Haitong: the third wind this year is blowing towards undervalued big financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing.
There have been two winds in the market this year. The new energy industry chain from the end of March to July stems from the higher-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles, and the resource stocks from the end of July to the present are due to the rapid rise in product prices. The third wind has arrived, with the promotion of stable growth policies and positive signals in Sino-US relations, big financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries are expected to benefit. Drawing lessons from history, the peak of the bull market is characterized by public happiness, balanced waiting: hard technology, big finance, infrastructure-related manufacturing.
King's strategy: structural disturbance rather than systemic risk holding to wait for the October market
Since late July, the A-share market has seen both a significant rise in the index center and a trillion-dollar turnover for 46 consecutive trading days. At this point, new dynamics and paradigms are brewing: 1) domestic consumption, real estate and other data continue to weaken, and there is a consensus on the expected direction of the economic downturn, especially the pressure on the balance sheets of low-and middle-income groups. will promote the transmission and spread of broad money to broad credit. 2) under the background of double control of energy consumption, although it is difficult to alleviate the squeeze of raw material prices on the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches in the short term, considering the boundary between stable growth and stable employment, the most prominent time of production restriction policy and the contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass. 3) overseas, although the pace of Taper of the Federal Reserve is gradually approaching, under the background of full expectations, it is difficult for US stocks to be significantly impacted. Considering the phase difference between domestic and foreign monetary policy, the domestic equity market is more endogenous. Superimposed on the rapprochement of Sino-US relations, the approach of the G20 summit, and the orderly handling of domestic risk events, the parent side gradually issued efforts and expected amendments, and suggested holding shares to celebrate the festival, waiting for the market to rise in October in the golden autumn.
Guosheng Strategy: the layout thought before and after the long Holiday
What are the characteristics of the stock market performance before and after National Day holiday? Reviewing the market performance in the past 15 years, we find that: (1) the market is usually weak before the long holiday, especially in the week approaching the long holiday, the performance of the wide-base index is low, mainly by shock consolidation; 2, after the return of the long holiday, the stock market rose sharply, and the stock index closed with a winning rate of 80-90% in the week after National Day holiday, and the average increase was about 2-3%. 3. If the time window is extended to one month (30 days), the winning rate of each index after the long holiday is reduced to 70-80%, but the average increase of the weight index is further raised to 3-5%.
Guangdong opening strategy: selecting opportunities from pre-festival trend back test and three-quarter report forecast
Next week, A shares will usher in the last week of trading before the National Day. According to historical reviews, the probability of both the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem Index rising in the week before National Day in the past decade is 60%, while the Prev Index is up 40%. As far as the industry is concerned, the sectors with higher rising probability in the week before the festival in China in the past decade are automobiles, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, mining, electronics, food and beverages, medicine and biology, leisure services, and national defense and military industry, with a rising probability of more than 60%. Among them, the food and beverage and automobile sectors rose by an average of 0.97% and 0.92% in the week before National Day in the past decade, mainly due to the coming National Day holiday, which is the peak season for traditional consumption. Directly benefit the big consumer sector.
East Asian Qianhai Strategy: from "valuation switching" to "Winter restlessness"
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, as the monetary environment tends to be loose and the credit of commercial banks accelerates, the inflection point of macro liquidity is expected to appear in the middle of the fourth quarter. From the perspective of corporate earnings, the market is expected to form a new consensus on the medium-term profit trend of the growth sector after the three quarterly reports. From the perspective of risk appetite, the G20 summit in late October and the United Nations Climate change Conference in early November are expected to be important catalysts for improving market risk sentiment. From the market level, with the early adjustment of the consumer sector valuation switch market as scheduled, superimposed the future growth of the main track in winter restless market, the fourth quarter of the market center is expected to further move up.
Open source strategy: holding cycle stocks for the holidays
The adjustment of cyclical stocks has not exceeded our expectations, the trading risk has been released, and after the adjustment, the need for "volatility management" that we have stressed before is also reduced. The next scenario, whether it is dual-control deviation correction or a rebound in demand, will bring opportunities. Adjust the structure and hold cyclical shares to celebrate National Day. The recommended order and related beneficiary targets are: first, the rebound in global and domestic demand, crude oil chain (PetroChina, COSCO Haineng, China Merchants Steamship, Jerry shares), Chemical Fiber (Xinfengming), Copper (Zijin Mining Group), Bank (Jiangsu Bank), Aviation (Air China Limited), Shipbuilding (China Shipbuilding) Second, the variety of the global long-term "stagflation" pattern under the energy transformation: brokerage (Societe Generale Securities), Iron and Steel (New Steel), Coal (Yanzhou Coal) and Gold; third, the value repair of "public utilities" valuation under the new pattern: electric power (Huaneng International), real estate (Poly Development).
CITIC: strengthen the layout of value allocation in the fourth quarter
Speed up the style switch, dilute the short-term game, strengthen the value allocation, and lay out the market in the fourth quarter. First, the power production restrictions under the double control of energy consumption are spread around, suppressing supply-side expectations; real estate credit reconstruction affects real estate construction investment, suppresses demand-side expectations, and the market's expectations for economic growth are revised down. Second, it is expected that the policy will respond quickly, the correction of power and production restrictions will be accelerated, and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will gradually appear, alleviating fundamental expectations that the domestic economy will perform better in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. Third, macro liquidity is still in a window of ample stage, with the release of local real estate credit risk, macro liquidity will be more relaxed, and it is expected that the comprehensive reserve reduction in the fourth quarter will hit the ground in October. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to continue to grasp style switching, play down short-term games, strengthen value allocation, and lay out the subdivided areas of high-boom consumption and medicine in the value sector. and select the machinery, military industry, semiconductors and lithium electricity that are expected to exceed expectations in the three quarterly reports in the manufacturing and technology sectors.