This report is read as follows:
The company's long-term sales model of "quantity but not price" has not been taken seriously by the market, with the long-term agreement price basically consistent with the market price after September, the performance is expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year; coal, chemical industry, glass fiber business will be incremental in the future.
Main points of investment:
Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating. The price of coking coal has risen sharply, and the long-term agreement price of the company has been basically in line with the market price since September. 400000 tons of PVC is about to be put into production, and the chemical industry is expected to make a substantial turnaround. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 38.1,94.1 and 9.73 billion yuan in 2021-2023, with EPS of 1.08,2.66,2.75 yuan respectively. Cover for the first time, give the target price 12.82 yuan, "increase" rating.
Different from the market point of view: the company's long association of coal is "guaranteed quantity but not price". Although the long association of the company's coal sales accounts for more than 80%, but unlike the quarterly price adjustment of the "quantity and price" category, the company's long association adjusts prices frequently on a monthly basis. And since August, because the spot price of clean coal has risen too fast, the company has increased the frequency of price adjustment, and the pricing trend is basically consistent with the spot price. The average sales price of clean coal of 2021H1 Company is 1118 yuan / ton, while the board price (including tax) of Xingtai No. 3 coke clean coal car is 3350 yuan / ton on September 10th. After increasing the frequency of price adjustment, the sales of clean coal will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the company will enjoy the high boom dividend in the industry.
Hebei coking coal leader, there will still be increments in the future. The company has a coal production capacity of 33.3 million tons, with an equity of 92%, of which coking coal is mainly located in Hebei mining area, with an equity production capacity of 25.34 million tons, accounting for 83%. The coal production capacity under construction is 1.5 million tons, of which 600000 tons of coking coal is the main type of project coal in the West well of Xingtai Coal Mine, which is expected to be put into production in mid-2022. Affected by imports and domestic production restrictions, the supply of coking coal falls short of demand, and prices are expected to rise steadily.
Benefit from the project put into production, chemical & glass fiber business profits will be greatly increased. The company has 200000 tons of PVC production capacity, 2021H1 net profit of-80 million yuan, another 400000 tons of projects are expected to be put into production this year, the new project uses the "ethylene method" the current price difference is 6000 yuan / ton, superimposed ton fixed cost dilution, chemical business will greatly reverse losses. In addition, benefiting from the commissioning of 100000 tons of glass fiber in April, the net profit of glass fiber business in the first half of the year was 100 million, and the new production line contributed 97 million. With the commissioning of another 100000-ton production line in 2022, the profit can be increased.
Risk hint. 1. Iron and steel production will be reduced more than expected; 2. Let go of imported coal; 3. The macro economy is not as good as expected.
