth and stable employment, the most prominent time of production restriction policy and the contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass.

3) overseas, although the pace of Taper of the Federal Reserve is gradually approaching, under the background of full expectations, it is difficult for US stocks to be significantly impacted. Considering the phase difference between domestic and foreign monetary policy, the domestic equity market is more endogenous. Superimposed on the rapprochement of Sino-US relations, the approach of the G20 summit, and the orderly handling of domestic risk events, the parent side gradually issued efforts and expected amendments, and suggested holding shares to celebrate the festival, waiting for the October rally in the golden autumn.

For industry configuration, it is recommended that prosperity should be given priority, and brokerages / new energy / old energy should be recommended. With the downside of risk-free interest rates, the secondary growth driven by wealth management, and the incremental contribution of the primary market, the benefit persistence of the securities industry is expected to exceed expectations. In addition, after the opening of the easing cycle, the real profits of the market rebounded slowly, and the direction of high prosperity is still scarce, so we should pursue the direction of tight balance between supply and demand in the three energy revolutions. To sum up, 1) the first is securities firms; 2) new energy with upward industrial trend: nuclear power, BIPV, photovoltaic; and 3) old energy with tight balance between supply and demand: iron and steel, coal, electrolytic aluminum and so on.

Haitong: the third wind of this year is coming, and the market style will be more balanced.

Haitong said that there have been two winds in the market this year. Now that the third wind has arrived, with the promotion of stable growth policies and positive signals in Sino-US relations, big financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries are expected to benefit. Drawing lessons from history, the peak of the bull market is characterized by public happiness, balanced waiting: hard technology, big finance, infrastructure-related manufacturing.

The first nine months of this year are almost over, during which there are two obvious changes in the market. Before the Spring Festival, the market maintained the inertia of last year's leading market. After the Spring Festival, the market adjusted to the end of March, and the main line of the market changed. The new energy vehicle sector led the rise from the end of March to July, the market adjusted again in July, and resource stocks have led the way since the end of July. These are the first two winds of this year.

Looking ahead, we believe that the third wind of the year is coming and the market style will be more balanced. The stable growth policy is expected to be further strengthened, and the real estate policy is expected to improve. The wind is blowing towards undervalued big finance and infrastructure-related manufacturing. A new round of rising momentum is on the way, and it is suggested that there should be a balanced allocation of hard technology, big finance, and infrastructure-related manufacturing.

China International Capital Corporation: the market style will still be tangled, the key point is to control the rhythm and stabilize the income, and a more balanced configuration is still applicable.

Taken together, China International Capital Corporation believes that the market is still in a "entanglement period" and the overall performance may be insipid. Structurally, it may still be difficult for the market to show a clear direction in the short term: the growth plate may need to control the rhythm after experiencing a continuous rise since April; the consumption-related sector is in a stable period after the previous decline, but the consumption data is weak or suppresses the overall performance; the raw material plate supported by production restrictions is also expected to be overdrawn in the early period, and the volume has fallen recently due to the influence of factors such as regulation and control expectations. Before the policy direction is clear, we believe that the market style may still be more tangled, and controlling the pace and stabilizing earnings may be the current focus.

Configuration suggestion: balanced configuration in the leading and backward sectors.

1) High prosperity, China's competitive or growing industrial chain: electric vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, science and technology hardware and software, semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. The valuation tends to be higher and the short-term fluctuation increases, so it is advisable to be patient and take advantage of the bargain.

2) Pan-consumer industry: stock selection from the bottom up combined with decline and valuation in the fields of daily necessities, home appliances, cars and spare parts, medicine and medical devices, light industry, etc.

3) some cycles with reasonable valuation, good pattern or growth: pay attention to the risk of overdraft of raw materials related to production restrictions, and focus on industries that benefit from stable growth expectations, such as cement, as well as financial leaders that benefit from wealth and asset management trends. Pay attention to some of the "old white horses" with more callbacks and attractive valuations.

Anxin Securities: the market is likely to fluctuate upward, and "carbon neutralization" is still the core thread.

Anxin Securities said that the Evergrande incident will not reverse the structural cattle under the desolation of assets, and the financial risk has always been under the monitoring and control of the policy level. on the contrary, the leading state-owned real estate companies will usher in the opportunity, which will be a good opportunity to lay out a new round of market after the Mid-Autumn Festival. At the current time, we continue to be optimistic about the market: short-term Sino-US relations frequently release improvement signals to boost market risk appetite; Taper expectations gradually become clearer after the FOMC meeting in September, providing a more favorable time window for the operation of domestic monetary policy, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to improve, and the market is likely to continue the upward trend of volatility.

Structurally, carbon neutralization is still the core thread. Energy consumption double control plus code and power shortage actually point to the same core problem: the proportion of clean energy in the energy structure is not enough, and the new energy generation system (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, grid matching, new energy operation) will continue to improve and vigorously promote. Photovoltaic wind power plate prosperity is still high, and the recent performance of the new energy operation plate valuation also has room to improve.

Configuration suggested to continue to grasp the shock upward market, shareholding festival, and continue to revolve around the "carbon neutralization" core main line. Industry concern: brokerage, photovoltaic, wind power, new energy operation, new energy automobile chain, state-owned enterprise real estate, etc., the theme focuses on Huawei concept, export chain.

Societe Generale Securities: after experiencing ups and downs, Science and Technology has reached a point of time worthy of bargain-hunting layout and bottom excavation.

There is no systemic risk in the market, and positive signals are emerging. At the structural level, after experiencing the bumps of "bottom and top", Kechuang has reached a point in time worthy of bargain-hunting layout and bottom excavation.

In addition to science and technology, we can also lay out two directions for the left side of the fourth quarter. 1) consumption: after a substantial adjustment since the beginning of the year, the valuation of the consumer sector has reached a relatively reasonable range, the valuation switch will be ushered in at the end of the year, and the policy risk of the industry is expected to ease by the end of the year. Moreover, the phased relaxation of Sino-US relations and the return of foreign investment will also support the consumer sector.

Therefore, the consumer sector is expected to usher in repair. 2) New infrastructure: the economy is declining rapidly, the pressure on steady growth is increasing, and the physical workload is gradually falling to the ground at the end of the year. New infrastructure represented by 5G base stations, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, big data Center, UHV, charging piles and intercity rail transit is expected to become the direction of financial focus.

Investment strategy: embrace the long-term, embrace the general direction, in order to beat the short. Continue to bargain-hunting layout to "specialize in special new" and scientific creation "Little Giant" as the representative of the high-quality growth core line. 1) high-end manufacturing (semiconductor industry chain, military industry chain, etc.), 2) new energy chain (new energy materials, lithium devices, new energy vehicle industry chain, intelligent driving, etc.), 3) AIoT (computer, communications, electronics), 4) life sciences (biomedicine, medical devices, medical services, seeds, etc.).

Tianfeng Securities: the hard-tech track meets the layout opportunity again.

From late July to August, the turnover rate of several hard-tech tracks reached a very high level and began to decline, corresponding to several tracks began to appear phased pullback, internal differentiation and so on. Energy storage, semiconductors, photovoltaic, military, new energy adjustment range compared with the review of the empirical law, there is little room for further significant decline. At the same time, the calendar effect shows that in the fourth quarter of each year, the market will lay out the direction of the next year's high boom in advance. Taken together, the opportunity for relayout of the hard-tech track may have emerged.

Guohai Securities: focus on consumption, big finance and big infrastructure when changing styles.

Since July, the economy began to decline rapidly, and the third quarter began to enter a profit downward cycle with a marked decline in profit growth and a peak decline in ROE (TTM). It should be noted that due to changes in the policy environment, the market still has some structural opportunities in the earnings downward cycle.

From the perspective of style, after the profit enters the downward period, the dominant industries often appear in finance, growth and consumption, and the dominant style often has the relative advantage of performance. the continuous interpretation of the science and technology industry cycle and event catalysis are the necessary conditions for growth dominance, consumption and financial performance are more stable, and it is possible to achieve phased excess returns.

Back to the present, since the third quarter of this year, the rotation of the market style has experienced the growth from May to July and the cycle from August to September. The cyclical sector has become more sensitive to changes in demand, blunted to changes in supply, and the ratio of performance to price is gradually reducing. the direction of the follow-up rotation can focus on consumption with relatively stable profitability, large finance benefiting from stable growth policies and major infrastructure that is countercyclical.

Shanxi Securities: the technology industry continues to maintain a high growth rate, and there is still room for consumption to pick up.

The upstream sector ended its strong performance this week, while the consumer sector rebounded somewhat. In addition, trading volume has shrunk this week, and on-site funds are gradually shifting to the new main line. From the point of view of the overall valuation of A shares, the overall PEG level of A shares is in the historical median level, and the performance-to-price ratio is still high.

In the medium to long term, the technology industry continues to maintain a high growth rate, consumer themes still have room for recovery, A-share overall fundamentals support is strong, the index long-term shock upward trend continues.

This week cycle plate and consumer plate alternate performance, plate volatility is larger. The price-to-book ratio of the raw material sector is at an all-time high, the plate lacks the logic of long-term growth, commodities such as coal and steel are affected by dual control and multi-land power cuts, and downstream demand is reduced, so investors are advised to avoid the risk of plate adjustment in the future.

The valuations of consumer growth sectors such as medicine, food and beverage, electronics and communications are already at short-term lows and there is limited room for continued adjustment. After low consolidation, the relevant sectors will usher in expectations and valuation improvements as the macro-economy recovers. In the new week, it is recommended to pay attention to the medical and military industry plate, and in the medium to long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the information technology sector.

Guosheng Securities: the pre-festival market is likely to rest and recuperate, and it is expected to usher in a counterattack after the festival.

When the Mid-Autumn Festival came back, the domestic market was in no danger, the stock market fluctuated widely, and the bond market also picked up to a certain extent. Near the long holiday, the recent transaction activity has cooled down, and the focus of the market has begun to shift to the fourth quarter. There has been an obvious deviation between northward going northward and financing since late September, which actually reflects the differences between internal and external funds on risk pricing. At the same time, the trend of Hong Kong stocks and A shares is also divided, which is essentially caused by different understandings of domestic and foreign funds, including real estate credit risk and policy trend.

The recent energy consumption "double control" aggravates the pressure of economic stagflation, but there is no need to worry about the market pricing for stagflation. Combined with the historical calendar effect, the market is likely to rest and recuperate before the National Day holiday, while it is expected to usher in a counterattack after the holiday; from the income characteristics, the three-quarter results have a strong power to explain the rise and fall of the company after the holiday.

In the context of continued price resilience and obvious relative performance advantages, continue to be optimistic about the performance of upstream varieties, with emphasis on recommendation: coal, chemical industry, aluminum / small metals, natural gas and shipping; the trend of unilateral dominance of growth has turned to the suggestion of maintaining gradual increase in value stocks, undervalued recommendation: brokerage, construction, electricity, consumer core assets and Hong Kong stock Internet leader suggested left layout Pay attention to the direction of new infrastructure development. In addition, we can focus on the industries that benefit from the relaxation of trade between China and the United States.